ThunderBolt

QUOTE (MHizzle85 @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 02:31 PM) They play seasons on projections now? Not anymore. Now they just go with gut feelings and conjecture.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 02:55 PM) Dang, and I thought Peavy and Garcia/Huson were an improvement over Contreras and Colon. I was referring to the offense. And this offseason too. Anyone could tell by the end of last year that our pitching would be a force to be reckoned with. It was also clear that our offense needed to improve. It hasn't.

QUOTE (MHizzle85 @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 12:10 PM) That. It also seems that some of ST is ready to hand over the division to a team that made a minor move. Yes, it's a minor move because he won't be playing as much as some of you think he will. I like Thome too, but we need to stop acting like this guy was the second coming. This "minor move" would have add a projected 44 runs to our average to below-average lineup. That's a big deal

The statistical consensus is that our team in the best case scenario is about as good as last years team. We've literally done nothing to improve, and are gambling on a couple x-factors to maintain last years offensive production. We're taking a hell of a risk by making a gamble like this when we have a potent pitching staff and a deep pen. If we sign Damon or Branyan, i'll be content, but if we honestly think we're going to get production out of a tandem of Kotsay, Jones, and Visquel then we're going to be giving up a lot of prospects by the time the trade deadline comes around. We're paying Mark Kotsay, the same amount of money that the Twins are paying Jim Thome. I still can't get over how absurd that it is.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 27, 2010 -> 10:03 AM) Did I miss us being projected for the same amount of homers as last year? Because it sure sounds like we are going to hit about 100 homers this year. Bill James has us down for about 173 assuming we're working a straight platoon of Kotsay/Jones. In the event of Jones starting everyday that rises by 11, and i'm sure it won't alter considerably either way if we factor in the offensive juggernaut that is Omar Visquel.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 01:24 PM) How many of these damn things do I need to buy? I thought those blu ray can hold a s***load of media? Why not put all versions on one blu ray? It really is ridiculous that so many versions of this one film were released in such a limited time frame. Had I bought the normal version, I’d be pissed to know that I’d jumped the gun.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 06:48 PM) LOL, for them. Where is he going to get at bats? They already have a superior LH DH in Kubel and need to give Cudyer and Mauer at bats as DH to keep them healthy. Its such a non story its not even funny. I'll appreciate when Thornton blows him away with high heat however. I'd be interesting in knowing what exactly Thome did to each of your family pets. You seem to have an undeserved amount of hatred for a guy who still has something left that he's going to offer to the Twins instead of the Sox. I think you're one of the best damn posters on this board, but i'm not reading you right on this one.

QUOTE (Heads22 @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 09:58 PM) The Twins don't plan to give Jim a ton of at bats as of now. Honestly, I see it as Matt Thornton's job to get him out late in a game. Gardenhire just contradicted this. He says Thome's going to get his reps.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 06:25 PM) No, it really isn't. Thome as a primary PH is going to be awful. If this means less ABs for Kubel, then good for us. Don't forget that the Twins use Mauer at DH when he's not catching. I'd rather face Thome as a PH late in the game than someone like Morales. I really see this team finding a lot of AB's for Thome. If i remember correctly their chief pitch hitter last year was Jose Morales.

QUOTE (The Critic @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 05:59 PM) Dave Duncan's next science project/miracle career revival?? Cardinals sign ex-Cub Rich Hill: http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/...-cardinals.html This is a great move by the Cards. If anyone can save this kid and his miracle curve it's Dave Duncan.

I really like Rich Hill to the Cardinals. Seems like a great gamble.

QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 06:15 PM) And Thome has agreed to terms with the Twinks. Worst case scenario.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 03:28 PM) See, him and I have something in common! "And i said, ""What about, Breakfast at Tiffany"s? And you said, "I think i remember that film! And as i recall. i think. WE BOTH KIND OF LIKED IT!""

The problem with the team is how many assumptions we have to make to make things look bright. Say what you want about Thome, but he was usually a lock to put up his numbers. Now, I’d contend that Aj us the only real lock to put up his year-years. We're gambling on nearly everything else. We want Rios to be the guy from two years ago, Teahen to be the guy Billy Beane thought he could be, Beckham to have a strong sophomore season, Konerko not to continue to decline, and so on so forth. I'm not saying these guys aren't going to get their numbers, I think Beckham is a special player, Rios' struggles can be overcome, it's just a hell of a thing to know that everything needs to fall in the right way to just get past not having a real DH. If half the team stays consistent, we’ll be okay, if half of them rebound we’ll be better, but that’s a heck of a lot of “if’s.” We have such a good pitching staff, why the risk?

