almagest
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Posts posted by almagest
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Definitely a different Astros org than we're used to. Pressly was a solid closer for them but now moves into a high leverage role, or occasional closer if tough righties are due up.
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On 1/18/2024 at 2:36 PM, Texsox said:
As an out of town Sox fan I love the idea that they would have a nice new stadium without expense. It's great for the team. I pay very little Illinois tax.
Same. Build the most extravagant and awesome stadium possible so my yearly visits in the summer have something to really enjoy.
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Man, watching this national championship game and so far Penix looks pretty bad. Had Odunze wide open and blew the throw.
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20 minutes ago, The Beast said:
My comment to that user on Twitter. If Williams or Maye are drafted, are they getting a year under their belt first or are they expected to put up Mahomes like numbers in the first year?
They’re getting a year most likely, but it’ll be hard for them to not beat Fields’s numbers unless they’re straight bust territory.
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That went pretty much how I said it would. Packers did what they did at the beginning of the year - take away the runs and make Fields beat them through the air. Get pressure on him. And the result was 9 points, 0 TDs.
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2 hours ago, fathom said:
I just don’t want the coach or QB to return
I don't think Fields is it either and a good QB is so hard to find that not taking shots at 1-1 two years in a row is hard to justify. I'm ambivalent about Flus but if there's a chance out there to take a solid upgrade they should do it just based on the 3 historic level losses when leading late.
I don't think this game has much bearing on the outcome for Fields unless he absolutely lights it up. Then it might help him. If the Bears win that might help Eberflus though.
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14 minutes ago, fathom said:
I want them to get blown out and Fields play poorly
I don't want that at all, I just think Fields can't read a zone well so he's gonna struggle. Love has been good lately so it's gonna be a defensive test. If the Bears win it'll likely be due to the defense forcing turnovers again.
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I don’t think anyone is arguing that a Cowser/Ortiz headliner, with another piece or two for lotto tickets, is a bad deal. I’m not big on Ortiz for the reasons I’ve already mentioned so I’d prefer a different player, but the headliner is definitely solid. It sounds like that’s not even on the table though, based on the leaked ask from the Sox and what @Harold's Leg Lift had said about the Orioles not being serious. If the O’s are trying to headline with someone like Ortiz or Norby then it’s not even worth discussing.
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16 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:
Don’t they have Acuna’s brother now?
Yeah. Luisangel. He's their top prospect.
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1 minute ago, Quin said:
Talking about Mets prospects for like, two pages, was fun
Hey if we had some Mets fans in here talking about how they won't trade anyone for Cease I'd go look at their prospects too
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2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:
I think some might, but I think the greater injury risk with pitchers would cause most to go with the similarly talented positional guys.
I think we're all just tired of having a roster full of first basemen, so anyone with "1B" risk in their profile is anathema.
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7 minutes ago, WhiteSox2023 said:
A 20 year old, 6’9” top lefty starting pitching prospect with Randy Johnson comps versus an over-the-hill age 25.5 infield “prospect” who still has yet to prove himself in the majors.
Frobby, if Ortiz was only 22 years old right now, do you think he would have more value? I think he would have a lot more value, assuming he was putting up the same numbers as he has recently.
All the O's fans here would say he's completely off limits 😆
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3 minutes ago, Frobby said:
I’m not that familiar with Schultz. Why do you say that? I see Fangraphs in its midseason updates graded Schultz as a 45, while Ortiz was a 50. MLB has Ortiz higher. So what makes you so sure no team would prefer Ortiz?
Schultz is a potential top of the rotation left handed starter. Here's Baseball America's writeup, which has him #31:
QuoteBA Grade/Risk: 60/Very High.
Track Record: The White Sox stayed close to home when they drafted Schultz 26th overall in 2022, signing the towering Chicago-area high school product for full slot value of $2.8 million. While his time on the mound has been limited to 27 innings since signing, Schultz has flashed tantalizing, mostly unhittable stuff. His 2023 pro debut was delayed until June 2 by a flexor strain. It wasn’t until his seventh start a month and a half later that he finally gave up a run, the only game among his 10 starts in which he yielded an earned run. He spent the entire season at Low-A Kannapolis, striking out 38 batters while walking just six.
