Chicago White Sox

Conforto has been a better hitter than Schwarber over the course of his career, so I guess I don’t follow that comment unless you are basing everything on the 2021 season in which Conforto dealt with a hamstring issue. I still don’t understand this “adjusting” to a new league stuff either, but will wait for your response to my previous post on that.

Why would a hitter be more successful in the NL than AL? What is it about the leagues that makes you think a NL can’t come over and be successful? I’ve never understood this thought process, but am generally interested in knowing the logic behind it. Also, I don’t think Conforto gets more than 4/$80M coming off the year he just had and a pick attached to him. Regardless, who would you rather trade for and what do you expect the cost to be? I honestly don’t know if anyone would be available on the trade front that would address our needs against RHP better and if there is someone I’m missing I’m guessing the cost would be substantial.

Why are they too costly? Like I don’t understand how anyone thinks 4/$80M or less is too much for this franchise.

I don’t have his medicals and am not sure why the Sox passed on offering him a QO yet. Either way, what does that have to do with the Kimbrel return?

Who did Rodon sign with?

I will say the FG’s report conflicts significantly with the Baseball America write-up, which refers to Marchan having “plus plus” defense and put a 70 grade on it. I usually go with BA over FG when in conflict and have no idea why FG would have Marchan as a top 6 prospect if his defense was “mediocre”. He’s put up solid K & BB rated and is still super young for a catching prospect (still only 22), but the complete lack of in-game power and minimal raw power should greatly limit his offensive ceiling. As such, FG’s assessment and ranking seem to go against one another.

With things being quiet, I’ve been treading up on this Marchin kid some. He sounds super interesting and would be a terrific prospect that could backup Grandal for the next couple of years. Baseball America has him as the Phillies’ 9th overall prospect on their 2022 list and below is their write-up: 9. Rafael Marchan | C Born: Feb 25, 1999 Bats: B Throws: R Ht.: 5'9" Wt.: 196 Drafted/Signed: Venezuela, 2015. Signed By: Jesus Mendez. Minors: .202/.281/.236 | 0 HR | 1 SB | 242 AB VIEW PLAYER CARD BA Grade: 45/Medium Track Record: Marchan’s excellent defense in 2020 spring training impressed Joe Girardi, and after spending time at the alternate training site he made his big league debut in September, collecting four hits in eight at-bats. Marchan spent the 2021 season getting juggled back and forth between Triple-A and the majors, struggling mightily with the bat and posting a .203 average in 67 games at Triple-A and a .231 average in 20 games with the Phillies. Scouting Report: Marchan makes his money behind the dish, where he’s a plus-plus defender thanks to above-average blocking skills, a strong throwing arm and the ability to handle pitchers. Marchan has a patient approach at the plate, with some of the lowest whiff and chase rates in the organization and does a good job of putting the ball in play. He needs to improve his bat speed, however, to get more impact on the ball. Marchan is working on reducing his groundball rate and needs to develop more physicality, with well below-average power currently. His plus-plus defense gives him the floor of a big league backup catcher, but if he improves his bat speed and power he could turn into an everyday player. The Future: With JT Realmuto entrenched at catcher in Philadelphia, the best role Marchan can aspire to is backup. He might fill a share of that role in 2022 if the Phillies don’t sign a veteran backstop this offseason. Scouting Grades: Hit: 45. Power: 30. Speed: 40. Fielding: 70. Arm: 60.

Yeah, unless Tony basically went completely rogue, I’m not following here.

This payroll narrative is funny. Reinsdorf has consistently spent in the top 10 when in competitive windows and actually top 5 for several years after the 2005 World Series. I know this may be sound morbid, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the loss of his wife has caused Jerry to realize his clock is ticking and to be slightly more aggressive than just top 10. And no, I’m not expecting him to do something crazy and go into the luxury tax, but $190M to $200M seems very doable for us.

Because Conforto was dealing with an injury last year and had a good second half. Beyond that, the dude has an excellent track record from 2017 to 2020 where he was one of the best hitters against RHP in all of baseball. That elite hitting vs RHP is one of our biggest needs and getting through a guy who can play a solid RF is a plus. As for the contract amount, he would have gotten a lot more than that if he didn’t have a down year. Given a fairly week OF market and the fact that GMs don’t typically overreact to single bad years as much as fans, and I think he gets large but not insane contact. 4/$76M feels about right to me, but that’s simply a guess.

I gave no excuses for Gauman’s second half being worse than his first. Baseball is a streaky game and given his K & BB didn’t fall off at all I’m not overly concerned. I do think he needs to tweak his arsenal / usage a bit to avoid relying so much on two pitches and think that’s highly probable under Katz. As for Rodon, he was amazing this year, but has never been amazing prior, is rumored to have poor drive / conditioning effort, and has an horrible health track with various elbow, shoulder, & bicep ailments. If our medical team thought his shoulder would hold up next year, then I would have happily QOed in hopes of him accepting it. But any multi-year deal for me to consider would have to be super team friendly and that seem realistic under Boras.

