michelangelosmonkey

I'm not sure Carlos Rodon situation comes along very often. You have a pitcher who basically didn't pitch for two full seasons...then comes back and is arguably the best pitcher in baseball for the first four months of the season. Then pitches only 28 innings the last two months. He averaged barely over 5 innings per start. Then the team that has him doesn't offer him a QO. If you are a team on the outside trying to make sense of this you sure would be cautious, wouldn't you? I think half the people on this board would be disappointed if the "only" starting pitching move we made this winter was resigning CR for 3 years. I think there is a scenario where CR is the best pitcher in baseball the next three years...hard to make that case for any of the other more expensive free agents pitchers. Go look at Chris Carpenters career, Adam Wainwright, John Smoltz. Lot's of guys with arm troubles in their late 20's that are great in their 30's.

I respect you Balta but this idea that you know what Boras will do is more omniscience than I'm willing to offer you. What we know with certainty is the mystery. Sox granted Boras and CR a benefit worth $20 million (your estimate) and will cost them a draft pick? It's intriguing. If he signs Poppy's deal with someone else...it is #2....if he signs Poppy's deal with us it's #3. IF he signs 5/$100 with someone...you shrug and move on.

More sense? I think its possible but at that point in 2020 NO ONE wanted Rodon and the idea we would have to agree not to guarantee $18 million for the 2022 season for Rodon to sign just seems like a ":why bother". It's not like the franchise tag in football where he would be FORCED to sign with us if he had an amazing year. The QO is only a tiny impediment to other teams signing him. So we all agree that the QO is an asset...and one that the White Sox have thrown away...it's one of the most intriguing questions in the off season. I have to believe Hahn is playing this like a chess match...we move then what will they likely move so I can make my next move. #2 is the easy one...they think his arm IS about to fall off...they are in a greater position to know this than anyone and if they think that there is no way they make a QO offer because CR would just sign it and get $18 million. The other option is way trickier....why would you just throw away that asset if you aren't stupid and you didn't have to? I just think there HAS to be behind the door negotiations with Boras. It's much easier for Boras to shop CR if there isn't a draft pick involved...so if we do this for you...what will you do for us? It would also be a plus in CR mind...not only was he on a great team where he liked a lot of the players...but they gave him a chance this year when no one else did...and then didn't attach the QO. Goodwill with the agent, goodwill with CR doesn't mean we get him for cheaper...just a tie goes to the White Sox.

Yes but who ISN'T a huge risk? Robbie Ray is two years older and as recently as 2020 had an ERA of nearly 7. Yes he's coming off a great year...but he's pitched 8 years in the majors and has had a WAR above 1 twice. Plus the predictions are he will be 4/$100m and costs a draft pick. Would you bet your life that he would have a better year than Keuchel? Keuchel's had 6 seasons with WAR above 2. Yes Ray's stuff is sexier and he had a much better 2021...but Keuchel's already on the team and had a MUCH better 2020. Stroman? Would be our 5th righty and probably #5...5/$90 plus draft pick would be a lot to pay for a guy that is 31 and been a 2 WAR pitcher. Max, Verlander and Kershaw have been amazing...but huge risk. Again part of the goal I think should be threading the needle and getting multiple WS's. Rodon was 3rd overall pick in the draft, had brief touches with greatness and then arm trouble. There are pitchers that have a history of early arm trouble that then come through it. I detailed in an earlier thread about Mike Minor...missed two complete seasons and then put up 14 WAR in the next three. Rodon was amazing last year...what everyone thought he could be. Yes he wore down after 130 inning but he basically didn't pitch for two years before that...building up arm strength IS a thing. A dominating lefty power pitcher is what the White Sox need. There are really only three reasons the White Sox didn't put a QO on Rodon--1, Soxtalk preferred belief that the White Sox are idiots, 2. They think his arm is about to fall off and they are worried he would accept the free $18 million. 3. They are keeping everyone guessing...playing footsie with Boras and Rodon and if his market is soft they have good will to get him for say 3/$50, Of all the moves they could make this winter I would most like to see that.

