Chicago White Sox

Cubs have a nice collection of position playing prospects, no doubt about it, but in general their system is overhyped.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 22, 2013 -> 10:31 AM) Hold on, a player with his traits and characteristics, who might not even have a "true" position at the major league level...and, is, at best, a 2B or possibly outfielder, you can see him being #75-100, but no way BA's going to rank Micah Johnson in their Top 50 even with those same stats in AA. And he's not even cleared High A ball, that's going to be a huge jump in competition from Low A. I'll just have to wait and believe it when I see it. And he's got a long ways to go before we're penciling him for Durham HR and XB numbers. Finally, 77% isn't a good steal rate. To be effective, it should be closer to 85% or at least 80%. As he progresses from level to level, it's going to get harder and harder to sustain anything above a 60-65% rate if he keeps running like this because his results are as much based on technique as pure speed, and superhuman catching arms at the major league level will beat technique most of the time. The Southern League leader in OPS is currently at .891, so a 2B with a .950 OPS and 70-90 steals would be pure insanity. I never once said I expect Micah to put up anything close those numbers in AA (because I don't), but there is no question he'd be a top 5 prospect in all of baseball if he did. Billy Hamilton was ranked 20th overall by BA after putting up an .830 across A+/AA last year (2/3 at A+ though) with a 155 steals. Imagine if he put up those same numbers over the course of a full season at AA with more XBHs and less SBs. He'd be ranked way higher than 20. And while I think Micah's defensive concerns are overblown, even if I'm wrong, he wouldn't be in much different of a situation than Hamilton. Again, I'm not arguing that Johnson will put up these numbers in AA, but if he did, you are so off on his value as prospect. A prospect who leads any AA league in OPS & steals is going to be considered elite.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jun 22, 2013 -> 10:11 AM) Is anyone worried about Micah Johnson being 22 in A Ball? Now obviously he has been performing big time but at some point doesn't he need to move through the system? He's the type guy that I thought would be moving through the system really quickly. He will be 23 in December. That's why he needs to be promoted soon. If he can spend the rest of the season in Winston-Salem, then hopefully he can be in AA by the first half of next year. That would put him on an age-appropriate time-frame IMO.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 22, 2013 -> 08:27 AM) We have to relax about Micah Johnson until he's putting up those SAME results for Birmingham. Yeah, we've got a lot of athletic ability in our system.....but are they baseball players rather than just athletes playing the sport of baseball? We'll find out. It's exciting to think of Johnson, Tim Anderson and someone like Billy Hamilton on the same roster, but they've all got to get on base at 330+ clips to be effective (due to their lack of power). It would be reminiscent of those early to mid 2000's Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim teams. Here's Micah Johnson's slash line: .338/.420/.534/.954. Right now, he's not just a speed guy, he's an all-around offensive threat at 2B. He's got 31 XBHs through the first half of the season on top of his minor league leading 55 SBs (at a 77% rate). Plus he gets on base at a high rate. If he hits like this in AA, he'd be a top 5 prospect in all of baseball, but the good news is he doesn't have to be incredibly valuable. There's plenty of room for regression in that OPS as he moves up the system for him to remain a valuable player. Also, his speed isn't going anywhere, so he should be able to sustain his SB numbers and a high BABIP even as he's promoted. No one should have him pegged at 2B on our 5 year big board just yet, but there's no reason not to be excited about him. He has the potential to be a dynamic leadoff, which is something this system hasn't produced since Ray Durham.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 22, 2013 -> 08:27 AM) We have to relax about Micah Johnson until he's putting up those SAME results for Birmingham. Yeah, we've got a lot of athletic ability in our system.....but are they baseball players rather than just athletes playing the sport of baseball? We'll find out. It's exciting to think of Johnson, Tim Anderson and someone like Billy Hamilton on the same roster, but they've all got to get on base at 330+ clips to be effective (due to their lack of power). It would be reminiscent of those early to mid 2000's Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim teams. Here's Micah Johnson's slash line: .338/.420/.534/.954. Right now, he's not just a speed guy, he's an all-around offensive threat at 2B. He's got 31 XBHs through the first half of the season on top of his minor league leading 55 SBs (at a 77% rate). Plus he gets on base at a high rate. If he hits like this in AA, he'd be a top 5 prospect in all of baseball, but the good news is he doesn't have to be incredibly valuable. There's plenty of room for regression in that OPS as he moves up the system for him to remain a valuable player. Also, his speed isn't going anywhere, so he should be able to sustain his SB numbers and a high BABIP even as he's promoted. No one should have him pegged at 2B on our 5 year big board just yet, but there's no reason not to be excited about him. He has the potential to be a dynamic leadoff, which is something this system hasn't produced since Ray Durham.

