Chicago White Sox

Sportrac shows a luxury tax hit for 2024?

Does the front office have anything do with these things? Aren’t advertising and radio deals handled by Boyer?

Moncada, Tim, & Robert combined for for 5 fWAR this year. They combined for 13 fWAR in 2021 where Robert only put up 3.3. Do you really think a combined 14 wins out of them next year is really that far-fetched? If so, explain why. I think you confuse the words “easily could happen” to “will happen”. That being said, I don’t expect a bunch of uber athletes in their 20’s to suddenly lose their ability. I fully expect them to be better next year and if Robert is ever healthy I think he’s a 5 to 6 win player. Moncada is the only one that worried me a bit and even there he has nowhere but up in 2023.

They also wouldn’t have traded for Pollock.

Rick probably has a burner account here and on Twitter. That “RH” Twitter account recently posted some real suspect stuff that was way too pro Rick for anyone not related to the Hahn family.

I mean, it’s clearly made up even if there may be a couple things that happen to be true.

I haven’t seen anything, but will acknowledge that would putting the pitching depth is a highly problematic spot.

For some context on our underperformance, the Sox went from 9th overall in positional fWAR at 23.1 in 2021 to 21st overall at 15.3 this year. That’s a 7.8 win decrease YoY or a 33% decrease. Who were the primary drivers of that? Grandal: -0.4 (-4.0) Moncada: 0.9 (-3.1) Garcia: -1.1 (-2.9) Anderson: 2.0 (-2.7) Engel: -0.1 (-1.6) Robert: 2.1 (-1.2) These guys were six of our top seven guys in terms of fWAR in 2021 with Abreu being the other. They provided 3.4 wins across 2,136 PAs (1 fWAR/628 PA) this year vs. 15.5 wins across 2,452 PAs (1 fWAR/158 PA) last year. Outside of Yaz, none of this should have been expected, at least not to these levels. And even with Yaz, no one could have expected his power to completely disappear after the 2nd half he had in 2021. As we look towards 2023, I can’t see Yoan, Tim, & Luis not being better. I mean, Robert could barely swing a bat near the end of the year and Moncada put up a 76 wRC+ despite averaging a 124 the previous seasons. As for Tim, he started hot, but imploded once the calendar hit June. Was there something going on behind the scenes (Jackie stuff, cheating scandals, etc.) or did he develop some bad habits? Regardless, he wasn’t the Tim we’ve come to know & love. With Sleepy Tony La Russa finally gone and hopefully a younger, higher energy manager in place we see all three improve next year. I could easily see an extra 8 wins out of this group next year, although that would be partially offset by the production we got out of guys like Andrus, etc. Then you got Leury & Engel, two role players who were surprisingly productive in 2021. The latter never seemed healthy this year and was just plain bad. The reality is he will be non-tendered and his playing time will likely go to Pollock, who if used appropriately should be an upgrade despite being overpaid. With Leury, the simple answer is he’s not as bad as he was this year and not as good as he was in 2021. IMO, he’s an ok 26th guy who is highly overrated by a front office who doesn’t understand how to value positional flexibility correctly. The good news here is he can’t be as bad as he was this year and even if he is our new manager won’t keep running him out there day after day like Tony did. We saw proof of this when Cairo took the reigns and basically stopped playing him. The real area of concern is Grandal. If his lower body doesn’t get healthier, then he’s basically cooked. And he’s at an age where you can’t bank on that happening. Given his salary, we have no choice but to run him out there for a month or two, but need to be prepared to quickly pivot. Whole Seby had a real nice offensive season and Perez hit well in AAA, the reality is we aren’t getting 2021 production back unless Grandal finds the fountain of youth. I think we need to accept defeat here for 2023 and hope that improvements elsewhere (as indicated above) can offset our losses at the catcher spot.

