ChiliIrishHammock24

Peavy44 just got kicked out of that group because everyone, as they should, piled on that Steve guy for that awful fake rumor about Harper willing to take a 1-2 year deal from the Cubs, and Peavy got VERY offended that no one believed his bestie Steve, and started cussing and yelling at everyone. He even posted a photo that the Steve guy supposedly took with Harper....on a public street, to PROVE that they are friends and he has inside knowledge.

You ok?

Just the idea of something that has been "In the works for 2 weeks and escalated very quickly" seems to me like a trade. I don't think a signing, other than by Machado/Harper, would garner this type of wording.

Agree

That's 12 top 100 guys. That seems very optimistic to me. My guesses would be, by June (since you're factoring in our 2019 1st RD draft pick) Kopech, Robert, Cease, Madrigal, *NEW GUY*, Dunning, Adolfo, Basabe will be top 100 guys on all lists. And then I think Collins and maybe Rutherford will be on maybe a list or two, possibly instead of Basabe. I don't think Hansen has a prayer to make a mid-season list. MAYBE an end-of-year list if he shoves and dominates AA in his 2017 form again.

Why would you have any reason not to buy it? Seems highly plausible, regardless.

Cool, 1 week too late for me, AB. Ugh.

Welp, neither of them did anything.

YOU MADE CHUCK CURSE. You monster.

He seems like an easy guy to root for as well. Seems fun and loveable. Have you seen his video from the Indians fan fest last year where he went undercover and was hitting bombs in the cages with a drawstring bag on? I feel like he would be a fun guy to have.

All he ever seems to have *scoops* for is things that are positive for the Cubs. Never seems to have any sources that point to anything other than the Cubs have unlimited money, are going to make a huge splash, and everyone wants to play for them.

I'm friends with a Reds fan from college and he is thrilled with the deal right now because it means Homer Bailey is gone. That's all Reds fans care about, that Bailey is gone. Don't care about adding $3M to their payroll because of this swap, don't care about losing prospects, just never have to see him again. That's fucking wild. I told him how FURIOUS I would be if the Sox had to give up Pilkington and Sheets (Sox next 2 draft picks after Downs and Gray, so those guys were even better picks than Pilks/Sheets) AND take on more money just to get rid of Shields in his final year of his contract in a rebuild anyway.

That is LUDICROUS. I would bet a sizeable amount of money that they will struggle to even try to make it to .500

I wasn't talking about loaning, I just mean even if Harper/Machado don't sign with us, we could theoretically do this all over again soon if one of them gets an early opt-out and uses it.

I can't stop thinking about how awful of a trade that this was. Without reading through all 11 pages, is there anyone here who is actually defending it from the Reds perspective? I assume the only narrative is that they get a chance to win 69 games next year instead of 67? As if that's somehow going to energize the fanbase?

I was thinking about that actually, but in terms of if Manny or Harper get an opt out after like 3 years, and take it, then hopefully we are a winning team and could make a much stronger case for them then

That's really tough. I would lean Ballage. I always lean towards the RB in that situation over a WR, and a 3rd option WR with a QB who is struggling right now.

