michelangelosmonkey
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Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Really young teams rarely win right away. They ran into a hot pitcher and the Astros are a bad match for the Sox pitching staff (power staff against the best fast ball hitting team in the leauge). Still to draw wild conclusions on 4 games? To say they are worse is just being dark. -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
OMG...so no one here sees internal growth with: Name Age Garrett Crochet 22 Andrew Vaughn 23 Luis Robert 23 Eloy Jimenez 24 Nick Madrigal 24 Romy Gonzalez 24 Gavin Sheets 25 Dylan Cease 25 Michael Kopech 25 Yoan Moncada 26 No one has a core of 26 and younger guys that are as good as this group. And we have no bad contracts on the books. And right now we have a top five payroll...we will b**** about everything. -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
That's fair but at this point in their window I think a teams payroll becomes more important than the prospects. It's one of the problems with handing out a $20 million per for four years to Conforto...we're going to want that payroll flexibility in 23, 24 to resign Gio, make a trade deadline splash, extend Vaughn. -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
The negativity here is just unbelievable. Here we are coming off a 93 win season that wasn't even better because of terrible injury luck, we got young stars all over the diamond, we have five starting pitchers that could win the Cy Young (Keuchel was top five in Cy Young voting ONE YEAR AGO), the defense up the middle is as good as any team, we have a bullpen that had great pieces and we've just added two of the best arms available making them arguably the best bullpen in the league...Vegas and every power ranking around has us as a top five team...and post after post after post is "everything sucks" and the only thing that can fix this team is if we get this aging, below average defensive outfielder who had a career worst season (Keuchel is done but Conforto just had a one off??) whom the Mets trying desperately to win, with money no object, and knowing their players better than anyone say, hard pass? Let's see how things play out. It's in the 50's tomorrow....spring is in the air...can we just try to pretend we are at the most exciting time ever to be a Sox fan? -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Wait until next year...I have argued before if you don't look at farm system rankings but rankings of a teams young players 23-26 and very young players 22-18 the White Sox would be near the top in both. The problem for the Sox farm system is all of the high end talent is either in the majors or newly arrived. If you can't get excited about Vega, Montgomery, Colas, Kath, Cespedes and all the high school arms...give it a year. -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I'm not sure why this is controversial. You are basically exchanging 28 year old Olson for 32 year old Freeman. Each with a .900ish OPS last year. One is much cheaper. This is the kind of cold bloodedness that I hope the White Sox display. If Abreu has another good year this year and then wants a 5 year $100 million contract...I HOPE they don't get sentimental and offer it to him. -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Before we anoint Nick...he played 6 games after May last year. He had a major injury the year before. He had a major injury in his last year in college. I loved his potential but is he not the positional equivalent of Rodon? -
Rodon to SF, 2 years, $44 million (opt out after year 1)
michelangelosmonkey replied to Heads22's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I was begging for Rodon to come back...and have been in mourning since...he's exactly what the team needs...a power pitching lefty...if he's as good going forward as he was in 2021 you have five aces. But honestly...you can't listen to what management says, you have to watch what they do. No one knows Rodon better than Katz. I have great respect for Katz. Katz basically said...not at any price. If they really believed he was ready to become a stud for three years they would have inked him to 3/60 before the lockout. If they were certain he would pass physicals they would have given him a QO. I just think they think they were dealing with a ticking bomb. -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Ugh...I'm NOT talking about Vaughn being the RF forever. He seems to be coordinated and smart...just slow...and has a potentially amazing bat...and he's 24...and 1b is blocked...and he's cheap...and he fixes one of three problems you have. I don't see a good 2b solution internally and I'd rather spend money on pitching. i think Rodon over Keuchel is WAY greater than Conforto over Vaughn. -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I would think Engel plays a fair bit as the starter, and yes, comes in most games in the 7th inning as a defensive replacement. And yes, I think Vaughn has a chance to be a hall of fame hitter. IF we can develop him so he can play multiple positions he is even more valuable. I