The Sox have two or three legit needs: SP3, OF, and possibly 2B. Yes, SP depth is a concern, but I can live with Davis Martin as our #6 guy and some minor league free agent types at AAA. For better or worse, the bulk of the roster is in place. We will need multiple bounce-back seasons from our core guys to have any chance next year and therefore we got to hope a new coaching staff and hopefully a few training staff adjustments can help there. When it comes to the OF, the focus needs to be adding much-needed balance and enhancing the defense. If we’re being honest, Nimmo is probably the guy we should be targeting. Financially that may be tough though, which could mean gambling on a Conforto return to form season. Either way, you’ve removed the 1B/DH types out of the OF and that will help significantly. And with a more modern manager, we should be able to get quality offense out a group that includes Robert, Colas, Pollock (161 wRC+ vs RHP), & Conforto or Nimmo. From a SP perspective, we need to add someone who has the potential to be a SP3 or better. And we should consider signing someone to a longer-term deal if the right guy is there. Right now we have control of our core four starters for three years (Cease & Kopech), two years (Lynn), & one year (Giolito). I really wanted Gausman last year and truly believed that’s why we didn’t QO Rodon (shame on me), but at some point we need some stability. This may not be that class unfortunately. Outside of possibly Kodai Senga (who may not even declare), I think we’re far more likely to pursue one of the many older arms or pitchers with question marks who will take a one or two year deal. There will be quality production to be found in this pool, but admittedly I’m not confident Hahn will be the GM to find it. As for 2B, if a cheap LH bat can be found who provides solid defense then I’d be open to it, but at some point you got to open a spot up for the young 2B we have in the org. And with Leury clogging up a roster spot, I’m not sure we have room for another platoon spot. To me, Sosa deserves a legit opportunity to take the job and run with it. After getting sent down in mid August, he put up a 135 wRC+ with a 8.7% BB rate, 15.4% K rate, .200 ISO, & .333 BABIP in AAA. It’s a risk no doubt, but with Romy (who flashed at times) & Popeye (who put up a 148 wRC+ with a 9.4% BB rate, 11.4% K rate, .211 ISO, .349 BABIP, & 29 steals over his last 250 PAs in AA) as contingency plans I think it’s spot you go cheap at. Again, the key to success in 2023 is rebound seasons from the half dozen guys who underperformed at unexpected levels and better health from the young positional guys who have struggled to stay on the field. But fully agree we can’t lose the production Abreu & Cueto provided and expect a better result without a couple quality additions elsewhere. The million dollar question is whether Hahn will have the budget to solve these two holes with potential high impact talent or if he’ll have to dumpster dive or deteriorate an already weak farm to address these needs. Anything less than $30M to play with and I don’t see how Hahn can get the job done and that’s assuming he can actually identify the right talent to pursue in the first place. But theoretically, there is a path to a much improved product in 2023 without significant changes across the roster.

If they don’t trade him, isn’t his luxury tax number $0 in 2024?

If the front office is filled with a bunch of hacks, then Hahn should be held accountable for that. Can you elaborate more on the lying and back-stabbing?

Worst season I can remember. Watching this team war difficult to stomach.

After the TLR fiasco, I do think Jerry will let Hahn pick his own guy as manager (unless there is baggage there like cheating).

The good news is Hahn will just fire himself when the times comes ?

In all honesty, it’s hard to trade any of our positional guys before you give them a chance to work with a new hitting coach. Vaughn in particular is in need of a new voice to help drive some approach changes. The hart hit numbers are great, but not when they are combined with a contact heavy, low launch angle, opposite field heavy approach. Like a ton of the guys in the lineup, Vaughn needs to sacrifice BA for OBP & SLG. Hopefully that will be the priority for the next hitting coach.

If we truly have $30M in payroll space, then trade Vaughn & Montgomery for Ohtani and call it an off-season (works per BBTV and they are never wrong!).

I think plenty of savvy organizations would love to get their hands on Vaughn, but the mismanagement of him has been atrocious and teams will probably want some sort of discount. Rushing him to the majors, burning a year of control for like 20 PAs, and playing him out of position has certainly hurt his value. Right now he’s a 1B/DH type with two negative fWAR seasons to his name who hasn’t proved he can handle an entire season of baseball. As for Montgomery, I think he remains the sole untouchable (excluding Colas) unless it’s for a legit star like Ohtani. More likely we see secondary guys like Ramos, Popeye, & Sosa moved to fill holes with B or C tier vets.

Does anyone know if this is happening? Definitely want to be part of the Q&A session if it’s still happening.

I’ll feel better if we have $30M to work with, but we’re also losing one of our top three players in this scenario. That being said, if they could somehow find a way to land Kodai Senga and say Conforto on a pillow contract I’d be fairly content with that off-season.

That’s the problem. Give a quality GM a $200M budget and we’d blow this s%*# division out of the water. The problem is the bad money and over-investment in the bullpen that will leave little money heading into the off-season.

I agree on the latter, but Rick may see more upside with those two as a 1B platoon than what a scrap-heap SP or OF would provide. Not saying it’s the route I would go, but it definitely hints of Rick logic.

I miss the optimistic CWS as well, but pretty sure the past 12 months killed that person. And in all honestly, I can’t recall the last time we entered an off-season where it was this clear there will be little financial room to play with. Usually there is a reason to dream that we’ll spend some, but defaulting to the trade market just months after being unable to acquire a single useful addition is a terrifying proposition. I’m hopeful that guys like Yoan & Grandal will be better, but I don’t think that alone is enough to overcome CLE and losing Abreu is going to hurt a ton as well. If Jerry isn’t willing to push up the payroll a bit, I think we will be hard pressed to make the playoffs next year. Not trying to be a negative Nancy, but Hahn has really put this roster in a tough spot.

They should be depth, but Rick on a shoestring budget definitely scares me and neither guy has much trade value. A desperate Hahn is a dangerous Hahn.

It still shouldn’t result in either Vaughn or Sheets playing OF.

You still have to fill the obvious holes we have. Guys rebounding may not be enough to get us past CLE and certainly won’t be enough to make us serious title contenders. A competent GM might be able to find a way, Hahn will burn what little liquidity he has on underperforming role players.