Trayce with a HR, almost has the AVG up to .270 on the year. Looks like Simon Castro is officially a reliever. Probably a good idea to get him used to coming out of the pen, because we'll probably need him in a couple weeks.

http://www.southsidesox.com/minors/2013/6/...eview-white-sox Nice preview of Bristol's roster. Has signing bonus information for some of the Latin American prospects.

Gillaspie would be a terrible everyday 1B. He's still a question mark at 3B because of his bat, so I don't know how you think he's a 1B option. If the Sox somehow acquire a stud 3B prospect, Conor moves to the bench or is traded.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 20, 2013 -> 12:49 PM) Because very few teams will give up a major league ready upper level guy in a trade deadline deal these days. If a guy is nearly major league ready, the team will find a way to call him up rather than trading him to see if he can help. How will a team solve their pitching needs by calling up a position player from the minors? How does a team fill their hole at SS when their best, most ready prospect is a 1B? I'd argue that teams with major league ready talent at their positions of need don't really have holes to fill in the first place. I don't expect to see a lot Hudson-Jacksok deals in the near future, but let's not pretend there won't be teams at the deadline desperately looking to fill holes that are willing to trade young talent for the right pieces. We may have the top reliever on the market in Crain. We can have one of the best bats on the market in Rios, who is under team control for two plus years, which is incredibly valuable. Peavy is a wildcard depending on how teams feel about his health, but he's also not a rental and could still be one of the more attractive SPs available depending on how quick his rehab assignment goes (although I'm not counting on it). Hell, even Alexei has some value if the right team feels they're a SS away from a serious World Series contender. The point is we have some attractive pieces that might get us some nice returns if Hahn plays the market right. There is no guarantee that happens, but expecting miminal returns across the board doesn't make sense to me.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 20, 2013 -> 08:50 AM) Keep in mind, it's a very safe assumption that the White Sox will get zero of the exciting players people are looking at. Why is this?

QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Jun 19, 2013 -> 02:30 PM) And to Jake's point, Walker no longer projects as a "high ceiling" type player. I think his ceiling would be mid-weak lead off hitter with a floor of never turning into anything. Given his speed and defensive skill he could be a 4th outfield that fits the mold of a DeWayne Wise type with less pop and more speed down the road. And again, I didn't say his ceiling was "high", just that it's high enough to warrant a spot in our top 10 prospects list. I do disagree with you on his ceiling though. A guy with his speed and ability to get on-base can be a solid leadoff hitter, especially if he develops a little more gap power as his body matures and he becomes a smarter hitter. Plus his range and arm strength could turn him into an above-average defensive CF down the road. I'm not saying any of this is likely to happen, but it would be foolish to deny his tools and say he definitely can't become that player. People need to remember that Walker was incredibly raw when we drafted him and that this is only his second full season of development. Last year he had an injury that negatively skewed his numbers at Kannapolis. This year he was sent to Birmingham before he was ready for AA. I take his total numbers with a grain of salt because of these factors. I look at his June and see signs that he may be progressing. All things considered, I still think he's a better prospect than most of the hot garbage in our system.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jun 19, 2013 -> 11:31 AM) No, his ceiling is certainly a starting outfielder but not exactly a franchise changing one. At his best you'd expect a fairly high average, but probably not .300. He should take walks, though, so an adequate OBP. I don't think anyone sees him even hitting 10 HRs, but that would probably be a max HR output. He should spray some doubles and triples and ideally swipe 40-50 bags with good defense. That's a not a value-less player by any stretch, but a secondary contributor on a good team. Alejandro is not the worst comparison, but ADA has more power and is not such a good base stealer. I said his ceiling was a "solid leadoff hitter" which is exactly what you described. I never called him a "franchise changing" anything. I'm not exactly sure what we're arguing here.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 18, 2013 -> 05:58 PM) You pretended my statement didn't happen. Are you ok with Santiago going back to the bullpen? So you are basing what you think the Sox should do assuming they will automatically make a stupid decision? When Peavy comes back, Axelrod is the guy who should get bumped from the rotation not Santiago. If that doesn't happen, that doesn't make trading Peavy for less than market value any less stupid.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jun 18, 2013 -> 05:42 PM) I disagree that his ceiling is especially high. Low power, high strikeouts means he has to be an elite defender and basestealer which will be hard to quantify and still not be exceptionally valuable. He will be hard pressed to be as valuable as Alejandro De Aza. I still like him, but he is not really a high ceiling player IMO. What do you think his ceiling is? 4th OF? If so, he shouldn't even be considered a top 20 prospect.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 18, 2013 -> 05:23 PM) Depending on how you define "Sell low", yes. Would you take a lesser deal on Peavy if Santiago was the one going to the bullpen? You all know he would be. Moving Peavy does a ton of things for the Sox. It clears $20 million, it clears the 6 man rotation problem that would push Santiago back to the pen in July, and hopefully does add talent even if the return isn't incredible like some of you are hoping for. That $20 million could reshape the entire offense next offseason, and could do so basically without hurting the pitching staff. Moving Peavy is definitely going to hurt the pitching staff. He was incredible up until his last two starts, one in which he had a displaced rib, so let's not undervalue him. We do have a surplus of pitching, but Axelrod or whoever you replace him with is a signicant downgrade. I'm all for moving a starter, including Peavy, but only to add a potential impact talent for the offense. If Peavy can't get you that because of his injury, then look into dealing him in the offseason or just enjoy his surplus value next year. We can always trade another starter now or in the offseason. You definitely don't weaken your pitching staff and trade one of your best assets for below market value in order to give Axelrod some innings.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 18, 2013 -> 05:19 PM) Who has written him off/been down on him? He's not a top 10 prospect right now but everything you've said is true. He's somewhere in the 10-20 range probably. Maybe writing him off wasn't the right choice of words, but I believe people are undervaluing him. IMO, he is still a top 10 prospect. I'm not going to let an aggressive assignment this year and injuries last year affect my perception of him. He has all the tools and skills needed to become a solid leadoff hitter at the major league level. Whether or not he can keep his K rate low enough in the future like he has been able to in June will ultimately determine his fate. I do think his ceiling is high enough to warrannt a top 10 spot in our system though.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 18, 2013 -> 05:19 PM) It would be insane to sell low on Peavy for the sake of keeping Axelrod comfortable. This team's success is never going to hinge on Dylan Axelrod, now or in the next 5 years. He's better than replacement level, but he is absolutely not someone to keep you from maximizing a trade return on your most valuable trade chip. Thank you.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 18, 2013 -> 05:14 PM) That's a terrible idea. Axelrod has shown he's got it in him to be a decent starter, he's not going to light the world on fire but he's a guy who can quite readily be a 2 WAR starter and that's a great asset to have at the back of the rotation. He's a guy who can help this team turn around and could well basically provide what Gavin Floyd has provided to this team if he can last 200 innings...which of course, requires sometime giving him innings. Putting him in the bullpen sabotages that and is just as silly as putting Santiago there. So you want to sell low on Peavy in order to give Axelrod innings?