mean honestly we talk about these guys like they are car parts...you can't put the carburetor where the windshield wiper goes. These are human athletes that play baseball. Vaughn never played outfield before and they put him out there and he was OK. As he figures out angles and positioning he should be better. To just categorically say...too slow...he will be terrible...I think is unfair. I also think it is unfair to say Eloy will always be a terrible outfielder. These are 24 year old athletes and they should get better with experience. Look at Tim Anderson...he was NOT a good short stop in the minors but he was newish at baseball....he was a -1.5dWar in 2017 and now he's a +1dWar. There's a chance for hope. At the same time there are plenty on here that want to pay Nick Casellanos, the 30 year old with a career -10dWar, and there is NO CHANCE he is going to develop into an OK fielder. I would take Vaughn over NC for many reasons. -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
1) Verlander in Detroit in his 34th year pitched 170 inning with a 4.1 FIP which was his worst in a decade. 2) Poor old Custer 3) clearly the trade was consummated on the 10th but it was in the works, I suspect, for weeks. 4) I use WAR...and he was at 1.9 the year before. Yes he had a down year but not a terrible year...and was off to a strong start in 2016. Listen...you win the argument because it turned out badly...and because of the lottery ticket...historically badly. My only point is you can go find instances where getting a 34 year old pitcher turned out good. Trading assets for Bassitt has every chance of being Shields 2.0. Or it could turn out great. It's only after the fact that we can be confidently right or wrong. (Note I didn't like the trade at the time...mostly because I was optimistic about Eric Johnson...wrong and stupid). -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
1) So was Verlander...and then he had a resurgence. 2) I think fate forced the White Sox to go for it...no one thought Sale would be THAT good, no one thought Quintana was anything. Rodon was looking great as a rookie. Abreu and Eaton looked like stars and they started out 24-12. We are mad that they went for it? No we are mad Shields sucked. 3) They were making the trade in the midst of their hot run...way before trade deadline. A top four of Sale, Q, Rodon and Big game was tantalizing. 4) He wasn't a turd...he was a very good 3-4 starter. The owner was mad he wasn't Chris Sale because he paid him like Chris Sale. 5) They didn't HAVE to win the division...just make the playoffs...and ride a couple of stud pitchers to the WS like Arizona did a few years before with Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. The trade was only moronic because they threw in a lottery ticket that happened to be the Powerball winner. Never, ever put a powerball ticket in a birthday card. It can only turn out badly. -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I feel like we have a potential all-star at 7 of 9 positions...he's not wrong. Go get Rodon and Tepera and hold your assets to the trade deadline. -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
So Jack...what is worse? I feel like Vaughn catches everything he can get to...but he's super slow. With smart positioning and his improving learning curve he can be a Conforto level outfielder. Manny could get to things he just couldn't catch them....that's not fixable. -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Shields had put up 19 WAR in the previous 5 seasons and had a +.7 WAR in 11 starts that year. His ERA was 3.0 after 10 starts and then he had that horrible start where he gave up 10 runs in 2 innings. You could, at the time, say that presaged a miserable decline (which it did) or you could say it was an outlier and we were getting a great 4th starter to help us reach the playoffs. It wasn't stupid...it didn't work. -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Yes it's terrible about Adolfo...he's only 24 and put up an .850 OPS at Birmingham last year. I just wish they had him one more year. As for Cespedes...he put up an .800+ OPS in his first taste of baseball after being out for a year and a half. He was terrible in the AFL but SSS? The point isn't that I hate Conforto...but there is always a budget and the question is...is this the guy you want to pay $20 million a year for the next four years. You talk about offensively terrible for Cespedes...Conforto WAS terrible last year...it IS a risk that he's declining. I want the window to be open as long as it can be...part of that is not getting a big acquisition wrong...when you have potential solutions near term and long term. -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
You mean they were as bad as the RF the last time they won the World Series? But young and cheap and part of the future? Remember you have Engel as your defensive outfielder probably 40% of the time. Vaughn was brand new at RF and will get better. Shields is mostly a situational piece. And I know you hate this but...not one of them is as bad as Manny Ramirez in the outfield with his ten time All Star appearances and multiple World Series wins. -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
