almagest

As soon as Leury started sucking the whole team dropped off the face of the planet. I think we have our smoking gun...

Yes, of course there are, which is why people aren't suggesting we go for a Chris Sale level package, which was WAY higher than the proposals we're asking about here.

Then there's nothing for you to talk about with us, because we're not trading two years of a cheap starter who's floor is a mid-rotation starter and ceiling is a Cy Young finalist for your lower tier prospects. The future value proposition just isn't worth it, because prospects have a ton of risk and this trade is too important to this team to fail.

To be fair, I'd say TA, Elvis and Grandal all lived up to their rankings, and Robert sure seems on track to be there too. Guys like Benintendi, Eloy and Moncada are in theory decent outcomes, even for top 3 prospects, and 100% Orioles fans will be PISSED if Holliday, Kjerstad, Cowser, Mayo and/or Basallo end up in this tier.

First, I don't think billionaires should pay any more taxes than they already do. Second, this is a bad analogy, because taxable wealth is REAL. Those dollars exist, right now. Prospect future value is THEORETICAL. You could trade Jackson Holliday and he could turn out to be a giant bust or just be decent, and don't say it won't happen because we have a team FULL of these guys. We're also not saying you're trading for peak Chris Sale here, but we're DEFINITELY saying the price is going to be higher than you seem to want to pay, especially when you're saying 4 of your top 5 prospects on mlb.com are off limits, and the main one you're hanging onto has 1B concerns in his scouting report.

The Orioles should sign him

I mean this is the whole point of what people here are trying to tell you. You're not headlining a deal for Cease with your third or lower tier of prospects (Assuming Holliday is tier 1 and Mayo is in tier 2 in this case). There needs to be a top tier talent in the package or it's not worth it for the Sox, because they can get that package or better elsewhere. We know how easy it is for these guys to bust out, and we know how important it is to load your team up with proven talent to be able to compete. You know Cease has a mid-rotation floor, and a top 5 Cy Young finisher ceiling. Every single one of your prospects can bust, or end up being just okay - we just lived through this. You also know that (in theory) the O's have a deep system with good player development, so you can absorb losing someone that hurts because you've got a pipeline to replace them, which the White Sox never had. If you trade Mayo (assuming he's as good as you think he is, which doesn't seem to be the consensus here) or someone in his tier, you'll still have an offense full of mashers and you'll drastically upgrade your pitching staff for a postseason run for two years, and put way less reliance on everything going exactly the way you need it to with young pitching. If you hang onto him, then the White Sox probably go elsewhere to make a trade, or they just hang onto him and see what happens at the deadline. It's not like it affects our draft position, because we're picking no better than 10th no matter what we do. Yeah it probably lessens the available talent available for Cease, but if the Sox aren't getting what they want and need now it doesn't really matter that much, because there's zero guarantee any of these guys are successful, and we might just be better off taking a high end talent and a flyer at the deadline or in the winter of 2024. And if you come back with "fine we won't get him the price is too high", then I hope you don't seriously regret it, like White Sox fans regret not signing Harper or Machado.

They could, but that 3rd overall pick is a lot more valuable than an 8th or whatever, so even if New England trades up they don't have to send the same future picks.

I think it will by Bears fans, yes absolutely. I really Poles doesn't fall into this trap, good performance or bad.

Was wondering when we'd get the apology tour from Bauer. I think he finds a one year prove it deal somewhere.

It shouldn't. Fields' passing body of work is mediocre and one game isn't going to change that. Vastly over indexing on the Packers game is the kind of meatball homerism I'd hope the Bears are moving away from.

Same. You'd consider it at least if someone offers you a lopsided package but like I said I don't think that happens, and I just do not trust Fields to be more than a bottom half QB.

Looks like they can in 2025 for a $22 million cap hit. I'd assume they'd not draft a QB at the top of the draft and have him sit for a year behind Jones, though. If anything I'd bet on them trading back and drafting more of a project because they basically have to pay/play Jones.

