Chicago White Sox

So continuing forward with this, I’m going to first focus on the rotation and the broader plan there. My hope is that Cease is moved this off-season (ideally for positional prospects) and that would essentially leave us with one starter in Kopech. Looking inward first, we do have a lot of pitching prospects that are going to begin their 2024 seasons in the upper minors. Nastrani is probably the closest to the majors, but Mena, Eder, Cannon, Bush, and several others have a shot at being ready at some point. That being said, we should build up enough pitching depth so we don’t have to rush any of these young arms. Let them come up when they prove they are ready for an extended shot. Based on the above, that means we need to add three legit starters that we can pencil into the rotation. Given we are punting the 2024 season, I’m actually ok with a hodge-podge of lesser candidates competing for the #5 spot. Touki wasn’t great last year, but he did put up solid back-end numbers over his last six outings and at a minimum he can be a solid swing-man on the cheap. He’d enter camp as my favorite for the #5 job, although I’d have him compete against whatever lottery ticket arms we end up taking fliers on (and we should pick up several more guys like him, Patiño, García, Honeywell, etc.). Doesn’t sound like Davis Martin will be ready right away, but he’d be the guy I’d plan on giving this role to in the second half if Touki doesn’t appear to be the guy. So with two spots technically filled, it’s time to get to the meat of the rotation. To start, I’d be looking at one year deals for two guys who were unproductive or hurt for the Yankees this past season: Luis Severino & Frankie Montas. The former made 18 starts for the Yankees this year and was absolutely terrible, but may have had some bad HR luck and could be a change of scenery guy. What’s promising is he was very good in 2022 and his pure stuff last year doesn’t appear to be radically different. I’d offer him a 1/$12M deal and try to tack on a team option for 2025 at $20M in exchange for a buyout of $3M. That would give him a $15M guarantee, but I’d ultimately settle for a one & done. As for Montas, he basically didn’t pitch last year (1.1 innings in Sep) after having shoulder surgery early in May and enters the off-season as a massive wild card. He was obviously very good with the A’s but struggled after getting traded to the Yankees in 2022. It’s really tough to project how much he’ll get on the open market, but my guess is he will also be limited to one a year prove it deal. I’d offer a very similar contract to one I proposed to Severino. The main difference would be a slightly lower base salary at $10M but with $2M in incentives based on starts made. I’d offer the same exact team option / buyout structure, but again would be perfectly fine with a one and done deal since a productive Montas has real flip value at the deadline. To fill out the rotation, I’m going to test my strategic priorities and sign 26 year Cuban RHP Yariel Rodriguez to a sizable multi-year deal. He was a dominant reliever in the Nippon League back prior to shifting to a starting role for Cuba in the WBC. Now, my view on him is entirely based on very limited second hand reports, but he sounds like he has a starter’s repertoire along with the stuff to be a back-end reliever as a fall-back. Not sure what that costs you nowadays, but I’m willing to gamble on a say 5/$40M contract. Again, that may be a bit too high or low, but as long as my scouts feel he has the upside of a #3 type starter with the floor of a quality setup man, I’m willing to take a gamble in a range around that amount. In summary, these moves would result in the following rotation: Luis Severino ($12M) Frankie Montas ($12M) Yariel Rodriguez ($8M) Michael Kopech ($4M) Touki Toussaint ($1.5M) To me, that’s a great use of rotation innings in a lost season and all at a very reasonable cost. And as hinted at above, Nastrini (and possibly others) would be a real threat to take one of these roles as soon as his performance and/or injuries/trades permit. Even if the veterans don’t perform well, they buy us some time with the young arms. If they do perform, they provide legit trade value at the deadline or possibly some 2025 stability if the team options were to come to fruition. Regardless, I like how these moves fit the broader strategic roadmap I outlined in my previous post and I’d give Getz huge kudos for pulling something like this off vs. grabbing a bunch of safe innings-eaters.