Ohmigod...let it go. The White Sox took a calculated gamble on creating a post season relief core that would be legendary. That IS a path to World Series victory...you get 9 innings to score and the other team only gets 6. And you know what? It didn't frigging work. Kimbrell for whatever reason was other worldly until July and then was bad. It happens. Sad they didn't fix RF...you know who was the PERFECT RF fix? 27 year old lefty power hitter, strong defense, reasonable contract for 2021/2022...strong career and had put up a 4.2 WAR up to the trade deadline? Go ask the Yankees how Joey Gallo worked for them. Of course Gallo would have cost us Madrigal and Crochett...but I know you'd be on the board bitching about it if we had made that trade too. It's so fun to follow a sport and then look in retrospect at what went wrong and scream to the heavens how stupid we are for everything that didn't go right. .

But why Gausman or Stroman over Rodon? All three are coming off career years but Rodon was way better....and OK he wore down at the end of the year but that is the same excuse you gave for Gausman's late season failings. Further...Rodon is a lefty...we go on and on in this board about getting a lefty hitter but having a starting rotation of 5 righties seems a bigger problem. I still think Rodon is their secret signing. He hit 99 mph in that playoff game so it's not like his arm was falling off. I also don't think Rodon gets a mega deal because of the worries of his past. I also wonder about Keuchel. He had a terrible year but he's had a good career...if you are sending $7 million to the Mets in that trade that means you only clear $11 off the books. OK it's not nothing but I can see a key role for him as your long man and swing starter. The guy was fifth in Cy Young voting as recently as 2020 and won the gold glove this year. Maybe he's done but he has always seemed to me like Buehrle...crafty lefty that is a great fielder. Buehrle had one of his worse years ever at 34...and then followed it up with two of his best years. Giving away assets makes me nervous.

Following the tea leaves on this it seems like a multi-year offer to Rodon is my bet. His market is depressed...no one knows his arm strength more than the White Sox...they were kind to him and his agent by not attaching the QO...and man when he was good last year he was Corbin Burnes good...and what do we need more than a TOR lefty? Sure he wore out at the end but it seems like CaliSoxfan was predicting that all year. You just don't ramp up from 0 to 190 innings in a year. He got up to 120 last year and could be 180 this year. 3 years $50 million with injury clauses? That's Kimbrell's money...so you trade him and still have money for Semien...Vaughn in RF. Let's go get a World Series.

I've been saying for months the Sox will have a top five payroll. I think the goal for everyone is World Series. I just hate the theory that if you don't pay the top guy the top money you are stupid. We already have our $300 million guys...Robert, Jiminez, Moncado, TA...we just don't have to pay them that...so we can allocate the money to mid level contracts. Still hoping for one mega deal...Semien or Max...but it's nice we don't have money tied up in bad contracts.

Yes why can't we emulate the Phillies, Mets and Padres strategy...$300 million contract guys basically guarantee the playoffs.

I mean...elite pitchers are elite pitchers against everyone. Corbin Burnes this year had a .477 OPS vs righties and .561 versus lefties. Rodon's splits were virtually identical against lefty and righty. I think the question is would you rather have a righty top 25 bat hit against a righty or a lefty top 50 bat against a righty. Paul Goldschmidt equivalent vs Avisail Garcia (23 vs 49 OPS) equivalent but one has a handedness advantage. I'd prefer the great hitter vs the good hitter with handedness advantage. I'm not really sure who you can trade the 24 year old Vaughn earning $550,000 for that would have the same upside. If we are shooting the moon with this rebuild...yes cheap controllable core pieces shouldn't be traded. Brian Reynolds? He's two years older, $4 million more and about to hit Arb 2...meaning he's about to get a lot more expensive.

This is so right. I think we have all twisted ourselves in knots over this righty/lefty business. If we think, as I suspect all of us do, that both Eloy and Vaughn will be top 25 hitters...which this past year was an .870 OPS (Marcus Semien)...it is nearly impossible to reach that without hitting at least .800+ versus righties. Vaughn struggled against righties his rookie year...I showed in another thread that he and Mike Schmidt's rookie years were very similar...MS was terrible against righties his rookie year and then hit .880 against them the next 18 years. We are also twisted over this defense thing...Abreu is 35 this coming season. His end is in sight...Vaughn will be at first for ten years...we are going to forgo that because for one year he has to play right? As for the bad outfielders...really...you have hitters the caliber of Jose Ramirez in right and in left...and both are young enough to be competent defensively...you don't want that? Finally they are both cost controlled for five more years. For our window to be long we need affordable young players. Don't touch these guys!!!

