Chicago White Sox

Is it the obvious right decision if you’d rather have someone like Scherzer in the rotation?

James Fegan, the smartest beat writer in my lifetime, seems to think Kimbrel has some value on a 1/$16M deal. ?

I actually liked it, but it’s definitely a long, slow burn movie that won’t resonate with everyone.

This is just dumb.

Just like he overrated Lynn & Hendriks? Haven’t heard you complain too much about those additions. Also, not sure how to tell you this, but when you’re a competitive team at the trade deadline, you’re typically adding veterans. I’m not sure why you consistently use that word as being some sort of negative. The rebuild has been over for some time.

His option is only worth $16M FYI. Also, if he’s traded, the money is being spent elsewhere, so if you have a high degree of confidence he can be moved, why not extract something of value? A piece like Dominguez could be very helpful given how thin our bullpen is at the moment.

More stretches of terribad? Do you ever do any research or just spew non stop garbage? Here is a breakdown of Kimbrel’s stats of the last three years: 2019 (Full Year): 20.2 innings | 8.00 FIP | 4.75 xFIP 2020 (July only): 1.1 innings | 33.94 FIP | 18.78 xFIP 2020 (Aug to Oct): 14.0 innings | 1.12 FIP | 2.36 xFIP 2021 (Apr to Jul): 37.2 innings | 1.10 FIP | 1.97 xFIP 2021 (Aug to Oct): 22.0 innings | 4.71 FIP | 3.85 xFIP Over the past few years he pitched a total of 95.2 innings and had a 3.88 FIP and 3.29 xFIP. However, in the middle of this period he had a 51.2 inning stretch across 2020 & 2021 where he put up a 1.10 FIP & 2.08 xFIP. 54% of his innings during this period, including the vast majority of 2020, have been elite. I love people rip his 2020 season for being part of his “downward spiral” but don’t have a clue that it was greatly understated because of one horrific inning to start the year. So again, I ask you why does he suddenly suck? What changed when the calendar turned to August and he changed uniforms? Is the velocity drop due to him being gassed out with a large innings increase? Why are you weighting his go forward performance so much heavier on the last 22 innings rather the 51.2 innings preceding them? I know you’ll have no answer and will just say he sucks and go back to living your incredibly pessimistic life, but it would be nice for once if people like you could actually have rationale arguments when declaring someone sucks with full conviction.

I’m sorry, but why is Jansen only getting a one year deal? And you think they should keep Dominguez so they can trade only god knows what for Hader? As for Iglesias, he’s the top reliever on the market, so he’ll likely get paid extremely well. Maybe five years is pushing it, but four seems incredibly attainable. Also, if there is no CBA, doesn’t that just temporarily pause the free agent process? I don’t see why that has a significant impact on eventual spending. Once a CBA is in place, teams will spend like usual.

Why people keep using Keith Law as gospel? He’s a smart baseball guy no doubt, but he’s also not an active front office member (probably for good reason) and wouldn’t have that much better of a read on the market value of Kimbrel than any of us.

I had Dominguez coming back. Why is that generous? Great arm but dude only has three years of control left, is coming off injury, hasn’t seen all his velocity return, missed all of 2020, and performed poorly in the minors last year. If I’m the Phillies, I’d seriously consider giving up him for Kimbrel if the alternative was giving Iglesias a 4 or 5 year deal for massive dollars (and I say this is a massive Iglesias fan). Given the volatility of relievers, there is real value in short-term commitments.

No way they go with Leury as the starting 2B. They may go cheap at 2B, but if they bring back Leury it will be in a super utility role.

The Phillies seem like the most likely landing spot IMO. Huge need for a closer and Dombrowksi is super familiar with him. I wouldn’t expect much, but perhaps a lesser reliever or a couple C prospects is attainable.

I don’t think the price to get Kimbrel will be a significant piece. But do I think the Phillies would be willing give up a lesser reliever with upside like Seranthony Dominguez? I think they just might and how is that not better than eating a $1M buy-out?

Yep, same GMs. How come you aren’t taking shots at the front offices of the Dodgers & Rays who were also highly interested in him? But hey, I remember you saying on July 31st that the closer with a 100th percentile xwOBA and HoF track record was certainly going to fall off over the next two months.

