Chicago White Sox

Isn’t it $16M a year?

If we could get Conforto locked up before December 1st that would be amazing. Even if that’s all we did before a potential lockout, we’d basically have months to plan out our next steps to optimize the roster with Michael in the fold. But we’d starting from a position of strength with the lineup and have tons of different paths we could down.

?…controllable starting pitching means Vaughn is as good as gone. If it’s OAK, then we should be able to get a guy without including Andrew as Bassitt & Manaea both only have one year of control left. Montas is another option with two years of control, so would be a bit more costly. I’m open to trading Vaughn for the right piece, but I’d prefer doing so for a positional guy who fills a different need (Reynolds, Lux, etc.). Trading a talent of his caliber for an arm that could breakdown at any point seems very risky to me.

You didn’t answer my question. Why is it included in a thread about QO’s?

Here you go: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/

FWIW, MLBTR predicted 5/$70M ($14M AAV) and FG crowdsourcing picked 4/$72M ($18M AAV). So AAV is right in the middle of both with MLBTR hitting the year total.

Why is Kimbrel’s option being listed here? Are you really that angry at the front office that you need to throw shade at any and all opportunity? Like this is a great idea for a thread, but I guess it’s too much to ask you to keep your emotional subtext out of it.

Are you saying the Sox have met with Boras on Conforto and are exploring multi-year deals with Rodon?

This hypothetical would include a Cesar Hernandez type at 2B (think $4M to $5M), but with Romy as the backup infielder.

A few bullpen arms, but little bench help other than maybe a backup catcher.

The reason people don’t take your opinion seriously is because you ignore the fact that Andrew Vaughn was a consensus top 20 prospect across all majors publications (so not just a Steve Stone take) and act like a 23 year old who basically skipped all of the minors is somehow a finished product. Also, home runs aren’t the end-all-be-all. Vaughn is going to be a high BA, high OBP, plus power hitter. Maybe he only hits around 30 each year, but that will likely come with a fuckton of doubles. He could be our best hitter within the next two years or so if he reaches his offensive potential.

How happy would people be if our big two offseason moves were Conforto and Verlander? That means dumpster diving at 2B, but it might be financially doable without having to find a taker for Keuchel.

Not sure you need a bullpen with lineup and rotation (assuming Cease is there). That being said, I’d take the $6M you were going to give to Leury and sign a reliever or two.

I think you’re missing the context there

Tray has a very disturbing hatred for Vaughn and will use anything in his disposal to rip him accordingly. He much prefers his favorite young Cuban in Eloy Jimenez.

All I want us to do is add impact talent. While I prefer Conforto, I’d lose my shit in a good way if we add Semien.

My argument? I’ve made multiple posts highlighting my position. And I think a ~3.5 win projection for Conforto is fair, but I do think that would be challenging for Vaughn to meet next year as our RF. For example, Jorge Soler had to put a 136 wRC+ to overcome his shit defense and put a 3.6 win season. Maybe Vaughn won’t be quite that bad defensively, but realistically he’s got to be around 125 wRC+ or so to reach that level of production. That seems like a reach for next year and I would expect to closer to 2 wins as our RF.

What is your expectations for Conferto next year exactly?

Who is giving it as much weight? Combining his 2020 and 2021 seasons prior to the trade deadline puts his wRC+ at 105. That’s his last 700 plate appearances. Why do the 2020 at-bats not count at all? That’s over a season worth of at-bats and it’s basically as good as he put up in any year outside of 2017. It also happens to be his most recent years worth of at-bats, so I’m really struggling to understand why they aren’t relevant when saying a player is declining. Look, I’m not trying to make this personal. I enjoy your posts and your general point of view of things, but I fully disagree with your take here. I just don’t see how anyone could say he was in massive decline and a fall-off was imminent.

What numbers? The ones that come with a time machine? And for some reason the the 700 plate appearances prior to the trade don’t count because…reasons. ?

You are proof of how people can manipulate statistics and leverage hindsight to rationale any argument. Hernandez had five straight seasons with a wRC+ of 100 or higher vs. RHP. Yet you are saying the Sox should overreact to his 2021 splits with the Indians (which is the definition of a SSS) and assume he can no longer hit RHP? That’s actually your position? What I do love is that this move was somehow so egregious and yet you didn’t feel the need to complain at all when it first went down? Just like this “the Sox were incapable of beating the Astros”, you really seem to love ripping everything in hindsight. No one is arguing that Cesar was good with us (because he sucked), but no was predicting a massive fall-off in the coming months when he was sporting a 101 wRC+ at the time of trade. And I’m aware of the flukey HRs as I called them out at the time. The reality is the Hernandez deal was a low ceiling trade that didn’t work out. If you want to rip Hahn for something, how about ripping him for the garbage farm system that forced him to trade from the major league roster to add Kimbrel and limited his ability to acquire other impact players at the deadline. Cesar underperforming massively post acquisition wasn’t one of them.

How am cutting up segments? You ignored two years that broke your downward trend (plus didn’t consider defense), whereas I compared his previous 12 months prior to the acquisition to the three years preceding it to prove there wasn’t obvious age decline. Ultimately none of this matters, I just don’t like when people rip Hahn for things that aren’t true when there is more than enough actual shit to that he should be ripped for.

What am I justifying? I wanted Eduardo Escobar at the deadline. I’m just disagreeing with your notion that he was in obvious decline because I don’t think it’s true. And using a ~700 plate appearance period is not a SSS.

No doubt it’s a small sample size, but he also looked the part in June. The talent is clearly there and I think it’s only a matter of time before it formulates into consistent production against RHP. That being said, I tend to agree on Lux. I think the Dodgers would probably still value him higher than Vaughn. But if they’ve soured on him enough and have other plans for 2B, then I’d be all over that trade. I know many here feel differently however and that’s totally fine as Andrew should be a special hitter with time.

The dude didn’t have a 90 wRC+ when we got him, so a bit odd you’re using that as proof of obvious age based decline. However, from 2020 to 2021 in 691 PAs with the Indians, the dude had a 105 wRC+. Meanwhile, from 2017 to 2019 he had a wRC+ of 100. Combine that with defense that showed no signs of deterioration over the past couple years and I’m struggling to see this obvious age based decline. I am seeing some year to year volatility which is normal for most players.