No, I just think it's unrealistic and ignoring how trading up has worked in the past in the NFL to hope that a top 5-8 team is gonna give you a king's ransom with multiple first rounders to trade up.

New England doesn't have to include as much value as a team that picks lower (assuming they stay at 3) because that pick is more valuable than first rounders a year or two away.

The Giants just signed Daniel Jones to a huge contract. They're not cutting bait now, with 3 years left. The Raiders pick 11th right now and they're WAY more likely to offer a package like you mentioned. They fit right into the range of spots to jump where I'd expect a lot of value. The Patriots could still beat that value without including the third first rounder, though, because the 3rd pick now is worth way more than the 11th pick now + the ?? pick in 2 years.

Right. This could all change after the combine of course, but right now it's Williams & Maye, then Daniels right behind, then a mix of Nix/Penix/McCarthy in the later first or early second.

Why in the world would New England do that to move up 2 spots when the Bears likely aren't taking a QB in this scenario? They'd still have their choice of one of Maye/Williams/Daniels at 3 and wouldn't lose 2 first round picks. This is so ridiculously lopsided in favor of the Bears that it's completely unrealistic.

Maybe, but if someone is offering 3 overall firsts or 2 + additional players to move up 3 spots I'd be extremely wary of that offer.

Of course it matters. There's no reason to pay for the #1 pick if the Bears aren't taking a QB if you're #2 or #3, and depending on where teams who won't draft a QB are in the draft order, you completely change the potential number of teams interested in moving up to #1. This is why people are paying so much attention to draft order this year. You also have Jayden Daniels in that 1-B tier, and teams may be fine taking him instead of trading away a ton of draft capital.

I don't think Moore was worth a first round pick last year, given his down year in 2022. After this year he definitely would be. The 49ers and Rams are the exact cases I'm talking about - those are trades for +9 and +14 spots. The 49ers were also DESPERATE for a QB because they had a good team and couldn't find a competent QB. Lance was a huge bust and they'd still be in trouble if they didn't find Purdy. That article is a more compelling source, but it seems to be more about the price the Bears would need to trade the pick based on the quality of the QBs available, not that anyone would meet it. And if someone in the top 5 offered that I would be genuinely concerned about how good Williams/Maye are to offer such a huge package to move up a couple spots to draft them. You'd also be banking on that team being terrible again and not being like the Texans this year, which seems less likely given the quality of the top 2 QBs. Drafting in the top 5 again is much more valuable than drafting in the back half.

I really, really doubt it. Cardinals are #4 right now and they might not take a QB. Also, teams will know the Bears aren't drafting a QB at #1, so #2 and #3 become where you need to be. If any teams not taking QBs end up there you'll see trades to those slots.

You'd have to trade down pretty far is my point. It's not coming from trading down 3 spots. You'd likely be in the 10-15 range.

A good QB is so important and getting the best guy (Williams or Maye) in a pretty good draft year for QBs is a no-brainer to me. Fields has barely improved as a passer this year and that's with a top 10 WR, a good TE and a better o-line. He's consistently in the 20s for every major QB stat and that's not good enough, especially given how much time he misses due to injuries and that the Bears need to pick up his 5th year option before next season starts. I also think people are dreaming of a big trade down haul that just isn't happening. These trades just don't happen very often, for one, and in a QB class last year without many options beyond the top 2 you got one first round pick and DJ Moore (likely valued as a 2nd with maybe a later round pick attached) by trading down nine spots. I think the hauls most people expect would come from trading to 10+, where I don't think the Bears want to be - the best QBs and WRs will be well off the board by then, and you just don't get the same level of impact from the guys in that part of the draft.

Yeah, I was just going off who was listed as a RF. Gallo just can’t hit and I don’t think there’s any upside left. He is what he is. Grichuk and Duvall at least hit a little.