It's ok to be irrational over some players...I'm actually having fun researching hall of famers that were terrible in their rookie years. Mike Schmidt at the same age as Vaughn (23) had a slightly lower OPS and many more strikeouts. He was also a rh hitter that was TERRIBLE against rh pitchers (.600 OPS his rookie year) The next year he put up an OPS of over .900 and maintained that .900 OPS for the next 17 years (and career OPS of .890 against rh pitchers after that first season). Sometimes when you see greatness it's actually there and baseball requires patience. One of the arguments for having Vaughn as everyday RF this year is just to unlock his bat. Abreu's 35 this year...Vaughn is 24. Abreu is stubborn about playing 1B. Give him another year and then start the transition in 2023.

Honestly...I know he's young and he's a rookie but Rickie Henderson put up an OPS under .700...was thrown out stealing 11 times, nearly a -2 dWAR. Can't hit, can't field, can't run...he was a wasted pick and we need to try and trade him while the rest of the league is still fooled by his "potential" and ignores the truth. --Tray in 1980.

There is a lot to like about Conforto and I think it is entirely reasonable to say that Vaughn will only be a 2 WAR guy in RF next year. But Vaughn costs nothing and Conforto is going to cost $20 million a year. Meanwhile Semien will put up a 5 WAR and Romy a 1.5 so you get an extra 3.5 WAR for an extra $23 million in salary. At this point the argument within Sox management is...we have $25 million extra to spend...what puts us over the top. I'm not going to war with you over Conforto...he's youngish and lefty and pretty good RF. I'd be OK with that...or with Semien or Robbie Ray...I just would prefer Semien with Vaughn in RF. It will be fascinating to see what the Sox do (and infuriating if they do nothing).

I'm not sure what your argument is...let's say his career average of 3.4 WAR. Can't VAughn do that? Semien's average WAR is 4.6. I'd pay a little more for that in a position where we don't have a player nearly as talented as Vaughn is in RF.

But in effect you are giving up free outs in the field or free outs at the plate. Sanchez was a GG 2b and would never give up an out in the field but was an automatic out at the plate and he can't find a job. All players strengths AND weaknesses will be magnified in the playoffs...or maybe it's just random because SSS. I think you are overly simplifying a legitimate argument. It's not Bad defense=bad player or good defense = good player. If we say player 1 is a 5 offense and 5 defense, and player two is a 9 offense and a 2 defense...player two would be better. I'm sure someone out there has done the analytics on it but I think for a year Vaughn in RF would be interesting. As for the wager...well they already have Engel who I think will figure in a lot to RF. It's not important for us to bet...but yes, I think they will spend more money at 2B this offseason than RF.

What do you think Semien will cost? I saw 6/$138 somewhere. A top five payroll is $190...and Sox are at $156. So let's say a $30 mill bump from that. If we get Semien for $23 per, trade Kimbrell's $16 and offer Rodon 3/$56 you could sign a relief pitchers for $5. It could work.

I think this is the point. We will have a budget. I think we drop $100 million + on a single contract this off season. The question isn't "Is Conforto good...because he is...he would be fine addition to the team and I wouldn't b****. But given we only get one...do you want Conforto in RF and Romy at 2b or do you want Vaughn in RF and Semien at 2b. That is an easy choice for me. I also would not bet $1000 that Conforto will end up with a higher WAR in RF than Vaughn...but I'd happily bet $1,000 that Semien has a higher WAR than Romy. I wouldn't mind getting in that time machine and undoing the Madrigal trade and then we could have confidently put money into Conforto but we are stuck with reality.

Yes and my point is you can build around offense or defense. Engel has elite defense and speed...he was hurt this past year...if we want defense first and save money for Semiens...why not just him instead of $100 million to Conforto? Or you could just use Vaughn and deal with his defensive learning curve.

You don't have to be a dick about it. I only use Manny as an example. I think it is entirely possible that in a full healthy year Jiminez and Vaughn can put up a combined .875 OPS. That's a LOT of offensive making up for a few missed fly balls.