They didn't look terrible at the time of the trade. They were risky...as all trades are. You know how many on here were trashing the Lance Lynn trade and fitting Dane Dunning for his Cooperstown hat? Justin Verlander in 2017 looked a LOT like James Shields in 2016...but then he went back to superhuman and Shields continued to be trash. IF Shields had instead become 2018 Verlander...and you have Sale, Quintana and very promising young Rodon it could have worked. Don't get me wrong...I MUCH prefer how the White Sox have done it now...with a dozen all-star caliber players instead of four. But at the time they were trying to play the hand they were dealt...Sale/Quintana/Abreu/Eaton were too good to allow them top picks but not good enough to push them forward...so you play for the inside straight. It didn't work...oh well. -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I don't get the love for Conforto....unless they get him for one year. I think three of their most interesting prospects are RF...Adolfo, Cespedes and Colas. I think there is a real chance one of them is ready for 2023 opening day. Cespedes and Colas fit in perfectly with the idea of a young team and maybe an all Cuban outfield. I think ONE season of Sheets/Vaughn/Engel would be as good as Conforto (who has not been a great fielder) and much cheaper. Vaughn needs to be hitting every day because I think he has potential to be the best hitter on a team with a lot of great hitters and having positional flexibility is the hot new concept. Use the money on Rodon and maybe offer a Montgomery/Vera ++ package for Ketel Marte to play 2b and cover for Robert in CF periodically. -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Plus Rodon is a lefty. He fits their window and their rotation so perfectly. It would be a big gamble to give him 3 for $60 million but man sometimes you have to roll the dice. If he's past his injury history and comes back as a stronger version of the 2021 Rodon...man they win multiple World Series. -
Offseason Part 2 - Lets the Rumors & Action Begin
michelangelosmonkey replied to Chisoxfn's topic in Pale Hose Talk
And they also had Sale, Quintana, Eaton and Abreu who all looked like rising stars. Sometimes you push the accelerator prematurely. Shark was coming off a 4WAR season and looked like maybe he was a rising star. Evaluating trades in retrospect is stupid. It didn't work. Neither did the Shields trade 18 months later. I think in that time Hahn/KW looked at it that if they could sneak into the playoffs with 85 wins and then get Sale and Quintana to pitch five games in each playoff series they had a shot. Never worked, oh well. Try something new. Still I agree with Two gun about the Bassitt trade...I'm just not convinced he's good. He was great in Oakland but outside of Oakland just a guy...he's going to be 33 and a free agent after this year. Give up Adolfo, Rory and one of the high school pitchers for him but not much more. -
The thing that terrifies me about trading AV is looking at the comparables with Mike Schmidt. MS and AV both debuted to much acclaim at 23, each had a bit over 400 at bats, each put up a "disappointing" OPS around .700, and neither could touch right handed pitching (almost identical .610 OPS). And then, as expected Mike Schmidt at 24 began destroying baseball. I'm not saying AV will become a Hall of Famer...but it's not ridiculous to say that is his upside. Also note...MS career OPS vs RH pitchers settled in just under .900 over his next 7000 at bats. A bit of patience hoping for greatness.
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Yes...that's what dWar measures. You sacrifice defense for offense. Frank Howard had a three year run with an average -3 dWAR and positive 2.5 WAR. It doesn't matter how you get your WAR. To keep suggesting that a bad defender will ruin the team is just wrong.
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Yes I said the combo platter would hit .850 OPS which is not impossible given platoon advantages and obvious upside...it was you that compared them to Daniel Palka who was bad offensively and defensively. To suggest they would be legendarily bad is wrong. 1/3 of the innings will be played by an elite defender...and Vaughn who never played RF before was competent. Yes this is not perfect but neither is it terrible (and Conforto is NOT a good defender..-0.6 dWar). Anyway the larger point is you have limited resources to fix three holes...2b, RF and 5th starter. I'd rather see Combo +Rodon than Comforto + Keuchel.
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That is our #1, 2 and 3 prospects. I think you are dramatically undervaluing that package based on a 19 year old #1 draft pick who looked very good in his first year in pro ball, a top 10 international prospect from two years ago who had a tough time adjusting to American ball, and a $1 prospect who after two major surgeries and sitting two years came back last year and held his own in the majors. If that package doesn't get Marte...well they can keep Marte.