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 03:15 PM) Add to that Sheets is older. Much older. Beane is lucky a book was written about him... I'll cue Hawk Harrelson and point out that he hasn't done s*** since the trio of Hudson, Zito, and Mulder were dealt/walked/started sucking. And he gets no credit for getting all three of those guys, right? Also, have you seen Brett Anderson pitch? Some of the arms in that system are nothing to scoff at. They have a hell of a future ahead of them, and nobody said Beane was perfect. He used to be ahead of the game, now he's just in the middle of the pack.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 01:29 PM) I'd say there are at least 4 or 5 that compare somewhat evenly with Kotsay/Jones 2009 - Matsui (116 games at DH), Posada (9), A-Rod (9) 2008 - Cliff Floyd (72), Gomes (24), Hinske (18) 2007 - Ortiz (140), Ramirez (11), Lugo (1) 2006 - Thames (43), Dm. Young (40), Monroe (30) 2005 - Everett (105), Thomas (28), Konerko (11) 2004 - Ortiz (114), Ramirez (18), Millar (8) 2003 - Giambi (69), Nick Johnson (30), Sierra (27) 2002 - Brad Fullmer (90), Salmon (21), Shawn Wooten (18) 2001 - Justice (95), Knoblauch (22), Spencer (14) 2000 - Spencer (33, Jose Canseco (26), Glenallen Hill (23) I didn't ask to compare Jones. I think Jones is a decent gamble for us, if Q is the DH. I'm asking given the circumstances, our full roster, can we afford rolling the dice on the DH spot on guys like Kotsay and Visqeul picking up AB's as part of a platoon. The Yankees could back in 01 and 02, because they had elite offenses. As did the majority of these others teams.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Jan 25, 2010 -> 11:04 AM) Anyone see the director's cut with added footage? Is there a noticeable amount of extra footage? i've heard the Ultimate Cut is the way to go. It has Tales of the Black Freighter along with book-ending scenes at the newstand inserted into the movie itself.

God, this A's rotation is going to be damn good if Cahill improves and Sheets' arm stays on.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 12:56 PM) but but but, I though Thomas was our full time DH? Those all look like rotations to me. And yet none of them involve players like Mark Kotsay, and Omar Visqeul. They all involve viable major league options for the DH.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 12:22 PM) The last year Kotsay was a full time starter was 2006. He's played part time the last three seasons. He had knees back then too.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 11:25 AM) Fangraphs does that. 4.4 @ 2b, last year. Ah, nice. Thank you. I think that lends itself to the belif that Nix has limited versatility, and yet value if he's played right. Ideally, as the new defensive replacement he might actually save a few runs late in games.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 11:21 AM) It's the Alexei Ramirez conundrum here as well. Alexei had a 1.7 UZR at SS last year. His numbers would have been better but for his bonehead mistakes. The question is not whether the ability is there, the question is whether the mindset is there. For all we know, Nix gets distracted just as easily as Alexei, and thus if he's coming off the bench most games or moving around to other positions, he won't be able to get the defensive focus down and he'll stay where he was last year, or worse. I also think his disastrous stint as SS, turned a lot of people off on him, and severely detracted from his overall range numbers. I’d love to isolate his UZR from only 2b, and see the numbers i'd get.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 11:14 AM) Let's be clear here - Nix was rumored to be a great 2B in scouting reports, but in 2009 he really wasn't great there. He was passable - made a lot of plays others wouldn't, but also made some bone-headed plays. Nix had 3.1 UZR in 2008, a 2.8 UZR in 2009, and is predicted to improve that exponentially next year by numerous projection systems. Given his minor league numbers, and yes, the dreaded eye test, I see him as a good-to-great defender and second base as early as this year.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Jan 26, 2010 -> 10:55 AM) Matt, As I said before. My own eyes told me that Kotsay was more dangerous than Thome. The stats then proved what my eyes saw. No, they didn't. The stats prove exactly the opposite of what you think you saw. What you're seeing is a mirage predicated on false assumptions about two players that you've seen.

Yeah, i'd say Nix. He's got decent defensive versatility. He plays a great 2b, a decent 3b, a miserable SS, and god help us but Ozzie is sure to put him out in LF a few times too. We need his power off the bench, and he's young enough to gamble on.