Scouting Report: Schultz’s devastating mid-90s fastball touches the high 90s. It is difficult for hitters to square up because of the extreme deception provided by his low three-quarters arm slot and the way he hides the ball. It explodes on hitters with run and sink to generate whiffs up in the zone. Schultz’s fastball has double-plus potential, as does his wipeout slider that averages 79-80 mph with late, hard movement and a high spin rate. He doesn’t use his changeup much, but it’s a potentially above-average pitch in the mid 80s with late movement and down action. He uses it to keep righthanded hitters from sitting on his slider. Using a modified windup, Schultz starts from what looks like a stretch position before going into a small side-rocker step, which helps keep his long levers in sync. He coordinates his tall frame and long levers well, throwing a lot of strikes and profiling as a starter.
The Future: Schultz has the components of a top-of-the rotation starter. He will continue to move through the system slowly, with his pitch counts being carefully controlled. He’ll likely head to High-A Winston-Salem as a 20-year-old to start the 2024 season.
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 60-
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17 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:
27 ….boy your pulling it out of your A$$
Talk about a double standard…. Ortiz is better than any prospect in your system but Montgomery…..But he’s 26 (really 25) , But hes a glove first player, But he’s not a headliner, but your players would slot #9 or higher even though they should be rated with players with a similar grade., See what I just did ?
You seem to be struggling with this. Let me try again - Ortiz is much less valuable to a team like the White Sox than he is to the Orioles or a team in their competitive window that's missing a SS because:
- He is turning 26 midway through next season and his MLB clock started. By the time the White Sox are getting competitive again he'll be like 29 and in his arb years.
- To add to that, the White Sox top prospect (who is ranked much higher than Ortiz) is a 22 year old SS, and he is likely coming up midway through this year. This means Ortiz shifts to 2B or 3B.
- 3B is currently blocked by Yoan Moncada and his giant salary. The White Sox are for sure playing him at 3B this year, hopefully recouping some trade value if he plays well. Ortiz shifts to 2B then, where he is far less valuable.
- Ortiz has a lower offensive ceiling and very real risk he will not hit in the majors, even given his recent offensive improvements. He is an excellent defender at a premium position, but that defense (and offensive profile) does not play nearly as well at 3B or 2B.
He is not a headliner the White Sox should accept. He definitely has value as a second piece but the Orioles would probably be better off keeping him or trading him to someone who needs a SS in this case.
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2 minutes ago, SoCalChiSox said:
Bradfield >>>>>>>>>> Gonzalez.
I'm not even going to defend the selection we made now that it turns out the 55 hit tool we thought we were getting is really a 20.
I think it's still way too early to say that, even though the results were way less than encouraging. We'll see what Gonzalez looks like in 2024.
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5 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:
I’ve told you guys I’d rank Ortiz much closer to the back end of the top 100 because of his age and lack of ceiling. Many of your brethren were very angry with me for suggesting that, but I simply don’t think he holds the value that other prospects in the 50’s do, at least not to a team like us that need potential difference makers.
I think he holds that value to a team who is closer to contention but has a need at SS. The Dodgers maybe? I know prospect for prospect trades aren't that common, but maybe someone like River Ryan + a guy outside their top 30 to get some immediate pitching help without trading away any other prospects.
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17 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:
They just adjusted this list this fall. Bradfield hit .290, .800 OPS and is a CF. They were 2 slots apart. At this point it’s safe to say the value is comparable.
“We’re” ? I’m not missing anything. Your interests have no more impact on Getz than mine with Elias. That’s a number between 0 and 0.
Here we go with the "but but but we're not MLB GM's!" nonsense again. You are contributing nothing by saying this. You are just being annoying.
