chw42

QUOTE (docsox24 @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 05:31 PM) The difference of course is that AJ is the C and Kotsay is the DH. I expect far greater production out of the DH. He was a vaulable player when he could play above average CF. He can't do that anymore and he should be a role player. He has no business being a DH. He has no business being a starting player and he has no business batting 5th. That too. If A.J. played anywhere else (LF, 1B, anything that doesn't require speed), he'd be a far below average offensive player.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 05:31 PM) Zambrano has more god given ability than anyone on our staff, but his mental state makes him dicey. I think I would take Floyd as well, because you know what you are going to get from him, especially in a big game. This would have been true like 3-4 years ago, but I'd have to say that both Floyd and Peavy are far more talented.

QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 05:12 PM) Who is defending Kotsay around here? Who ever defended Erstad? I wouldn't say the Ranger was defending him, but that was in response to his post.

QUOTE (Ranger @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 04:26 PM) Reasonable. Your mistake is in assuming that people that can make a case for having him hit 5th is the same as them having some sort of "Kotsay-mania". The argument above is a valid one. You can pretty much guarantee that just about every game, the LRLR matchup is going to matter late in the game unless it's a blowout or some pitcher is throwing a complete game, which doesn't happen much anymore. The real issue is that none of the left-handed hitters on the roster are all that fearsome (although Teahen has the best potential to improve and be that), so it's a pretty good idea to separate them as best as can be done. He really doesn't. They are very, very similar hitters in terms of production. They are similar, but A.J. is slightly better. A.J.'s career ISO: .142 Kotsay's: .132 Plus, you have to take into account that A.J. can actually post a .142, while Kotsay is hovering around .110. And you cannot tell me that there is not a Kotsay mania going on when Hawk talks about him like he's the most perfect player ever and that he can do no wrong. He's the new Darin Erstad.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 02:41 PM) AJ's OPS since he joined the sox, starting in 05 .728 .769 .712 .728 .755 Kotsay hasn't played regularly because of injury for a couple seasons, so it's hard to give numbers on what we might get from him, especially if we're careful enough to keep him healthy. But he put up a .732 in 2008, and a .783 with the Sox last year. I'll be the first to admit "Sample size!", but if Kotsay hits like a .300 hitter, we're talkign ab out 10-20 points of OPS difference at the worst. AJ and Kotsay seem like pretty similar hitters when it comes to OPS. You can't get me mad about that one right now, the numbers just don't back it up. Weighted On Base Average tells a similar story, but it says that A.J. is the slightly better option. A.J.'s wOBA since 05: .318, considering he put up a .326 last year, I'd project him to get one around .320, which both Bill James and ZiPS agree with. CHONE and Marcel have him slightly below .318. So we can say that he's going to end up in the .315-.320 range. Kotsay's wOBA in his last season with more than 400 PAs (2008), he put up a .316 wOBA. In his last alright season back in 2005, he put up a .321. Considering that Kotsay's regressing more than A.J., you can mark him for a .310 wOBA this year, which again, ZiPS and Bill James agree with while CHONE and Marcel have him lower. That 5-10 point wOBA swing isn't a lot, but it's a potential difference maker.

QUOTE (fathom @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 02:38 PM) The biggest misconception about Kotsay that I can't stand is that he's fast. He almost got doubled up yesterday with the bases loaded on a slow chopper to 2nd base that wasn't turned quickly at all. Exactly, he used to be fast. But people don't forget so quickly I guess.

QUOTE (ChiSox_Sonix @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 02:32 PM) There's nothing wrong with the player he was 5 or 6 years ago Bad grammar there. I meant to say that some people still might think that he is as good as he was 5 years ago.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 02:29 PM) Like it or not, there's logic to breaking up the RH hitters. Beckham, Quentin, Konerko, Rios all in a row, followed by Jones/Kotsay, AJ, Teahen, and Ramirez...if you don't break them up, you're setting yourself up to be hurt in the 8th and 9th innings by LOOGY and ROOGY people. That's not just for the heart of the order too...yes, Quentin and others have splits that say they hit RHP fine...but there's always going to be an occasional RHP, say a side-armer or sommething like that, which you can pull out of a hat to frustrate those guys, and if you don't break them up you're giving away innings. The ideal solution is to get an .800 OPS out of Teahen. If he can do that, he can fit in that 5th spot and not be a hole. Otherwise, I'll live with Kotsay until it's May and hes hitting .220. If he can hit .300 out of that spot, even if he does so with no power, at least he breaks everything up. You can get that out of A.J. He actually hits for more power than Kotsay too.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 02:28 PM) I'm not a big fan of facts. Fact.

QUOTE (whitesoxfan101 @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 02:27 PM) I'm very concerned for those peoples mental state if that's the case. If Ozzie and Hawk can be blinded by Kotsay mania, I'm sure that some may be blinded by his hot wife or the perception that he used to be a good hitter with a good glove.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 02:24 PM) You could have saved some work: I think some people around here actually think Kotsay batting 5th isn't the worst thing in the world. Plus, using some evidence to back up your argument isn't a bad idea.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 02:13 PM) Yankees president lashes out at Brewers owner and his complaints about being unable to afford to sign his players, says "I'm sorry that my friend Mark continues to whine about his running the Brewers" Easy for him to say. This Yankee arrogance is such crap.