Yes and we do have actual replacement outfielders (all the Cubans) in the system...we just need a two year fix and having Eloy and Vaugh hitting 75 homers and letting a few fly balls drop is ok

So the question is...do Eloy and Vaughn create more runs offensively than they subtract defensively. I think they will both be elite hitters and subpar defenders....Conforto has a negative dWar every year of his career. If defensive is so important why pay him $100 million? Are we certain going forward he will outhit Vaughn? OK he's lefty but elite right handed hitters HAVE to be good against right handed pitchers too or they can't put up .900 OPS. Manny Ramirez was one of the worst defenders of all time and yet managed to put up an average 5 WAR over a ten year period. You state conclusively that "an outfield can hide one bad defensive player..." but If you could replicate Manny Ramirez in RF and LF...don't you do it and let Robert just try to catch everything? Especially if by having those stone gloves in RF and LF you can add 40 homers at 2b?

I'm not sure how to properly value these things. Firstly I think Vaughn, Sheets and Jiminez are professional athletes under 25 and they can get better. And while I respect defense...you get to chose an outfield (in their prime): 1) Manny Ramirez, Greg Luzinski and Ken Griffey Jr or 2) Paul Blair, Max Kepler and Engel. Don't you win more with one than two? Bad defense doesn't matter if the offense is great, right? Derrick Jeter was a terrible defensive SS but went to a million all star games. Andrelton Simmons has had some of the greatest defensive years ever...would you trade Tim Anderson for him? Yes it was clownish watching Manny in Boston's outfield all those years while he was clubbing us over the head with his bat. I understand it would be nice to have someone good at both...but if we spend our big money on one player...isn't Semien's plus defensive and 40 homers at 2b way more valuable than a guy that will save some defensive runs in RF?

I'm pretty sure I agree with you on TA...but let's enjoy 2022,23, 24 with him and not worry about the second half of the window yet. They drafted his replacement this year. I also don't think you can be "definite" about who they will sign. Still I don't love RR...he had a great 2021 but do you want to pay a 30 year old pitcher coming off his career year? He's pitched a 1,000 innings, mostly in the NL, with a career FIP above 4. Rodon is younger, with less wear on the tires, better career FIP all in the AL and when he pitched he was elite in 2021. In fact I think the only reason they don't resign Rodon is if their medical people say his arm is going to fall off. Hahn said an interesting thing about the team having 1500 innings to pitch and needing to find the best pitchers to fill it. I feel like there is a re-think going on in baseball about that 32 start, 200 inning pitcher so getting Rodon as an elite 150 inning a year guy is really valuable. I suspect they agreed with Rodon and Boras to let Rodon try to get the best payday possible without a compensation pick attached...but give the White Sox a chance to swoop in at the end. Honestly there is not a better match for the Sox out there than the April-July Rodon and his end of the year fatigue and past injury history is going to drag down his price. Would a 5/$90 contract be crazy as long as you had a bunch of injury settlements built in?

??? You list six sort of random points that have nothing to do with my comment which was basically...it's untrue that White Sox are cheap when in a competitive window, and, Semien on this team and they will score 9 runs a game. But regarding your points: 1) Dodgers took 8 years to break through...playoffs are random and the White Sox are still very early in their window...almost all their star players are 26 or younger. 2) Truth...1994 was my most bitter year as a fan...that team was the best of my life. 3) Hahn threw out numbers in his presser about defensive alignments...not sure I really understood but clearly they are looking at numbers but different numbers than we are. This year was an amazingly complicated year with Eloy, Robert, Madrigal and Yaz missing vast amounts of the year, Leury played the 4th most games of any player and Keuchel had an ERA of over 5..if you told me those 6 things would happen and we would win 93 games...a fair person would say that TLR did an amazing job. 4) Come on...the offseason is 15 minutes in. It wouldn't shock me to see them trade Kimbrel and sign Rodon for 3/40. Or keep Kimbrel for a killer bullpen...or sign Robbie Ray. Let's see how it plays out. 5) They stunk in the playoffs....in a sport where we measure by hundreds of games you can't draw conclusions on 5. See Dodgers. 6) Why would the front office not try to win the WS? That is a ridiculous take. Last off season they added the fireman of the year and a finalist for the CY Young. Not every move worked out but this team is loaded with talent. I remember five years ago thinking the Nationals would win the WS as they were stacked...and it took years but they finally won it....I thought the same about the Dodgers...and it took them nearly a decade of 90 win teams. I thought the same about the Braves at the end of 2020. You bring together a ton of talent and then you wait for it to explode. This team will explode at some point...we are all too impatient.