That said, I can absolutely tell you that Ortiz would be blocking our top prospect's position and his value at 3B or 2B is not nearly as high as at SS. We also still need to pay/play Moncada, and then Ortiz is 27 when Moncada is gone. This isn't debating prospect positioning, this is clearly evident roster construction. Some other team would likely value him higher.
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1 minute ago, Rolle Tide said:
But, per MLB Ortiz would clearly be #2. Bradfield and Gonzalez were both 2023 1st rounders within a few picks of one another. So what pedigree….. I can’t wait to hear. You can build up your prospects…. I suppose we all do.
As of these 2023 rankings, sure. He likely wouldn't be once the 2024 lists come out.
Gonzalez was drafted 15th, so yes he would probably be ranked higher still, unless Bradfield torched the minors after being drafted.
You're also missing that we're not that interested in a guy who doesn't fit nearly as well here as other options due to age and position.
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Man after reading about Basallo it sounds like he has a ton of potential but he's only 19 and he's got the dreaded "as his body fills out he might find himself at first base" attached to him. Still pretty incredible to be in the top 50 at 19 but man I would be super nervous about that profile as a headliner. He's got a TON of risk.
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5 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:
Noted …. BTW, Ortiz is 25 so it’s interesting that we’re rounding up to try to lessen the value.
He'll be 26 midway through the 2024 season
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Just now, Rolle Tide said:
LOL ….. you’re funny. Ortiz would be 2,3, or 4 as your 2 and 3 are also graded 55. Norby, Bradfield, and Beavers all grad 50 as do Gonzalez, Eder, and Nastrini (#4-#6). Everyone else in your system is graded 45 or lower. So obviously they could fall in anywhere from 4 to 7 as Ramos is the next tier.
I said 3-5 for Ortiz so I don't know what's so funny. We're right in the same range. Schultz is a FV 55 because he's younger and has more risk, but the upside is incredibly high. He's likely higher on the 2024 list than Ortiz - he's 31 on Baseball America's 2023 list. Gonzalez is a 2023 first round pick so he's probably ranked higher than Norby, Bradfield and Beavers by pedigree. Most Sox fans are bearish on him, though, as he really struggled at the plate. Those three you mentioned could slot in that 4-7 range, but everyone else that's been mentioned would not.
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2 minutes ago, Rolle Tide said:
The problem is ….. You guys talked about the Yankees earlier in this thread. They don’t have a Top 50 prospect in their system. They have 73-75 and 95 ….. but in your eyes the #50 prospect is a nonstarter? I guess the Yankees are out then?
I haven't looked too deeply at their prospects so I can't say how I'd feel about them, but a 26 year old SS with hitting concerns whose clock has already started is just not a compelling primary piece for this org, and might also be beaten as a secondary piece, even from an org with prospects below him, because we have Montgomery poised to take over at SS this or next year. Blocking Ortiz or shifting him over to 3B where his hitting concerns would be even more apparent seems like a waste of Cease's value. We could also try Ortiz at 2B but that's a less premium defensive position and I don't know if it's worth wasting his glove there.
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3 minutes ago, Balta1701 said:
A HUGE difference with Quintana though...when traded, Quintana was under contract and controlled for 3.5 years. That's Luis Robert's control level (as of this year's trade deadline).
Which is why most of the Sox fan proposals here are looking at prospects ranked lower than Eloy's #12 as the headliner. Orioles have #14, #24, #27 & #46 on MLB's 2023 list.
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Just now, Southwest Sider said:
Let's not forget Jose Quintana, a durable reliable solid pitcher, not unlike Dylan Cease returned 2 of the Cubs best prospects in Jimenez (who I guess has kinda busted but was a HUGE prospect) and Dylan Cease himself.
BAL needs to GTFO with their prospect hugging untouchable nonsense. No one is untouchable if you actually want the guy.
Quintana was also in the midst of a pretty rough season when he was traded, and that was worth #12 and #77 on MLB's list.
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Cease To Padres per Passan
in Pale Hose Talk
Posted
Just wait until half or 2/3rds of their prospects bust or end up minor contributors.