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Everything posted by almagest
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https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model I think some of the gloom and doom posters here should read this. We’ve got a problem on our hands for sure but as expected the models for COVID fatalities are being driven down pretty drastically.
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That's not necessarily true. The death rate (and likely the infection rate) isn't a normal distribution, so you can't say "if 10,000 people get it and 200 die that means if 100,000,000 got it 200,000 would die". The current understood death rates should be broken down by age and comorbidities and it's a disservice to everyone to not add those numbers when discussing. Also, numbers like CFR are misleading at this point anyway because we don't know the true number of infected. My guess is we've been dealing with this for longer than everyone knows and we're looking at a real infection rate of 10x? 100x? the known number of infections right now.
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Italy in particular also has a ton of smokers, has the 5th highest median age in the world (45.5 - the US is 38.1) and 48.6% of those who died had 3+ comorbidities
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0.pdf
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7
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If you're curious, this is the mortality rate for 44k confirmed cases in China, broken down into a number of categories.
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Y2Jimmy > National Reports (Moncada extended 5 years)
almagest replied to Look at Ray Ray Run's topic in Pale Hose Talk
I would agree. I also don't know if teams are going to overpay for a catcher with bad framing, mediocre overall performance and a couple bad months last year. Seems prime for regression. -
Y2Jimmy > National Reports (Moncada extended 5 years)
almagest replied to Look at Ray Ray Run's topic in Pale Hose Talk
It could make sense. He has the best year of his career and he's still relegated to backup. I don't know if he's going to start anywhere else except on a bad team, though. -
I heard he was marathon streaming the entire Sega Genesis library on Twitch.
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Heyward was a good signing at the time. He provided 15-20% above league average offense in right field and was one of the best defensive outfielders around. I would've been super excited if the White Sox signed him. If he kept providing 3.5-6 bWAR per year that would be a great deal. That's the risk you take when signing top free agents though. You can slam the Cubs for not considering their future financial flexibility but they were pushing to win a world series and they had enough depth to absorb Heyward being a disappointment. I'm curious how they haven't been able to offload his contract though. He's not old and could rebound with a change of scenery. If they ate some of that deal and didn't accept too much in return that could free up resources for more pitching. I guess no one wants him, though.
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Man Vaughn can hit.
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Mariners @ Sox | 2:05 PM CT | Whitesox.com
almagest replied to Tnetennba's topic in 2020 Season in Review
Gonzalez wins it with a duplicate of his double from earlier! -
Mariners @ Sox | 2:05 PM CT | Whitesox.com
almagest replied to Tnetennba's topic in 2020 Season in Review
Gonzalez double - 2nd and 3rd 1 out -
The end result is the same, though. If Comcast and RCN and Youtube TV and any other services aren't carrying the Marquee network who is going to be able to watch the games?
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It's really funny because the Sox learned this lesson in the 80s with Sportvision, and you'd expect the Cubs wouldn't want to make similar mistakes but nope here they are keeping Cubs games away from all their fans watching Youtube TV and Comcast.
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Giants @ Sox (SS) | 2:05 PM CT | Whitesox.com
almagest replied to Tnetennba's topic in 2020 Season in Review
Giants are definitely getting a little lucky with their hits. Maybe two of their hits so far have been hit hard. -
Sox Payroll Redux. Why did the Spending Stop ?
almagest replied to CaliSoxFanViaSWside's topic in Pale Hose Talk
They've already spent a TON of money. There isn't much else out there that's a non-controversial upgrade right now. I'm fine with them waiting until the ASB or next offseason to augment. There are still a lot of unknowns on this team right now. -
Hopefully "maxed out" means "for this offseason".
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I don't think I would spend time building a "speech to code" interpreter, unless the problem was constrained to very specific languages so the parser would know that you were intending to call a specific language feature. You would also need a way to store local keywords so class, function and variable names would be properly referenced. I would still rather work on alternate input methods, like Microsoft's adaptive controller: https://www.xbox.com/en-US/xbox-one/accessories/controllers/xbox-adaptive-controller Also after reading some of this thread it's clear you're the largest obstacle to your own success @Jack Parkman. Hopefully the perspective of the people in this thread helps you work past that, but given the litany of excuses and blame-shifting I've seen I doubt it. Best of luck with your job search.
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He's at The Athletic now
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Probably. I really don't see it being successful otherwise unless they figure out a way to pull players from the NFL and that's not happening.
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Wonderful 101 is also on Kickstarter and is coming to other systems. I don't know if Nintendo was referring to it - might be another option in there.
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I assume it's going to be treated as a minor league. Talent drain could really hurt them unless players know they have a shot at the NFL from the XFL, then that might help if they don't want to sit on a practice squad for a year or play Arena football/in the CFL. I think the XFL is going to need to get really creative with recruiting some under the radar players from small schools or develop a reputation as a great place to learn how to transition to the NFL, otherwise they'll just fail in a year or two again.
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If this team could even get in the same neighborhood as the Rays when it comes to scouting and player development I would be so happy. I would love to never have to see a sustained rebuild again.
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I don't get this board's obsession with veteran players that aren't good.