FanGraphs had a nice article about lineup optimization. Optimizing Yesterday's Lineups Using CHONE projections and a nice lineup optimizer tool, the writer compiled a list of how "optimized" the lineups were yesterday. Team Actual Best Dif TEX 5.017 5.033 -0.016 MIN 5.257 5.308 -0.051 OAK 4.519 4.571 -0.052 CLE 5.019 5.081 -0.062 KCA 4.379 4.446 -0.067 PIT 4.552 4.628 -0.076 * DET 4.698 4.776 -0.078 TOR 4.676 4.763 -0.087 CHA 4.759 4.858 -0.099 SEA 4.478 4.578 -0.100 LAA 4.891 5.016 -0.125 HOU 3.967 4.142 -0.175 COL 5.064 5.258 -0.194 ATL 4.898 5.106 -0.208 LAN 4.773 5.982 -0.209 ARI 4.704 4.916 -0.212 FLO 4.813 5.035 -0.222 SFN 4.294 4.522 -0.228 PHI 4.783 5.102 -0.229 WAS 4.410 4.644 -0.234 CIN 4.608 4.846 -0.238 CHN 4.660 4.899 -0.239 MIL 4.629 4.876 -0.247 SDN 4.176 4.431 -0.255 NYN 4.381 4.645 -0.264 STL 4.843 5.116 -0.273 The AL teams obviously have the better optimized lineups since we don't have a pitcher hitting, but take a look where we are. According to this, we had the 8th best optimized lineup in the AL out of the 10 teams in action yesterday. And to be quite frank, TB, BOS, NY, and maybe even Baltimore might be ahead of us. Meaning we would've had the 11th or 12th best optimized lineup in the AL on opening day. For a club that could be offensively challenged this is unacceptable. Kotsay hitting in the 5th spot is one of the larger issues (Pierre at leadoff is another, but that won't ever change). Taking something straight from the article. For the most part, we have this right. Gordon's hitting second, Konerko is hitting 4th, but Kotsay is hitting 5th... We saw this yesterday. Twice, Kotsay came up with men in scoring position, and twice hit the ball into the ground. If those ground balls weren't weak, it would have been two double plays, not just one. Had it been two, the Sox might have scored only 4 runs instead of 6 (since after Kotsay's ground out RBI, Quentin scored on a wild pitch). If it wasn't against the Indians, that could have made a hell of a difference. Ozzie needs to stop playing around and either put Rios or somebody more qualified into that 5th hole. Hell, I'd rather have A.J. there than Kotsay. Or, move Quentin to 4th, Konerko to 5th and Rios to third if Alex gets off to a good start this week. He can play Kotsay as much as he wants for all I care, just hit him lower in the order where he won't be put into situations that can decide the fate of a game.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 12:30 PM) Huh? They obviously fixed it... It was an error.

So I check out Zambrano's FanGraphs page today and was very surprised... They had nothing but hitting stats for him. Then I saw that his bat was actually worth 0.6 WAR in 08 and came away pretty impressed. After yesterday's outing, you'd think the guys over at FanGraphs are trying to say something, lol. Carlos Zambrano is the next Rick Ankiel...xD

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 12:45 AM) 2nd in the AL, first in the MLB. That's just how good he is. Does that make sense? lol.

QUOTE (chisoxfan09 @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 12:44 AM) How would we rank Rios as a CF in the AL, MLB? 1. Gutierrez 2. Upton 3. Jones 4. Cameron 5. Granderson 6. Rios 5th or 6th is appropriate I'd think. BTW Jones, is Adam Jones, not Andruw.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 12:40 AM) LOL. They just talked about the Sox for a couple minutes giving us love for the strong pitching, then Nomar and Bobby Valentine gave love to our hitters.....sort of... Nomar: "With that lineup, they got Alexei and Pierre at the top. You know, Pierre is an excellent 2-hitter." Bobby: "And Gordon Beckham is remind a lot of people of a Nomar Garciaparra. And Beckham will really bring up the bottom of that lineup" Alexei at the top? Pierre in the 2-hole? Beckham hitting in the bottom of the lineup? I appreciate them dedicating a few minutes for this team, but wow, the boxscore alone would prove these wrong. Also to note, Nomar gave Beckham the nickname "The silent killer" In MLB 2K10, Kruk said that Ramirez was going to be a top of the order hitter last year, but sucked too much so he had to be put in the bottom of the order. I think there's something around ESPN that thinks Alexei's a top of the order hitter. I don't know why.

QUOTE (SoxFan1 @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 12:37 AM) God do I hate ESPN. Nomar said on Baseball Tonight that there is good diversity in their lineup. He said we have a great thing at the top of the order with Alexei Ramirez. He also said "Juan Pierre, who is great in that 2-hole." Then Bobby Valentine said that Beckham will remind people a ton of Nomar, and that he'll bring up the bottom of the order. I also saw this. Looks like Nomar had some nervousness going on.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Apr 5, 2010 -> 11:40 PM) If MLB '11 The Show adds this in it's game, I will trade for him immediately...... Sammy Gervacio with "The Stare" Marmol does a similar thing.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 12:04 AM) Brandon Wood looks absolutely horrible. It's now or never for him this year. Seems like he's been a prospect since I was in HS. He's the best AAAA player ever.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 5, 2010 -> 04:04 PM) Just caught the highlight of Heyward's HR on Gameday. I absolutely loved (I think it was) Chip Caray's home run call. "Swing and a drive. Belted right. WELCOME TO THE SHOOOOOOOOOOW!" Heyward had a really solid "I've done this before" style HR trot and arrival at the plate too. MLB 10 The Show?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 5, 2010 -> 08:46 PM) The amazing part is that Buehrle was so incredible, no one is talking about Rios's catch. Which would have been a easy double had he, Franklin Gutierrez, Grady Sizemore, (insert great CF here), not been in center.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 5, 2010 -> 12:46 PM) Brian Anderson strikes me as more of the next Jersey Shore cast... He needs to work on that tan.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Apr 5, 2010 -> 05:25 PM) I got the image of Scooby Doo in disco threads pitching. Hahahah. xD Ultimate Warrior should start every game thread.