almagest

Me too. Seems most relevant right now.

Oof

?

If you're basing this on his age 21 and 22 seasons with absolutely no future projection of improvement and not including Kopech or Basabe then yes that is correct.

He's been a league average hitter so far and he's only 23.

??

What was Kaplan's rumor?

Not Shack's fault dude. He can only tell us what he's heard. Place the blame on the organization where it belongs.

If we're absolutely not going to sign Harper and we can get some good prospects or even solid players (like Joc Pederson, though I'd want to see about an extension for him) off their roster I'm fine with this. I'm still pissed off at the team but at least this is something.

I don't think this is the case, but it COULD be that the Sox said something like "Hey you don't like Dan Lozano, we now don't like him, we both want to one-up him now so keep our involvement quiet here and we'll match or exceed any offer up to $X dollars". I don't think the Sox are doing this (I think they're out honestly), but I am a spiteful, petty, vengeance-driven man, so this is what I would do.

Maybe, but if you get something really good in return for them it lessens that blow. The Sox could always find a 2-3 WAR outfielder in free agency or from someone else in their system (assuming they have any depth which they probably won't).

Sure, but you bet on his track record. That's why you pay him. Projecting Harper to be bad before age-based regression is catastrophizing.

Also if they trade any OF prospects the idea is that you get something of value in return, probably pitching given the injuries we've seen lately.

If the Sox are bad enough that Harper wants to leave in 3 years then it doesn't matter if he opts out.

If your only other option is the shithole that is Philly you'll be more open to playing on the southside but still living in a world-class city.

If the Dodgers get involved and get him its gonna be an offseason of "you stupid fuckers waited too god damn long!" for the White Sox and Phillies.

FIP should help control for that. I agree it sucks making pitchers labor more with bad outfield play but at this point I'm more worried about finding actual good pitching instead of losing half a run to ERA from a bad RF.

They have to see what they have with their current players. Don't sign anyone who could block Palka/Delmonico/Cordell/Engel/whoever. It's likely none of those players amount to much but on the off-chance one does you would never see it signing a mediocre veteran who likely won't be much better. They need to lose now and lose until their minor leaguers start to produce. Once that happens you can look at filling holes with short-term acquisitions.

If the Sox don't pull a miracle here I hope the Padres swoop in again. Maybe that will help teams understand they need to move quickly next time.

Boy wouldn't it be nice to hear that from the White Sox?

I'm surprised this has been so quiet since Machado signed. Seemed like we'd see this get done quickly, and there hasn't really been anything other than "Sox are out, Phillies still in". Either Harper doesn't want to go to Philadelphia or no one is close to a reasonable offer yet.

I'm just not excited about any free agents after this year. Maybe Trout but that's not happening. This is a unique opportunity to help build a team with a sustained chance of success for many years, and any other free agent after this will be hole patching and not contributing to any chance of success beyond a small 2-3 year window.

Cherry picking reasons isn't going to look like anything but sour grapes at any point. We don't need to cherry pick to show why losing out on Machado is a disaster. Machado has played in basically every game for the last four years. His knee problems were almost five years ago now. Yeah its a potential flag but there's nothing we know of that would indicate any team was worried about his knees.

It's not "too heady". People understand the post. It's just wrong. First, other more illustrative numbers aside, Harper has struck out ~21% of the time in his career. Dunn ~29%. That's a huge difference. Next, the impact of a top-tier free agent in the prime of their career isn't JUST their performance. It's also allowing the White Sox to have some positional certainty and place less pressure on multiple prospects hitting at the same time. It also allows them to trade prospects now blocked by Harper or Machado for other pieces they need. Yeah, they could get hurt and cost 30+ million for nothing, but any Sox player could get hurt and be just as (if not more) damaging. You can't base a franchise-impacting personnel decision on "Well Machado could get hit by a bus tomorrow so let's not sign him". That's stupid.

I think the board insiders are presenting the information they know from people in the Sox organization. It's apparent to all of us that the team vastly underestimated the market for Machado and lost BADLY in this negotiation. I don't blame the board insiders for that, I blame the team. I also don't blame insiders for saying "hey we're still in for Harper" if that's what they hear. I'm sure we are. I'm almost positive they can't convert, though, because of how badly they blew the negotiation with Machado. As for the speculation the Sox would sign both - it's apparent they had unrealistic numbers to achieve this, if it's true. I honestly doubt it is, mainly because they would've been better off securing Machado for 10/300+ and bowing out on Harper instead of bowing out on Machado and almost starting over with Harper. You were close on Machado. You're not close on Harper (presumably). It just doesn't line up that they wanted both. Man, I would love to be proven wrong.