I've noticed people are really down on Keenyn Walker. I know he sucked in his first two months in AA, which shouldn't be too surprising given that he only got 143 ABs in A+ last year, but he's starting to play very well in June. So far he's got a .300 AVG & .407 OBP on the month. The power is pretty much non-existant, but he does make up for some of that with stolen bases. He turns 23 in August, so he could start next year in AA and still be age appropriate. I definitely wouldn't write him off yet.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 18, 2013 -> 04:09 PM) At least if it were me in that chair, I'd take the best offer I could get for Peavy, Crain, and Thornton. Rios I'd take plenty of phone calls on, but he'd be the guy I'd have a threshold on; I'd want something really good in return for him. Reed, Alexei would fit in that boat as well. There is no reason to just take the best offer on Peavy. Either get a ransom for him now or hold on to him for the rest of the year. It's not like SP will be in abundance come the offseason. He'll still be an incredibly valuable pitcher.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 18, 2013 -> 04:22 PM) Rios' contract is good now. He's repeating his career year last year and is under contract for one more year plus an option at $12.5m per year. Over the past ten years, free agent market rates usually pay $5-7m per WAR. Rios is a 3-4 WAR OF being paid like a 2 WAR OF on a short term contract in which the second year is a team option. And it's the god damn trade deadline. So on top of Rios being a highly productive, underpaid OF with two plus years of team control, which you've shown is incredibly valuable, there is likely to be a limited supply of impact OFs available come July. Teams typically pay a premium for talent at the deadline and we have a guy who is much more than just a rental. Rios should command a very strong return. Peavy fits the same bill, but like others have already said the injury is a potential hinderance on getting full value. If that's the case, you hold on to him and consider moving another starter. I don't think you automatically have to move a starter at the deadline, but a guy like Quintana, who is young, cheap, left-handed, and under team control for multiple years, could possibly get you a king's ransom if a team is desperate for SP and doesn't want to use top prospects for a rental player. People need to put the Ray Durham fiasco behind them, because quality players are normally very expensive at the deadline. If Hahn plays the market right, he should be able to get real some nice prospects.

For those who have played both Bioshock Infinite & The Last of Us, which would you reccomend playing first?

QUOTE (Jake @ Jun 17, 2013 -> 08:15 PM) What makes you think this? Almost everything I've read has Johnson sitting at 92-93, with the capability to run it up higher than that on occasion. I was actually about to post that exact same velocity range. And the scouting reports I've read say he can get it up to about 96 mph. So he may not have ace-like stuff, but with his control he has #2/#3 starter potential and a very high floor. On top of that, he's easily the surest prospect in the system, so he's totally an acceptable number one prospect, especially in a system like ours.

1. Erik Johnson 2. Courtney Hawkins 3. Trayce Thompson 4. Tim Anderson 5. Micah Johnson 6. Carlos Sanchez 7. Keenyn Walker 8. Chris Beck 9. Keon Barnum 10. Daniel Webb

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jun 17, 2013 -> 07:35 AM) My prediction: Hahn doesn't make a move until at least July 20th, and when he does it'll be something like trading Lindstrom for a UT player prospect who is at least 2 years away. I just don't see that happening. Hahn has to realize this offense is a mess and that we need some young, talented bats to build around. Taking advantage of buyers at the deadline will be one of his best opportunities to do so. Peavy, Rios, Ramirez, De Aza, Crain, Thornton, & Lindstrom should all be available at the deadline for the right price. That doesn't mean you automatically trade them, at least not the relievers, but if you can get good value for Peavy and the position players you definitely move them. I actually think this offense can be improved pretty quickly if Hahn can make the right moves and acquire two young bats that can be in the everyday lineup next year and is willing to spend in the offseason. But the key is getting a couple cheap, cost-controlled bats at the deadline, so you can afford to fill your others in free agency.