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So how much do they have to pay for their tickets?

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 15, 2008 -> 04:20 PM) 1. You keep hitting on Obama's rebate check thing. I don't agree with that either, but you are throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Much of the rest of his plan is far better than what McCain has to offer. 2. I said nothing about futures markets (which by the way, I have worked in or around for the past 10 years). And frankly, this problem is way, way, way beyond what the futures market may do to oil prices, since they aren't going to plummet in any case because they can't. 3. What mathematical formulae are you referring to? I used no such things. 4. Why on earth would it not be Bush's job to help secure the future? In fact, if you look at history, its the last year in which Presidents (having lost political capital) usually try to stretch out and try to leave their mark in some useful way. 5. There are certain realities involved in offshore drilling and ANWR, that will limit the amount of oil that can be added to the system. That's why they won't have a significant effect on the price. 6. Finally, if you are experienced in the futures markets, I'd like to hear your theory on what the main factors on oil prices are. Because as far as I can see, they are fundamentals (supply and demand), geo-regional conflict and risk, and the weak dollar. There are other factors too, but they are all minor. Are you suggesting that the dollar will suddenly gain a whole ton of new strength? Or that oil producing regions will suddenly calm down? Or that the increase in oil from offshore and ANWR is so much as to significantly change the foreign/domestic balance of our oil? 1. OK. I have to admit I'm losing interest after you agreeing with me here. 2. Spot markets/futures markets, it doesn't really matter which one you are looking at. A market is a market, and you can't predict how a market is going to interpret news with a mathematic formula, which I assumed you used. 3. You posted that if congress ended the bans on drilling offshore it will only cause a move of ____ cents. I assumed that since you arrived at some proposed amount, and most importantly, stated it as a fact, that you used some kind of mathematical formula to arrive at that number. What did you or the person who wrote it use then? If its just some market analyst's opinion, an exact number like that is worth less than 2 cents to me. If you are so market savvy, why cite a stat like that? 4. I don't really care about bush (repeating myself). I guess its his job but he has zero political capital. He couldn't get anything done if he tried. Also, he doesn't want to risk harm to McCain's campaign. As to your final two points, I see the market as already extremely overbought, as markets often get, and see news like congress lifting the ban as a catalyst that can bring us back to normality. I've come to believe fundamentals, in general, are mainly useful at explaining why things happened a day after they did. If I'm making a prediction like I did, I'll look at the market data for my answer and delve in the fundamentals afterward. Its had a nice move for me the last few days anyhow, tyvm.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 15, 2008 -> 07:25 AM) There are so many things wrong with your assumptions here, I don't know wher to begin. First, the "real effect on the price of oil" from new offshore drilling will take years to be in effect. Oil rigs don't spring up overnight. They take a long time to build and implement. Second, per articles cited here previously by (I think) Balta, that small amount of space that some states MIGHT use for drilling is not going to yield much oil. Less than ANWR, and ANWR is seen as having a few cents' effect on the price of gas, at best, at peak. So this is really no solution at all. Third, ANYTHING you do in the way of developing new energy - oil, gas, oil sands, wind, solar, geo, hydro, algae, plant-based ethanols, etc., will take time to develop. All of them. So why on earth would you rely so heavily on a tiny little boost, for something that later on will make us WORSE off for the dependence on it? Do something long term - a real solution, not a political showpiece like this. Invest in a lot of different alt energy solutions, many of which are already out there and near maturity, just waiting for the last push. Heck, in terms of wind and solar, those technologies would actually be much faster to implement than new oil anyway, because they are already ready. First of all, I didn't make any assumptions. I just posted what I believe will happen, based on the current oil market and my experiences in futures markets. No one can say they know for sure what will happen or how the market will interpret news, so I don't know what you are basing all of your information on, if anything, other than supply and demand, which is only part of the reason oil is currently so high in price. Mathematical predictions don't work on futures markets, period. Unfortunately that seems to be the basis for most of what you say. Experts can write as many articles as they want, I could find just as many people, perhaps more, that support an opposite position on ANWR and the price of oil. So where does that leave us? Something long term must be done, no doubt, but that really isn't Bush's job at this point in his presidential career. You make an obvious point, and one that is irrelevant to what I have said. My position is that obama's plan sucks, long term and short. Especially short. Obama will actually help drive the price of oil higher if people use their energy checks for energy. That is completely retarded. Long term the plan is just plain lackluster to me and I have no faith that the dollars he proposes to be used for development of alternative energy will end up anywhere but in the hands of some bureaucratic bulls*** organization(s).

No doubt he has been terrible in the past. The fact remains, he took action today by lifting one ban on offshore drilling and urging congress to do the same. That will have a real effect on the price of oil, right now, should congress follow suit. If obama were implementing his plan at this moment, I could not say the same thing. I'd be sitting around waiting for a check for 5 months watching the problem get worse.

Bleh, I can't watch this. Berman. I'll take Longoria.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 14, 2008 -> 08:42 AM) His plan has some holes, but its a far sight better than anything that McCain or Bush have offered. Although with McCain, he's sort of changed his mind a few times on it, so its hard to say what his plan really is. I respectfully, completely disagree. Throwing money at the problem, blaming speculators, and investing some moneys in future development is not a comprehensive energy plan. Bush, a terrible president, at least took some real action.

Not sure which game(s) in detroit at the start of the year but CQ hit a bomb and pegged someone out who was lazy getting back to 1st after a pop out. The man crush had already begun but it was a major moment of reassurance.

Dumpster looked like such an idiot hitting the water cooler. I feel like I could kick the s*** out of him with my right arm tied behind my back after watching that.

Get with the freakin times. Thome is on fire.

QUOTE (whitesoxfan101 @ Jul 14, 2008 -> 01:39 AM) I am talking about 2008 and 2008 only with this post. And with as beat up and in and out of the lineup in the minors as Josh has been, I wonder how well he'd do if we needed to call him up in the case of a Crede injury. Well if crede keeps sucking and they decide its due to injury I expect to see josh. I expect josh to play well within another few weeks at the most.

Not that much when we have josh fields. Don't try to argue this years stats with me. Josh has been beat up. He will be fine with a little time. I think we have enough.

Any news on AJ's ankle?

Two years from now Carlos Quentin will be on my list. I can't put him over joe jackson, maggs/dye or carlos lee just yet.

NICE. I want bobby back.

Carlos = Batman.

There's that salty cannon again, eh dj?

QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 12, 2008 -> 07:58 PM) Toby seems to be doing an awful job of framing pitches. Why do you not throw the slider on 1-2? I might agree, but he has not had a consistent plate. Home field advantages shouldn't be given by the umps.

lol, I got lost.

This ump sucks my testicles.

I would bunt at crede all day. Seems like the slow rollers is what he has trouble with.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 12, 2008 -> 08:45 PM) Danks should have been gone after the double. Why have him throw pitches in a gmae with a 6 run lead (especially when most of the 2nd half Danks is gonna be in a new position when it comes to workload). Maybe he wants it, bad.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jul 12, 2008 -> 08:42 PM) I didn't see much on Masset. I think there was another thread cause I remember commenting a lot on Masset and all I saw was 1 post from me in the entire thread (which is rare for a 60 page thread). Yeah, not much. However, there was a lot of hate on floyd for a thread about danks.

PAULIE.

Hell yes. Do you even have that sig anymore, fathom?

Nice play by paulie.