Honestly, there is no path to compete next year. And as such, I’m going to outline my “do the right thing” plan which is entirely focused on being good again by 2027. High-level, this means punting the 2024 season (despite the lack of draft pick upside) and then using 2025 as a transition year for development. At a conceptual level, I will avoid calling up my big three positional prospects (Montgomery, Ramos, & Quero) until 2025. It just doesn’t make sense to burn any service time this year and I’d rather have them all hit in a more condensed window. The SP & RP pitching prospects in the upper minors are a completely different story though. Pitching is simply too volatile and injuries can happen at any time, so whenever those guys are ready for a shot they should get one. So beyond that one guiding principle, here are the rest of my strategic priorities for the off-season: Trade Dylan Cease if a quality offer is there, otherwise hold to deadline Only sign free agents to one year deals unless they are young and/or are greatly underrated by the market (team options are obviously ok) With rental free agents, prioritize ceiling over floor and hope those who actually work out can be flipped at the deadline for something of value Explore trades for Moncada & Eloy, but only deal them if it makes sense Leverage our open 40 man roster and acquire players with upside who may fall victim of being in stronger orgs with no space (Rule 5 as well) Once they are ready, prioritize playing time for our B / C tier prospects over any low ceiling vets (such as Sosa, Rodriguez, Colas, Lee, etc.) I still need to work through the specific names, but ultimately it’s all going to look very ugly for the 2024 season. The most important thing is to admit defeat and acknowledge there is no hope for next year. Only by doing that, can you identify the moves needed to right the ship by 2026.

Thank the love of god.

I plan to attempt this at some point today, but $78M to address all our holes seems impossible. Hahn really fucked this org so badly.

You greatly underestimate Cease’s value.

We should find out more at the GM Meetings this coming week, but from everything released formally by front office members and informally by media outlets like Merkin they realize competing next year will be tough but also plan to roll the dice a bit since they play in the AL Central. They’ll add some former name players like Salvy, Merifield, etc to help with the illusion that winning is possible and try to their best to avoid another 100 loss season. The real question is what do they do with Cease. He helps with the illusion of competing, but I personally think not trading would severely hurt the franchise. I know everyone is excited about Montgomery, but one prospect isn’t changing the trajectory of the franchise. We need a fuckton more talent and Dylan is the only asset we have (other than Robert) who can get you multiple prospects of potential impact.

I could be way off base here, but it sounds like he had some real mental health problems last year and really isolated himself from the rest of the team. And top of that, he was absolutely awful when he came back from his injury. Truly sad to see such a fall from grace from a guy who should have been a long-term star on the south side.

And by the way, I don’t think your prediction is crazy or even unlikely, just would be a very frustrating addition.

I don’t believe the Sox can be good next year, but it sure seems like they plan to half-ass “go for it” in the off-season to appease Reinsdorf. I just don’t see how a player as bad as Dejong fits into even a half-ass approach unless they expect Colson to be ready fairly early into the season.

I may just take a year off from White Sox baseball. If Delong is part of their plan, then I want nothing to do with this team until the old man is gone.

Who in the world is the SS going to be? Like I can see an argument for declining Tim’s option, but pretty terrifying to go into the off-season with holes at both SS & 2B with this free agent class.

I’d expect two guys from that tier and then one true scrap-heap guy to compete against the group of in-house “options” we have. Still a lot of offensive needs to fill and money will be tight after the Salvy trade. Going to be a weird off-season.

Small market habitual losing fan base syndrome? Not sure I follow, but ultimately it doesn’t really matter. Short of Jerry dying or selling the team beforehand, Cease won’t be here come 2026. What is the point of keeping him until then when there is essentially no hope for the first of two years you have him for?

Which is why you need to trade Cease. Just a complete waste to waste him on a team with no hope.

From my perspective, we need three starters, at least three relievers, a starting catcher, a RF, and a 2B to have any chance of competing. If they decline Tim’s option or decide to trade him (which we’ll know by Monday) then there are at least 10 holes to fill. And that doesn’t even count the bench or general pitching depth. It’s literally going to take a miracle to compete next year.

Not a a surprise, but damn does Getz have his work cut out for him to build a solid rotation.

Per Jon Heyman

https://x.com/VinnieDuber/status/1720202799181357348?s=20

Shouldn’t be too surprising given how many holes we have and a likely payroll reduction to some extent. I expect a bunch of C tier free agents this off-season.

Better than KW Jr I guess

Can we unlock the Fire Rick Hahn thread please?

I thought his responsibilities expanded far past just contracts?

Does anyone know if this dude still in the org? Currently listed as “Assistant GM” alongside Josh Barfield. Wild to think Hahn’s lackey would survive the purge, but I have not been able to find any evidence to suggest he hasn’t.

100% hurts fan interest. SoxFest was the one thing that has given my older son some excitement about the team. He keeps asking if we can go this year (and last year) and I have to tell him these losers are afraid to be held accountable for their sucking and it likely isn’t happening. Sucks for them because with that carrot I could have probably created a Sox fan for life. Unfortunately these cowards don’t seem to care about fan engagement.

Have they confirmed there will be no Soxfest next year?