Because 20 bad innings in 2019 after not having a spring training? That’s a pretty stupid to think the best reliever in baseball is going to suddenly fall-off…

Yup, Hahn gambled that the guy who put up a 1.64 FIP in the 52.2 innings prior (including all but the first IP in that “rocky” 2020 season) to the trade and with a HoF track record would somehow remain good. What a fucking idiot. Too bad one of those other morons Friedman or Neander didn’t acquire Kimbrel first so Hahn couldn’t land such a ticking time bomb. My god the amount of revisionist theory here is truly astounding.

You continue to prove you can’t separate need / price from expectation. Tray is ripping the front office for not assuming Kimbrel would collapse like a house of cards. The best two organizations in baseball both were in hot pursuit of him and did not expect this either. You arguing there were other needs is a completely different argument. Also, the percentages you have are wrong. It was 70% of his innings with the Cubs that were elite innings and the ones immediately preceding the transaction. The 30% of bad innings came the year he didn’t have a spring training. Nothing suggested a sudden fall-off was imminent and anyone saying otherwise is full of shit to put it politely.

I’d rather have Scherzer too, but I’m operating under the assumption that Kimbrel is dealt for Segura+, which makes it much more challenging to also add a left-handed bat. Obviously that is far from a certainty, but was the point of the exercise.

I don’t have confidence Leury is a 2 win player going forward. As such, I’d rather divert resources to RF, 2B, and SP.

I’d rather save $4M to $5M and give his job to Romy.

Marchan is based off some speculation and is a name that James confirmed has been involved in Kimbrel discussions with the Phillies.

His xFIP was actually lower in the 2nd half than the first half. He did give up harder contact and more HRs, but the K rate improved and the BB rate was the same. Not sure there is enough there to be overly concerned.

To me, it’s now or never to supplement the base roster with pieces that can help us get a championship. From my perspective, long-term we can afford to add two guys with AAVs that add up to $40M or so before we start approaching problematic territory with raises, etc. Taylor would be a nice player, but I think 2017 to 2020 Conforto is the exact player this lineup needs and I think we’d be getting that player at a huge discount. As for Gausman, I want another TOR starter and while not a true ace, he gives us a quality #2 starter who may have some room improvement given his strong connection with Katz. His addition gives us arguably the deepest and most talented rotation in baseball.

So let’s assume the $190M to $200M payroll range for next year is accurate. How would you feel if the moves below represented our final offseason more or less? Graveman = 3/$24M Kimbrel to PHI for Segura, Marchan, & Alvarado Conforto = 4/$76M Keuchel + $7M to NYM for PTBNL Gausman = 5/$120M For just under $200M you’d be rocking something like this: Lineup = 1) Moncada, 3B# | 2) Robert, CF | 3) Abreu, 1B | 4) Conforto, RF* | 5) Jimenez, LF | 6) Anderson, SS | 7) Grandal, C# | ? Vaughn, DH | 9) Segura, 2B Bench = IF: Gonzalez | OF: Engel | 1B/OF: Sheets* | BC: Marchan Rotation = #1: Giolito | #2: Gausman | #3: Lynn | #4: Cease | #5: Kopech Bullpen = CL: Hendriks | SU: Bummer* | SU: Graveman | MR: Crochet* | MR: Ruiz | MR: Alvarado* | MR: Burr | LR: Lopez I don’t love the Segura fit at that price point, but he would greatly improve our infield defense at least and provide some OBP at the bottom of the lineup. And while I’d prefer Scherzer as a legit ace, I love Gausman as a cheaper alternative if Jerry won’t foot the bill for Max. The bullpen gives me some concerns on the front-end, so I wouldn’t be against another cheap add there. But the best part of this plan is we basically keep all our young players and assets, providing much needed depth and ammo for mid-season additions if needed.

Yup, I’m angry at armchair GMs like yourself who use hindsight to suggest they are smarter than Andrew Friedman & Erik Neander. But then I see you’re using a video from a year ago about Kimbrel’s “sudden & bizarre decline” with the Cubs as proof that he would go from best reliever in baseball pre-deadline to a complete gas can post-deadline and I realize this is just another one of your loud, baseless arguments.

One year of defensive metrics isn’t predictive and for players their age you should look at their entire body of work. The reality is Conforto is a better defensive OF and can play RF. There isn’t much to debate here. The bulk of Schwarber’s defensive over his career is tied to outfield assists in a single season. He has been a negative defensive player every other year, including the last couple. He is really bad out there as OAA paints very clearly. So yes, defense is a very reason for signing Conforto over Schwarber.

We aren’t getting Lux for Kimbrel dude. And no way in hell do they let Keuchel’s option vest under any circumstance.

Moniak is obviously not overly valuable but is fine as a throw-in given he is pre-arb with options. Kingery makes $14M the next two years, so he’d actually represent a reduction in our return with his inclusion.