I’m in the Sox must add a SP group, but if all they did from this point forward is bring back Rodon then that is a disaster of an offseason. And the OP’s analysis only considers Carlos’ 2021 production and misses his broader body of work and injury history. Plainly put, if you bring back Rodon there is no guarantee you get the 2021 guy. If there was, the Sox would have QOed him because a 5 win pitcher on a 1/$19M deal is the steal of the century. It’s very obvious that either the Sox are concerned in his ability to be healthy next year or are worried that a lack of work ethic in the past will resurface and undo the gains he made last year. Either way, it’s hard seeing the Sox bring him back at this point.
If you assume Carlos if off the table, there are couple different routes to the address the rotation. Kershaw would be a tremendous addition if the Sox have the payroll space and he’s willing to come to the south side. The TOR stuff is still there even if it’s unlikely he’ll give you 30 starts. However, with Keuchel still in toe, you can baby him a bit and work around any injuries in hopes of keeping him healthy for the playoffs. He is the only free agent who likely could make an impact in October and would create a strong foursome alongside Giolito, Lynn, & Cease. This is nice as it prevents you from relying on Dallas or Kopech as your fourth starter in the playoffs.
After Kershaw, you’re looking at a mix of rebound candidates and high variance guys. Greinke had a strong 2020, but saw all his peripherals fall off in 2021, with K rate dropping to 6.32 per 9 being particularly worrisome. Smyly was supposed to be a savvy signing this past offseason, but saw his K rate drop by nearly 60% with the Braves. Archer returned for five ok starts, but the stuff wasn’t fully there and who knows how many innings he’ll be able to provide given he’s coming off only 19 innings the last two years. Kikuchi put up a nice first half last year with a tremendous groundball rate (a plus for us), but regressed down the stretch and hasn’t put a good full season together since coming stateside. Pineda put up ok numbers in 2021, but his stuff was significantly worse than prior seasons and he doesn’t have the greatest track record as of late. Duffy up put excellent stats in 12 starts for the Royals last year (3.40 FIP | 1.6 fWAR), but his health status is a major question mark at the moment.
One of those guys probably has a really nice 2022 season but they are all more or less complete gambles and odds are you get one who provides mediocre production. If you’re just looking for innings, then Tyler Anderson could be an option, but I’d like more ceiling out of any rotation addition as we’re an injury away from needing both Keuchel & Kopech to make starts in the playoffs. To me, it quickly becomes sign Kershaw or go the trade route to address the rotation. The challenge here, which I’ve mentioned repeatedly, is we have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. Unless you’re willing to trade Vaughn, we are greatly limited in who’d be able to acquire via trade.
Let’s get this out of the way, any starter worth a damn with more than two years of control at even reasonable rates is going to be off the table. As such, we’re looking at a very limited population of starters. The A’s & Reds each have three guys who meet this criteria in Bassitt (1), Manaea (2), & Montas (2) and Castillo (2), Gray (2), & Mahnle (2) respectively, making them our most likely trade partners. Even within this group, I think that Castillo, Mahnle, & Montas are probably too costly for us. As such, that leaves Bassitt or Manaea from the A’s or Gray from the Reds as reasonable targets.
From a cost standpoint, I think Bassitt & Manaea are going to cost less than what Lynn went for last offseason and won’t command a consensus top 100 prospect. Gray will definitely be more expensive given the extra year of control and is probably pushing our capabilities to the limits. Now, when looking at our farm system, I see 11 guys who can move the needle in a trade and I’d break them out into a couple of groups. First, we have four prospects that I consider untouchable at the moment in Montgomery, Kath, Colas, & Veras (as their value should grow considerably next year). After them, you’ve got the trio of young arms in Kelley, Dalquist, & Thompson, two younger positional guys in Rodriguez & Ramos, and two older positional guys in Burger & Cespedes. I’dd also add Sheets to that 3rd group assuming we add a RF.
So out of the pieces mentioned above, what would it take to land Bassitt or Manaea? Honestly, I think a trade built around one of Burger or Sheets and one of the three young arms could get a deal done. Perhaps a throw-in such is needed, in particular for Bassitt, but I truly believe we’d be in the ballpark right there as rentals just don’t go for crazy prices anymore. And’s the A’s are going to be highly motivated to move these guys and could use a power bat to replace Chapman & Olson who are likely to be moved in the near future.
As for Gray, things start to get more tricky. It’s hard to determine what the Reds are trying to accomplish next year as they have some nice young pieces but are cash strapped and plagued with several bad contracts. I don’t see them fully rebuilding, but I also don’t see them as legitimate playoff contenders either. As such, I could see them wanting a mix of current & long-term value. Given our lack of top 100 prospects, this is going to have to be a quantity over quality package. Does a package built around Burger or Sheets, Ramos or Rodriguez, one of the young arms, plus Cespedes get us in the ballpark? I personally think it does as it’s four top 10 prospects, which even from a weak system, is pretty substantial.
So in conclusion, I feel like there are three legit options to address the rotation if we’re serious about winning a championship next year:
Sign Kershaw to a ~2/$45M contract (assuming he’s even open to coming here)
Acquire Bassitt or Manaea for Sheets/Burger + Kelley/Dalquist/Thompson + throw-in
Acquire Gray for Sheets/Burger + Ramos/Rodriguez + Kelley/Dalquist/Thompson + Cespedes
Adding Kershaw at that price will likely limit what we can do for RF / 2B, while making either trade weakens a bottom five farm system. There isn’t a perfect option here, but if we want to win a World Series next year we can’t bank on Keuchel & Kopech to be 2/5 of our rotation. An addition is needed and preferably an impactful one.
I agree that the “handshake agreement” theory could be an explanation for why the Sox did not offer Rodon a QO, but his health was so shitty down the stretch and in recent years that I think it has to do more with that. Regardless, I’d be happy if the Sox brought him back after not QOing him as it means medicals were the never the issue. Just don’t think that will be the case and that we’ll need to explore other options.