This thread isn't meant to be a concession to Harper and Manny, I still think we have a pretty good shot at locking down Manny, but in the event that the Sox miss out on both of them, and maybe even Grandal and Keuchel, the Sox may start the 2019 season with still a TON of money left unused. So, hopefully that leads Hahn down some creative paths to adding players, via a SECONDARY free agent market. Buying big contracts off of other teams. The idea being that the team looking to offload their contracts on to us would have to also throw in some prospects to help facilitate the move (unless you're the Reds, then you GIVE AWAY those prospects for the right absorb other team's salary dumps). Here is a list of players on non-contending teams, that might be available for the Sox to grab, in order of AAV. Consider this list how much you would be "signing" these players for right now. I excluded complete albatross contracts or guys at a position that wouldn't make sense for the Sox. SP Zack Grienke (35) - 3 yrs/$104.5M SP Felix Hernandez (33) - 1 yr/$27.8M RF Jason Heyward (29) - 5 yrs/$118.5M SP Jordan Zimmermann (33) - 2 yrs/$50M OF Jacoby Ellsbury (35) - 2 yrs/$47.3M SP Johnny Cueto (33) - 3 yrs/$68M OF Alex Gordon (35) 1 yr/$24M SP Jeff Samardzija (34) 2 yrs/$39.6M 3B Evan Longoria (33) 4 yrs/$72.5M SP Mike Leake (31) 2 yrs/$36M SP Wei-Yin Chen (34) 2 yrs/$42M 3B Kyle Seager (31) 3 yrs/$60.5M The rest of the list I used is here..... https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/average/ Ok, now FanGraphs has put together an awesome system of determining the dollar amount to attach to each prospect, based on their FV. And they've translated that calculation to their top 131 list. Now this list is as of sometime during the 2018 season, so these values will change since they are making their way through the 2019 updated lists, but this will at least provide some sort of idea. So I am going to work under the idea that $8M equals 1 WAR, so use STEAMER to figure their value. The difference between their contract and their STEAMER projected value will be what the team will have to pay the Sox to cover the gap. Feel free to make your own calculations using this Fangraphs resource..... https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ Just using the list above, I'm going to copy and paste that list below, but add in the potential prospects + cash it may cost the team for the Sox to take on that salary dump. So I'm subtracting the $8M/WAR for what STEAMER says they will produce in 2019, and then cutting that number in half for each year thereafter for regression, with 1 WAR or $8M being the lowest any player will go. Heyward, due to his age, will maintain his STEAMER projections until age 31 season, then he will lose half each year. Grienke, for example, is projected for 3.3 fWAR in 2019. So his 2019 value will be about $27M. Then that will cut to about $13M in 2020, and $8M in 2021. So his projected value for 3 years will be $48M. That means he is a net-negative of about $56M. The Dbacks trade will reflect the $56M difference. SP Zack Grienke (35) - 3 yrs/$104.5M - For SP Jon Duplantier + $30M SP Felix Hernandez (33) - 1 yr/$27.8M - For OF Kyle Lewis + $15M RF Jason Heyward (29) - 5 yrs/$118.5M For C Miguel Amaya, 2B Nico Hoerner + $20M SP Jordan Zimmermann (33) - 2 yrs/$50M For SP Matt Manning + $15M OF Jacoby Ellsbury (35) - 2 yrs/$47.3M For SP Albert Abreu + $15M SP Johnny Cueto (33) - 3 yrs/$68M For CF Heliot Ramos + $25M OF Alex Gordon (35) 1 yr/$24M For RF Kyle Isbel + $10M SP Jeff Samardzija (34) 2 yrs/$39.6M For CF Heliot Ramos + $5M 3B Evan Longoria (33) 4 yrs/$72.5M For CF Heliot Ramos, SS Marco Luciano + $10M SP Mike Leake (31) 2 yrs/$36M For OF Kyle Lewis + $10M SP Wei-Yin Chen (34) 2 yrs/$42M For SP Braxton Garrett + $10M 3B Kyle Seager (31) 3 yrs/$60.5M For OF Kyle Lewis, P Logan Gilbert + $10M With the Mariners it was hard, since they have 0 guys on FG top 131, so I just took Kyle Lewis, their #1 prospect, and assumed his value would be around $5M, instead of $9M for least valuable guy on FG list. And then I also chose not to assume any teams would give up their elite prospects in a salary dump. For the Giants, even though Joey Bart's $30M evaluation would have fit this scenario, I can't imagine the Giants would give him up just to free up a contract. So I went for Heliot Ramos who was valued at $16M instead, and then threw in money. Are any of those deals ones you guys would want the Sox to take? Got any ideas of your own using the links? If Hahn can't spend Jerry's money on FA this winter, I hope he is able to find creative ways like this to buy some prospects with that money.

I really REALLY hope the best guy that falls to us at #3 is not a 1B.

In 2019? Very slim. Over the course of the next 5 years? Certainly possible.

Feel free to use what symantics you want to, but my point still stands. Sox have a bunch of "very good" prospects still on their way. The cavalry is just beginning

Top 50 is usually what I consider a blue chip prospect, but just going off your definition of 60FV+, how many teams even have one of those? Or multiple? No reason to panic.

I think the instant success of players like Acuna, Buehler, Judge, Andujar, Soto, Albies, and others have clouded people's idea of a patience with young players. It's possible Giolito and Moncada never pan out, but it's entirely too early to decide that, especially since we are still waiting on another 5-6 blue chip prospects to come up still.

I would imagine he would be, and almost certainly already has, been selling the Sox but more or less selling the idea of playing together and living near each other in Chicago. You're right, he doesn't know the clubhouse or the staff or the facility yet, but hopefully the idea of the family sticking together helps.

Have a Happy Holidays, rabbit.