Chicago White Sox

It’s only relevant because it shows Reinsdorf doesn’t have a precedent against it. We know he doesn’t like super long deals in general (see Machado capping out at eight years) and in particular for pitchers. But I think on shorter term deals he’s willing to go really high on an AAV basis. Just depends if he would do that for an aging pitcher, which obviously remains to be seen.

They wouldn’t. I was just curious what kind of moves Pal has heard we might make.

Then what do you propose doing this offseason? How do you get us closer to winning a championship?

Semien wants to get paid SS money similar to Machado wanting to get paid SS money. I’d wager he’ll happily play 2B if the money is right.

They’ve set the AAV record under Reinsdorf before. I don’t think 3/$120M is necessarily a problem unless Jerry just doesn’t like throwing big dollars at an aging pitcher. To be clear, I’m not saying it’s likely, just not impossible.

What you hearing Pal?

I can live with it if our rotation is Scherzer, Giolito, Lynn, Cease, & Kopech.

I think you’re looking Vaughn + Crochet as a starting point TBH. Burger is a nice little piece, but don’t think he moves the needle much for someone like Reynolds. The Pirates have little reason to move him now unless you make it worth their while.

For us?

Get me Scherzer then I’m 100% cool with saying “fuck RF defense” and signing a big-time DH in Schwarber.

Be a hell of an offense though!

So here’s the remaining starting pitchers on MLBTR’s top 50 free agents list: 05) Kevin Gausman: 6/$138M | $23M AAV 07) Robbie Ray: 5/$130M | $26M AAV 09) Max Scherzer: 3/$120M | $40M AAV 11) Marcus Stroman: 5/$110M | $22M AAV 14) Eduardo Rodriguez: 5/$77M | $15.4M AAV 18) Carlos Rodon: 1/$25M 19) Jon Gray: 4/$56M | $14M AAV 22) Anthony DeSclafani: 3/$36M | $12M AAV 23) Justin Verlander: 2/$50M | $25M AAV 26) Alex Wood: 2/$20M+ | $10M+ AAV 27) Steven Matz: 3/$27M | $9M AAV 33) Clayton Kershaw: 1/$20M 34) Yusei Kikuchi: 2/$20M 37) Noah Syndergaard: 1/$21M 39) Alex Cobb: 2/$16M | $8M AAV 40) Zack Greinke: 1/$15M 46) Corey Kluber: 1/$12M 48) Danny Duffy: 1/$10M 50) Andrew Heaney: 1/$8.5M If Matz signs soon, that would be 5 of MLBTR’s top 11 starters off the board and giant chunk of the B / C tier.

The pitching market is starting to move real fast.

This is basic negotiations 101 though. You’re starting position is not what you’re expecting and it’s probably even more ridiculous with Boras at helm.

Sounds Wood is basically nearing terms with the Giants…

Collusion restrained?

Given the differences in age (2.5 years younger) and contract expectations, I’d happily take Conforto over Semien. Also, interesting to see how much better Statcast views Michael as a hitter over Marcus. Year: Conforto | Semien 2017: 90 | 30 2018: 63 | 25 2019: 86 | 77 2020: 86 | 10 2021: 73 | 53 Obviously Semien has outproduced his Statcast projections (perhaps due to his pull heavy approach), but he lacks a long track of success and his offensive value recently has been tied to power despite limited hard contact. Just seems like a guy whose offensive game could fall off pretty quickly if the power starts to fade. Again, give me Conforto at less years and a lower AAV, even if he doesn’t bring the defensive value Marcus does.

There it is

I just don’t see it. It adds another right-handed, poor defensive corner type to the mix and we already have plenty of those. The guy I could see us silently pursuing is Gausman. He’s not a Scherzer type #1 obviously, but he’d give us another quality arm at the top of the rotation, is highly durable, and has a connection to Katz. I’m guessing it wouldn’t be a popular move here, but I’d absolutely love it if paired with a Conforto signing.

Oh 100% agree. I find most of these projections to be extremely conservative and obviously they lack context around injuries, personal issues, COVID, etc. Still an interesting data point to consider though.

Lol…fair enough, but that was us technically absorbing a bad contract to enhance the desire of a current player to play for us. The A’s don’t go “Yoelqui is a 40 FV prospect, but because his last name is Cespedes we value as a 50 FV kid”.

We’d probably have to tweak the deals some, say add an extra option year for Kopech, but it’s directionally something I’d be very interested for both of them. I think securing those guys for an extra year or two could really help extend the window and now is the time given they won’t be pre-arb again.

Fully agree

Yup. We should be looking to extend Cease and/or Kopech if prices are that reasonable and we can buy out a couple free agent years.