Chicago White Sox

Are we actually still evaluating offensive production based on BA in this day and age?

I agree with you to some extent. Hendriks & Bummer have both been their worse in high leverage situations, but we’re also talking about very small sample sizes.

I wouldn’t rule out an OF addition, but I think a big reliever trade is all but a certainty. The challenge we face is the farm is total garbage, so may be hard to pull off too many impact moves.

One way to address the bullpen while adding a LH outfielder would be to do the following: CWS Receive: Joey Gallo, OF* Ian Kennedy, RP TEX Receive: Jared Kelley, SP Jonathan Stiever, SP James Beard, OF Not sure if that’s enough depending on Gallo’s market, but we’d be giving up two of our top four prospects plus an interesting OF prospect. I’m sure some would hate it, but it would address our two biggest needs in one fair swoop.

All comes down to which Cease we get today

As anyone who follows this team closely can tell you, the bullpen has been a big problem this year allowing nine blown saves so far (tied for 4th in MLB). Here the stats for the key members of the bullpen: Hendriks: 2.50 ERA | 2.51 xFIP | 93 %tile xwOBA Bummer: 2.76 ERA | 2.87 xFIP | 88 %tile xwOBA Heuer: 5.68 ERA | 3.00 xFIP | 47 %tile xwOBA Crochet: 0.77 ERA | 4.33 xFIP | 77 %tile xwOBA Marshall: 6.89 ERA | 5.67 xFIP | 46 %tile xwOBA Foster: 6.39 ERA | 3.46 xFIP | 64 %tile xwOBA Ruiz: 2.71 ERA | 3.91 xFIP | 47 %tile xwOBA Kopech: 1.91 ERA | 2.85 xFIP | 96 %tile xwOBA I think the takeaways are pretty clear here. While Hendriks & Bummer have blown a combined six saves and haven’t quite lived up to expectations, there is little reason to doubt they won’t be highly valuable relievers going forward. Beyond that, Kopech has been an absolute beast in a multi-inning reliever role but is a risk to switch to the rotation at some point. Finally, Crochet has put up a great ERA by limiting the quality of contact against him (.307 xwBACON), but his BB rate remains concerning and he isn’t going to maintain a 0.0 HR/9 rate all season. I still believe Katz is having Crochet hold back his stuff a bit, so if the velocity returns come October he can still be a post-season weapon. The problem is basically all the other RH relievers and I’ll even include Ruiz in that bucket. His xFIP isn’t horrible, but he’s gotten very lucky based on the quality of contact against him, including a 51% hard hit in rate (4 %tile). No doubt he’s been the least of our problems out of this next group, but I doubt buy him being anything other than last man in the pen as he simply doesn’t strikeout enough batters. Statcast basically has Ruiz no different than Marshall & Heuer, just with vastly different results. Heuer has been a huge disappointment as I was expecting big things from him. He has been roughed up pretty badly on his sinker this year (.429 wOBA), especially against LH hitters (all three HRs allowed have come against lefties). That being said, there is reason for optimism with him IMO. His BB rate has greatly improved from 2020 all while slightly improving his overall K rate. Zone charts suggest he’s left too many sinkers center cut and that’s something that should be correctable with time. He’s running a ridiculous .456 BABIP that will normalize over time. His changeup has also developed into a nice weapon against lefties, with a 55% whiff rate on much higher usage than last year. I think his splits against lefties will normalize by the end of the season and he can be a valuable 7th inning guy. And now here is where the real problems come into play. Foster & Marshall were both keys to the bullpen last year and both guys have been utter disasters so far with 6.00+ ERAs. Statcast likes Foster better and I can see why. Excellent K & BB rates to go with very solid quality of contact against him. He’s been the victim of a flukey LOB rate (56%) and being left to die by his manager in Seattle. Since that infamous blowup, he’s pitched 10.1 innings with 13 K’s, 1 BB, 0.77 WHIP, 1.74 ERA, and a 3.41 xFIP (nearly identical to his full season figure). He’s not the 2.20 ERA guy we saw last year and he probably requires a quick hook when things aren’t going well, but I still think he can be a good 6th inning guy. That leaves Marshall and good god has this dude failed to carry the load. Last year he put up a 2.58 xFIP and a 98 %tile xwOBA. He was legit elite and he was expected to compete with Heuer as the primary RH setup man this year. So what’s changed since 2020? Well first & foremost his K & whiff rates are down significantly, dropping from the high 80 %tiles to the low single digits. His whiff rate on his curveball in particular has dropped from 58.5% last year to 4.5% this year. That is absolutely bonkers and it’s even more surprising given his spin rates and movement are very similar to last year. I don’t know if the issue is location (more curves have been in the zone), him tipping his pitches, or scouting reports simply being out on him now, but the curve is no longer the weapon it once was. Furthermore, without the curveball being a threat, guys are sitting on his changeup and that pitch has taken a beating as a result. Honestly, I don’t know what to make of the guy, but I can confidently say this version of Marshall isn’t going to work and we can’t rely on him being an 8th inning option going forward. So what does this all mean? Our #1 trade need on the pitching side has to be a high-end RH setup man. I think we’re fine from the left side, with Bummer owning the 8th, Crochet the 7th, and eventually Fry in the 6th. I think Heuer can handle the 7th on a championship team and I’m willing to stick with Foster in the 6th. There is a gaping hole in that 8th inning and that will need to be addressed, especially with the young arms in Charlotte off to rough starts. I’d give Marshall another month in low leverage situations to prove he can regain the form of his curveball, but if not, he’s probably a DFA candidate given his lack of options. Either way, we need a better setup man in place to move all the righties down a spot and so that Tony doesn’t feel compelled to use 6.00+ ERA guys in high leverage situations.

Some are saying Vaughn was safe on the triple play, but Tony didn’t challenge. I still can’t believe we have the most talented Sox team since 2006, but have Old Yeller calling the shots...what an absolute travesty.

I actually thought he’d pull Marshall after the first hit, but he basically left him in there to die.

So very true unfortunately.

Glad we saved Liam for that save situation!

The roster is so talented that it’s been able to overcome some of the worst managing I have ever seen in my lifetime. I was real young when Bevington was around, but Tony makes me dream of the return of Robin.

Nope, the LaRusstans claim it was a great game

I wonder who made the call not to do that? ?

Lol...so very true

After an inning of work before that too in which he got outs on two +100 MPH balls. Throwing him back out there was the definition of insanity.

LaRussa costs us yet another game Hope you’re happy @tray, @Green Line, & @IWokeUpLikeThis!

Because La Russa is incompetent

La Russa asleep at the wheel

Lol

I bet Tony pulls him now

Oh shit, Marshall is still in?!!

That was a surprisingly bad outcome

That was a surprisingly awesome outcome

Dreaded leadoff walk! Fuck you Chapman!

Should probably be in jail