Chicago White Sox

He had a 115 wRC+ from August to October. That being said, I don’t use bWAR but assuming he must have had a lower value on his defense than Fangraphs. On the defense side, he did switch over to LF for the first time in his career and that might have caused some defensive fall-off. Ultimately to me he looks like a declining player but one with a little bit of juice left. Maybe $8M is a bit too high for what will likely be limited production, but seeing Lane Thomas get like $5.5M indicates it’s a weak OF market and guys will get a premium.

I think he’s worth more to us a 10th man than what he’d return on the trade market.

Why do you think he’s toast? For Tauchman, my only fear is he got non-tendered over a $3.5M salary. Even with some injury risk, he’s worth that salary if he can provide even passable RF defense. Makes me worry his ability to play the OF may be compromised some by his recent health issues.

Bader is likely getting three years. I want nothing to do with a multi-year commitment to Bader.

He’d probably be my #2 option and the better long-term play given his potential team control.

Lots of potential reinforcements on the pitching side (both SPs and relievers) to challenge incumbents and fill in holes due to performance or injury. Braden is your eventual OF reinforcement and Antonacci your IF reinforcement. Not a bad amount of depth.

Meidroth is the primary backup SS when needed. Baldwin or Sosa can cover there in an emergency. I think that’s a totally fine to handle the position.

I think Bader is going to get a fuckton of money relatively speaking. Hayes gets most of his from hitting lefties which is likely redundant with other OFs on the roster. Kepler is super inconsistent, but is a good defensive RF, has some power, and was super unlucky last year based on how his wOBA compared to his xwOBA. By no means do I love the idea, but it’s a shitty OF market and Kepler might be the best mix of floor & upside in that price range. I would not do anything but a one year deal with him.

I read teams have health concerns with Fairbanks over a nerve issue, which probably explains why other teams have prioritized non closers over him.

What OFs do you prefer in the event they trade Robert?

Ishbia just injected capital into the org to help pay off debt.

Sounds like the Sox are willing to eat half of Robert’s salary per Wittenmyer. If so, how would you feel about this series of moves: CF Luis Robert + $10M cash for RHP Chase Petty and 2026 Comp B pick Sign RHP Pete Fairbanks to 2/$18M contract Sign OF Max Kepler to 1/$8M contract Should put the total roster right around $90M in payroll and would leave you with this: Lineup : Meidroth, 2B Teel, CA* Montgomery, SS* Vargas, 3B Murakami, 1B* Quero, DH# Kepler, RF* Benintendi, LF* Baldwin, CF# Bench: BC: Lee IF: Sosa OF: Pereira OF: Hill Rotation: Smith Martin Kay* Burke Petty Bullpen: CL: Fairbanks SU: Taylor SU: Leasure MR: Vasil MR: Newcomb* MR: Alberto MR: Gilbert* LR: Paez

We have no idea that they last money lost year. They purposely cut payroll to an all time low since 2001 (inflation adjusted) to accommodate most of these factors. They may have lost some money, but no way to know for sure or to what extent.

He generated a ton of ground balls last year as he changed his pitch mix and added cutter and greatly increased his sinker usage.

What free agent OFs do you prefer?

Who dis guy?

Quero traded?

I’m certain they would have called down their payroll last year given the lack of a TV deal. I don’t disagree with you that they usually last year’s revenue as the starting point for the following season, but it’s not one for one and last year was a very unique situation. As such, any full season TV deal this year is going to be better than last year’s contribution.

I do get the vibe the Sox are eager to move Robert. The Reds seem far more likely to me than the Mets at the moment because Cincinnati is going to have to take on some trade risk to land potential impact talent. I do kind of like the idea of Robert & cash for Petty and their Comp B pick. Maybe that’s too much of a return, but I’d love to have Bannister get his hands on Petty while adding another $1M or so to our total draft pool next year.

Why?

If we want to trade Robert and redeploy those dollars elsewhere, that’s a totally different matter. I’m just saying I very much doubt that we’d need to move him to afford Murakami’s salary. And yes, I have us right around $84M right now, so another $6M or so to work with to get to that floor.

$90M is super low is my point. I feel very confident that last year was the worst case scenario in terms of payroll given the recent losses and lack of a TV deal to enter the season. And last year we were at about $80M. I think the plan was always to go up some this year without taking on huge long-term dollars. I feel good about the $90M figure being a reasonable, but still conservative figure that protects Jerry’s bottom line in a rebuild year.

Why do you think he’s going to turn into a pumpkin?

I have no idea where you guys come up with this stuff. Getz literally listed off like four or five needs at the Winter Meetings and said they were focused on addressing them via free agency. A $90M payroll is literally nothing. We were spending that much or more every single year since winning the World Series outside of 2018 (peak of previous rebuild). And even then, our 2018 payroll would be over $90M in current dollars. Point is there is zero reason to think we are going to be below $90M in payroll. I get we have accumulated losses in recent years per Forbes, but we also had gains during the past rebuild and brought on the Ishbia’s to a greater capacity to help address their debt. No way the payroll is going down or staying flat vs. last year after finally getting a TV deal in place and having some second half momentum, which means any minimum floor should somewhere above $80M and a realistic one would be closer to $90M.

I could see them wanting to move on from Robert if they believe he’s unable to stay healthy, but I don’t think they need to shed his salary to fit Murakami into the budget.