chw42

For those of you who thought A.J.'s defense sucked (myself included), Plus/Minus does not agree. According to the new FanGraphs WAR values that include catchers stolen base runs saved, A.J. was a +1 last season, although he was a -2 in 08. Overall, he's pretty average/slightly below average. I'm not completely sure how they calculate these things, but it appears that it's not A.J.'s fault that his SB% against is so bad.

QUOTE (Ranger @ Apr 21, 2010 -> 11:49 AM) I'm not sure what this proves except that the last time Jones was significantly better at hitting righties was 7 years ago. to me, this isn't useful information for Ozzie. It proves that it doesn't matter which type of pitcher he faces, he's usually around the same. So if you start him against lefties, you might as well start him against righties as well.

After listening to that radio segment, I actually think Cowley had a decent argument.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Apr 21, 2010 -> 01:10 AM) Where does Ozzie get in his head that Jones can't hit right-handed pitching??? 2009: LHP: 119 AB, .218 AVG, 4 HR (29.7 AB) RHP: 162 AB, .210 AVG, 13 HR (12.4 AB) 2008: LHP: 73 AB, .178 AVG, 2 HR (36.5 AB) RHP: 136 AB,.137 AVG, 1 HR (136 AB) 2007: LHP: 182 AB, .225 AVG, 10 HR (18.2 AB) RPH: 390 AB,.221 AVG, 16 HR (24.3 AB) 2006: LHP: 127 AB, .260 AVG, 10 HR (12.7 AB) RHP: 428 AB, .261 AVG, 31 HR (13.8 AB) 2005: LHP: 125 AB, .256 AVG, 9 HR (13.8 AB) RHP: 461 AB, .265 AVG, 42 HR (10.9 AB) 2004: LHP: 151 AB, .265 AVG, 7 HR (21.6 AB) RHP: 419 AB, .260 AVG, 22 HR (19 AB) 2003: LHP: 131 AB, .260 AVG, 11 HR (11.9 AB) RHP: 464 AB, .282 AVG, 25 HR (18.5 AB) 2002: LHP: 79 AB, .229 AVG, 2 HR (40 AB) RHP: 481 AB, .270 AVG, 33 HR (14.5 AB) Clearly he has been pretty consistent from LHP to RHP, or at least has never shown a reason to say "Wow, this guy can't hit righties". He has maintained similar averages while keeping the power up. So why is Ozzie so stuck on Andruw never seeing a RHP? I've been saying this all along. Does Ozzie just ignore this stuff because he feels like it?

QUOTE (Chet Kincaid @ Apr 20, 2010 -> 04:20 PM) Why not? Because Rogers Centre was empty the other day? So were a lot of other stadiums. I actually like the Blue Jays much better than anyone else in the AL East. And I really like Cito Gaston. I wanted him to manage the Sox when Manuel got fired... He was actually the front runner before Ozwald came along, wasn't he? The more I hear from cowley, the less I want to. I kinda wish he'd just go away. It was empty for a whole 3 days and then some more.

QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Apr 20, 2010 -> 04:07 PM) The Score 670 says they'll be playing the audio soon Supposedly it gets very testy. It's about whether or not Toronto should have baseball. They shouldn't, I actually agree with Cowley.

I don't get this game on TV, that might be a good thing. I don't want to watch David Price kick our ass.

QUOTE (JDsDirtySox @ Apr 20, 2010 -> 01:58 PM) It is Edison Volquez of the Reds That's pretty surprising...

QUOTE (JDsDirtySox @ Apr 20, 2010 -> 01:14 PM) I am going to say it is Vicente Padilla. +1.

QUOTE (Cali @ Apr 20, 2010 -> 01:00 PM) My Guess: Adam Wainwright No real reasoning behind it, just a blind guess If you're gong to guess a guy on the Cards, Carpenter would probably be the guy.

They're actually hanging in there.

QUOTE (Big Hurtin @ Apr 19, 2010 -> 03:47 PM) The Red Sox lineup isn't "really good" anymore. With Ramirez gone and Ortiz not what he was, their lineup has regressed considerably. I'd take there's over the White Sox without hesitation though. I still think it's a top 5 offense in the AL though.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 19, 2010 -> 02:44 PM) What is it so far this season? His GO/FO ratio? Seems every time I've listened to a game, he's hit a couple of balls into the OF that were caught. 2.50, which is super high. He's hit 58.1% ground balls thus far.

QUOTE (Disco72 @ Apr 19, 2010 -> 02:42 PM) Everyone seems to notice that the Sox have had a historically below average team in relation to BABIP since 2007. However, the point nobody seems to be discussing is that even expecting the Sox to have a below average BABIP in 2010, the team is still waaaaaaay below what should be expected. Therefore, this is either one of the worst teams in the last 3-5 years (based on BABIP)...or, the team has been uncharacteristically bad and unlucky these first two weeks and should trend back towards a more typical number. I say the second one.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Apr 19, 2010 -> 02:32 PM) Yes, because our lineups are of similiar quality enough to make that kind of comparison.. It just goes to show that even teams with really good lineups can slump. I think they might be worse than us on offense right now. And I'm in no way making the comparison, I just said that to make myself feel better.

QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ Apr 19, 2010 -> 02:26 PM) This team is built around power? Really. Maybe they think that, but its not true. We have a lot of guys who have some pop, but I wouldn't consider them power hitters. Kotsay, Rios, AJ, Beckham, Pierre, Teahan, Ramirez are not power hitters. Konerko. Quentin and hell even Jones are power hitters. This team should definately trend toward the norm in BABIP and not be this out of wack. Our team should be more line drive oriented with our guys. And before someone throws out the luck standpoint of BABIP. We must be the most unlucky team then, because we have trended towards the bottom in the league in BABIP for the last 3 years. We probably are, but that's just as byproduct of a team with a power hitting mentality. You're going to hit a lot of balls hard right at someone. Plus, you also have to consider that since the White Sox hit so many home runs and that BABIP does not account for home runs, that also comes into play.

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Apr 19, 2010 -> 02:37 PM) The point is that his CAREER babip is .322. And Juan Pierre's is .317.

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Apr 19, 2010 -> 02:27 PM) You'd think so, but I'll bet there are also a few low BABIP players who just hit a ton of weak grounders. here's an example http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OF here's another example of a guy maybe we made the wrong decision with in the offseason, based on his BABIP http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OF Pods overachieved last year, his career BABIP was .322 heading into last year and he overachieved it by nearly 19 points. You simply can't make player decisions based on BABIP. It's not a stat that's a deciding factor for much of anything. It just tells you what type of hitter the player is and sometimes, how lucky or unlucky he was due to sample size disparity.

QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ Apr 19, 2010 -> 02:26 PM) This team is built around power? Really. Maybe they think that, but its not true. We have a lot of guys who have some pop, but I wouldn't consider them power hitters. Kotsay, Rios, AJ, Beckham, Pierre, Teahan, Ramirez are not power hitters. Konerko. Quentin and hell even Jones are power hitters. This team should definately trend toward the norm in BABIP and not be this out of wack. Our team should be more line drive oriented with our guys. And before someone throws out the luck standpoint of BABIP. We must be the most unlucky team then, because we have trended towards the bottom in the league in BABIP for the last 3 years. Notice how the article says "since 2007". I was not referring to only this 2010 team. BABIP is something that is specific to each individual hitter when you talk about offense, it's dependent upon the style of hitter. The White Sox have a bunch of fly ball and ground ball hitters and not enough guys who emphasize on line drives. Rios and Beckham might be the only ones that have very high LD%. Last year, the Sox were last in LD%. In 08 they were 21st. In 07 they were 27th. We've also led the league in FB% back in 08 and last year, we were 7th. This team's low BABIP makes sense. It's the sacrifice you have to make when you have Greg Walker as your hitting coach and you play in one of the smallest ballparks in baseball.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 19, 2010 -> 02:00 PM) Except Juan Pierre is a flyball hitter without having any power... Juan Pierre hits 55% of his balls in play into the ground. He's a dead ground ball hitter.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Apr 19, 2010 -> 01:05 PM) Well, the Rays just completed their smackdown of the Red Sox to the tune of a 4-game sweep in Boston. They now have the same record as the **gulp** White Sox. There's a good reason not to panic right there.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Apr 19, 2010 -> 08:05 AM) That dude is such a scumbag. Seriously, now that he is in the NL, he needs to get drilled every f***ing time he's at bat. I don't know why nobody has done anything yet. Lincecum or Cain should take him to town the next time he pitches against San Fran.

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Apr 19, 2010 -> 12:54 PM) http://www.southsidesox.com/2010/4/19/1430141/babip-math I looked for this elsewhere (sorry if I missed it), and was originally going to post this in the catch all, but I think it's just too big of an issue and deserves its own thread, especially since the article seems to indicate it's a 3+ year ongoing thing. When identifying offensive players, the article would seem to suggest that we are overlooking BABIP in favor of oversimplifying our needs based on stats like OPS. Since 2007, we have been near last in the category of BABIP, and the article further suggests that it's not possible that we are just "unlucky" over the course of three seasons, that's there's basically a 3% chance that living outside of the norm can be atributed to "luck". The poster child for a stat like this is Paul Konerko, whose career BABIP is .281. The league average BABIP is between .290 and .300. This is a guy who hits enough home runs, certainly has a high enough OBA, and seems to have a batting average and slg about where it should be. However, he's apparently not hitting enough "plain old hits" and that's what the white sox need more of. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=1B Surprisingly, Carlos Quentin also has an extremely low BABIP over the course of his career thus far, despite a fine OPS. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=OF Ironically, a guy like Alex Rios will allegedly help us in our cause (he has a way above average career BABIP). This would seem pretty obvious. This team is built around power. Power hitters usually have very low BABIPs since they hit more fly balls than anything else and fly balls are the least likely to yield a hit other than a home run.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 19, 2010 -> 12:13 PM) Wait, that's it? Considering we had a lead in almost every game so far, it's not that surprising. The Pythagorean W-L% would have us at .500, most likely.

I just noticed that Boston is 4-8. They've scored 6 runs less than we have (they did play one less game, still, 6 runs is a decent amount in one game). They have a run differential of -13, we have a differential of -2. To be fair, Boston has played much better teams, but you have to imagine that the people in Boston are also freaking out. They're also not hitting, just like us. So I guess we're not the only ones here that's really underachieving.