almagest

Long time lurker, first time poster. Anyway, I'd like to compare last season, and career numbers for two players - Jack Egbert, and Gio Gonzalez: Egbert 2007 W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP BK H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP GB% 12 8 3.06 28 28 0 0 0 0 161.2 138 63 55 3 44 165 6 0 7.68 0.17 2.45 9.19 1.13 -- Egbert Career (4 MiLB seasons) W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP BK H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP GB% 35 24 2.93 104 90 4 3 0 -- 529.0 461 215 172 12 179 468 23 -- 7.84 0.20 3.05 7.96 1.21 -- Gio 2007 W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP BK H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP GB% 9 7 3.18 27 27 0 0 0 0 150.0 116 57 53 10 57 185 5 2 6.96 0.60 3.42 11.10 1.15 -- Gio Career (4 MiLB seasons) W L ERA G GS CG SH GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP BK H9 HR9 BB9 K9 WHIP GB% 31 28 3.49 91 89 0 0 -- 0 492.1 400 215 191 43 206 577 23 -- 7.32 0.79 3.77 10.55 1.23 -- Egbert is two years older, but the stats are pretty close, with an edge to Egbert (IMO) due to the extra innings thrown, starts made, lower HR/9, BB/9, WHIP, and ERA. I guess the point of this comparison is to ask why so many people seem to think Gio was such a "can't miss" prospect with a ceiling of a #3 or #2 starter, when Egbert has anywhere from a slightly worse (considering the difference two years can make development-wise, though considering they both have four years experience, I'm not sure this is the case) to slightly better career line, but is considered a 4th or 5th starter at best. I think we as fans need to stop over-hyping our prospects, and realize we got a guy who can play all outfield positions as well as first base, and easily put up an 850-900 OPS for five years without breaking the bank like we would have for Hunter or Rowand. People also seem to forget we would have lost draft picks in signing either of those players as well, and that Swisher is a much safer bet to produce over the long-term than either Hunter or Rowand. And really, all we lost was a solid pitching prospect with some durability issues (Gio), an A ball pitcher who seems to project best as a short reliever (DLS), and a guy who couldn't hit over .280 in AAA, nor hit more than 13 home runs in a bandbox stadium (Sweeney). For a player with the ability and contract status of Swisher, I'd make that trade anyday.