chw42

QUOTE (MattZakrowski @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 08:11 PM) In that case, I'd stick with MVP 05 I don't think that game is backwards compatible on the 360.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Mar 10, 2010 -> 12:01 AM) Rivera's gmLI from last season was actually 1.84 compared to Nathan's 1.64. I think I looked at the wrong column. Doh.

QUOTE (sircaffey @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 11:22 PM) Of course they were below average last year. They got absolutely nothing out of LF, 2B, and C (one being the leadoff hitter which explains why they were 5th in HR and 10th in R). Not to mention they missed 80 games from Ramirez and 20 games from Lee. A lot of things went wrong last year offensively. I see a lineup full of respectable hitters, minus Fontenot. It's ok to say Dempster, Zambrano, and Lilly are good SP too. I know that it goes against your stance that the Cubs suck, buts it's ok to at least acknowledge certain things. No one's saying they are going light the world on fire, but they have a strong middle of the order and a strong top of the rotation. They are not a "horses***" team. The Royals and Pirates are horses*** teams. If Soto and Soriano can get back to close to what they were the year before, I think they could contend for the Wild Card. But I guess you have taken the approach that what went wrong will likely continue to go wrong, and what went right likely won't continue to go right. I actually think that Jordan's analysis was pretty good. The Cubs' offense will improve, but their rotation and bullpen will be their downfall.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 11:23 PM) I'd be interested to see their saves broken down by what their team's run lead was when they came into the game. My guess is Nathan's opportunities have been tighter than Rivera's. Just a guess though. Just go look at their leverages when they enter games. Nathan: 1.64 Rivera: 1.72 All from last season. Rivera has had a higher leverage in his career by about .3.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 09:25 PM) And just to add to that point, Tex, Joe Nathan is an absolute professional. Tough to wish ill-will on a guy that competes as hard and as well as he does. Yeah the same guy who cried about the coin toss after the Twins lost the game. He is definitely a great professional. After all, being a sore loser is what it's all about.

QUOTE (3E8 @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 11:00 PM) But he was furious on the inside Why is this f***er trying to imitate my perfect stance? MUST RESIST TRYING TO CHOKE HIM.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 11:18 PM) and he's so good. and it's amazing he has those all bottled up inside him so that when a guy goes "do Bard" he can. I mean Josh Bard? You've memorized HIS stance? jeez. I know how to do Josh Bard's stance... From a realistic point of view, that guy's not that good. He's just funny cause he over-exaggerates everything. Oh yeah, my avatar is proof that Quentin does smile.

QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 06:12 PM) Ha, I don't know I don't own an xbox, but my buddy was looking for a baseball game. There's only one... 2K10. Unless he doesn't care about new rosters. Then he should go with 2K7.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 06:54 PM) To put it another way...if the difference between Broxton and Jenks was 2.6 wins... Does anyone out there think that, if Nathan's gone, the Twins would be angry if they got the exact performance this year out of their closer's spot that we got out of Jenks last year? Yes, it was a down year for Jenks, but I think they'd be perfectly fine with getting that out of someone. In other words, completely understand how losing Nathan could be the equivalent of 3-4 losses, or maybe even more. If the Twins wind up in the mess that several teams wind up in every year, where it seems like they dread having the game get to the bullpen...that's really not an uncommon occurrence in baseball, and that's probably 4+ losses. Here's a interesting tidbit. Matt Thornton was a 2.5, right after Broxton. I'd say that seems right since Matt was probably the best reliever in baseball last year who was not a full-time closer. Really makes you wonder if we should have traded Bobby this off-season while he still had some value.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 03:30 PM) The question in terms of "Wins above replacement" is "how do you judge the average closer"? Where do you define the "Replacement" level? Do you define it as a league average closer, or do you define it as the level of closer that happens when a team has to scramble for a closer and disrupt your whole bullpen or make a panicked trade? Adding only 5 more blown saves to Nathan's total last year would make the Twins go from 47/52 to 47/57. That still is better than an 80% closing rate, and I'm willing to bet there are teams that were substantially worse than that last year. Lidge blew 11. Not to mention any high-leverage spots he pitched in that weren't save situations. The average closer should be about a ~1.3 WAR reliever according to last year's stats. I don't really know how you can define league average though. Broxton was the highest at 2.9. Surprisingly, Jenks and K-Rod tied for the lowest at 0.3.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 02:51 PM) Except WAR doesn't take into account leverage. Last season Joe Nathan came in at a 1.9 WAR and DJ Carrasco was a 1.3 this is because WAR uses FIP and IP when determining value so Nathan had a decent advantage in FIP (like .60 points) but Carrasco closed the gap a bit with ~20 more IP. So even though Nathan was in the top ten in pLI and Carrasco was in the bottom ten it doesn't affect their WAR because leverage never comes into play. Something tells me Carrasco wasn't worth a mere 3/5 of a win less than Nathan last year. Nathan had to have been worth more than 2 wins to the Twins last year. Yeah bullpen work is hard to gauge with saber stats at this point. Especially WAR since it's very innings based. That's why I think they're at least 4 wins worse without Nathan.