People are 100% allowed to think the Sox are making a poor judgment here. But if you want to say Kimbrel sucks, then provide some actual reason why we should expect August / September Kimbrel going forward vs. the April to July version. My point is almost all the commentary on Craig is a bunch of bitching & whining about his performance with us and has little to no objective reasoning. The Sox are capable of making mistakes (cough Tatis), but accusing them of trying to save face here is laughable. Also, I fully disagree with the “deteriorating skills for four years” comment, but I’ve argued against this too many times. Dude was beyond elite for the first few months of the 2021 season, so to act like he’s slowly been losing ability for a while now simply isn’t true.

Look, if they keep Kimbrel (which I hope isn’t the case) and it prevents them from adding a SP or RF, then these guys should be ridiculed. But hopefully this means Jerry is footing a pretty nice budget and holding Kimbrel for a couple months while the relief pitcher market thins out won’t be problematic for us. Then QOing Rodon tomorrow would only reaffirm that point.

How in the fuck am I using that as a defense? I’m asking you guys who say he now “sucks” with full conviction what is the driver was for his sudden fall off. You’re pointing to velocity, but that’s a symptom of a broader problem and not the root cause. Did he get injured in June or July? If so, is there reason to think he’ll be healthy again and regain his 1st half form? Was it something mechanical that can be addressed? Or perhaps he simply wore out from a ~45 inning increase vs. 2020. See, the difference between GMs and people like you and Parkman is they will ask these questions, discuss with their pro scouting and analytics staffs, and make an informed go-forward projection for Kimbrel that is based on data, logic, & reason. And yes, people should be cautious about Craig given his bad two months could be the start of a trend, but they should also realize they could mean nothing and have zero predictive value. Baseball people a lot smarter than me & you and far less emotional than half of Soxtalk feel there is a market for Kimbrel. Obviously they could be wrong, but it’s laughable to think they are doing this in hopes of saving a move that did not work out and jeopardize their offseason plans. KW & Hahn have endless job security and if they survived the James Shields fiasco, losing Nick Madrigal for a Hall of Famer closer with a xwOBA in the 100th percentile at the time of the trade won’t cost them shit. Right or wrong, picking up Kimbre’s option is 100% about extracting value and nothing more.

This post is just stupid.

And all these GMs also watched Kimbrel from April to July when he was unhittable. What changed exactly? Why did he suddenly suck? You seem to have all the answers, so loved to understand the driver for his sudden fall-off.

Again, Kimbrel tied for 5th amongst relievers with 2.2 fWAR and was literally the best reliever in baseball over the first four months of the season. If his August & September struggles were spread over the course of the season then he’d be looking at a lot more than a 1/$16M season. GMs are going to evaluate the situation objectively and be far less emotional than White Sox fans who are bitter about giving up Madrigal in the trade.

How do you know that’s what’s driving the decision here? They have a limited budget and aren’t going to jeopardize the rest of their offseason plans to prove themselves right on a deal that’s already failed. I know half this board thinks our front office is incompetent, but there is a method to their madness. They could be 100% wrong, but clearly they’re picking up the option because they think they can extract some sort of value.

I thought it was tomorrow at 4pm, but could be wrong. I think the Kimbrel option decision is due today though.

100% agree on this, but who is going to offer a sizable multi-year offer and lose a pick who has only looked elite for part of one season and has one of the worst track records of health in all of baseball? Let’s say the Sox really want Scherzer at the top of the rotation, it’s massive gamble to offer Rodon the QO IMO. I honestly think there is a chance they pass depending on their plans for the rotation.

I just struggle with assuming he’ll find a multi-year offer he likes when Gausman & Stroman both it was best to accept last offseason. Perhaps a different environment now, but I fully expect him to accept if offered.

The Sox have to bring back Rodon or add an impactful starting pitcher. Honestly, I really struggle what to do with Carlos. He was a legit ace last year before breaking down, but nothing on resume suggests that won’t continue to happen. If you’re going to make a sizable investment in a pitcher, why not go with someone who provides a much after floor? To me, either you offer him the QO with the hope he accepts or simply move on to another direction. There is zero reason to go the multi-year route with him unless it’s the most team friendly deal of all-time and Boras will never agree to something like that.