I just looked some numbers up. From a Sabermetric point of view, optimistically, this could cost the Twins 2 WAR and that's being pretty conservative about the loss. I'm certainly somewhat biased, but I think this his loss could result in 4 less wins for the team this year, if not more.

QUOTE (Benchwarmerjim @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 12:41 PM) a few of the names I've seen bandied about on Twins Blogs and message boards is Liriano or Perkins. if they can't make teh 5th starting spot, move them to the closer spot...or the bullpen and let Rauch close because it would leave them multiple LHP options in the pen Liriano could make a good closer if he finds his control. But he'd be more valuable as a starter. If the Twins had a better rotation, this loss wouldn't be as big. But since the rotation is pretty mediocre and the 6th and 7th inning spots might get more work, this makes the situation a whole lot worse.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 12:33 PM) Real tough blow for them. But I'm not about to dismiss them. I thought they were toast after losing Santana and Hunter. They were a Rick Hahn's son coin flip call away from winning the division. They'll find somebody to replace him and he'll do a decent job. But it still thins out their depth, which is very important.

QUOTE (HeGone33 @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 12:35 PM) Where can I find that original pic of Q??? That had me LMAO! I got it off of Dan McNeil's Facebook.

Wow, that's a HUGE blow. Looks like that bullpen might be a bit crazy. This is our opening.

Wouldn't it be something if our organization struck gold with two straight first round picks? After the likes of Joe Borchard, Josh Fields, Lance Broadway, and etc. this is very refreshing.

QUOTE (chunk23 @ Mar 8, 2010 -> 09:49 PM) Anyone else finding the Just Cause 2 demo as fun as I am? It's like every over the top 80s action movie in one awesome package. You can hop on a gas tank, shoot it, and ride it, jumping off just before it blows up, floating away with your parachute. Vehicles blow up the moment they hit a speed bump if you bailed out. Jump out of a plane, hijack a helicopter on the way down, and then fly the helicopter into a building. Crazy good fun. I'll need to DL that off Steam. It's coming out pretty soon. So is Metro 2033. March is a busy month for games.

QUOTE (Fotop @ Mar 9, 2010 -> 12:49 AM) Surely this idea has been floated before, but now with the Guzman injury does anyone think there's a chance Linebrink gets dealt to the Cubs? Supposedly they're sniffing around Jason Frasor w/the Jays and they're in desperate need for some RHP out of the pen. No idea what we would ask for, but If the cubs offered a decent spec for him, it'd clearly be a good deal for the Sox - getting Linebrink's contract off the books. Thoughts? A desperate Hendry is a stupid Hendry, even stupider than usual.

QUOTE (JPN366 @ Mar 8, 2010 -> 09:30 AM) How many names? I'm happy with 2K8, the only drawback to that is that W-S is still the Warthogs. I've put too much time into my White Sox franchise to start over anyway. I'm just waiting on the real rosters to be set, I've already created or have most of the players that are in the organization. I've read a lot of other unpleasant stuff about 2K10 anyway. I think it's 150 that you can edit. You can also create 50 players, so you can go for about 200 in all. 2K8 sucks compared to 2K10. Kush games stopped knowing how to make a game after 2K7.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 8, 2010 -> 11:26 AM) As good Dmetri Martin? About the same.

Hahaha Jonah Hill in a serious movie. This can't be good.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 7, 2010 -> 03:54 PM) I think the Rays would have also. But the guy who played only 412 AB's last year and gave them a .682 OPS out of the DH spot wasn't exactly the pat Burrell anyone would have picked. He should rebound. He was hurt last year wasn't he?

The Rays don't even need Blalock. The only thing he'd be able to do for them is DH and fill in at 1B or 3B once a week. I'd rather have Burrell as a full-time DH.

He seems really really nervous.