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He’s sporting an 11.22 FIP in AAA right now so going to say he’s not ready just yet
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I honestly think Madrigal will end up being closer to a 3 win player and Mendick would be closer to a 1.5 win guy with regular playing time. I’m not suggesting that I wouldn’t be open to trading Madrigal (I was 100% in favor of the rumored Burnes trade), but I really don’t see Mendick as being a good long-term option.
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NFL 2021 offseason thread
Chicago White Sox replied to southsider2k5's topic in A and J's Olde Tyme Sports Pub
Thanks for sharing as I had not seen that yet! And that is actually a way better date than the early January timeframe I was concerned about. -
I think it would be because you lose considerable range. Eaton’s speed is still pretty good and he can theoretically still cover a lot of ground. You are asking Robert to cover a fuckton of space with Vaughn and Robert in the corners. It may work for a short window, but I’d look for a better solution for the long-run.
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People said this last year and then Mendick got exposed with regular playing time. I like Danny but he’s going to provide less overall offensive value despite his superior power and less base-running value given his lack of speed. I also think people are still overreacting to a handle of dumb plays Nick has made and I’m not yet convinced Mendick is that much better of a defender at 2B.
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Straight-Line WAR Projections
Chicago White Sox replied to Chicago White Sox's topic in Pale Hose Talk
It’s pretty wild when you look it, but we may have more underachievers than we do overachievers. There is just a ton of talent on this roster. -
Straight-Line WAR Projections
Chicago White Sox replied to Chicago White Sox's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Here are my thoughts: Hitters: 1B: Abreu (3.5 | 7.0) - OVER 2B: Madrigal (2.5 | 0.5*) - EVEN SS: Anderson (5.0 | 5.7) - OVER 3B: Moncada (5.0 | 5.6) - OVER LF: Vaughn (2.5 | NA) - OVER CF: Garcia (-1.5 | 1.2) - OVER RF: Eaton (3.0 | 5.9) - UNDER DH: Mercedes (5.5 | NA) - UNDER CA: Grandal (2.5 | 5.8) - OVER BC: Collins (2.0 | -0.3) - EVEN Honestly, I think the bulk of these guys will outperform their straight-line estimates, even if just slightly. Several of them got off to slow starts or dealt with injuries. Vaughn should continue to grow. Leury can’t be as bad as he’s been. To me, the only clear regression candidate is Yermin although I’m skeptical Adam will be able to stay healthy over the course of the season. I’m probably on the optimistic side with Collins, but I’ve always been a fan and he should get enough playing time to hit two wins if used primarily against RHP. Pitchers: SP1: Giolito (2.0 | 5.4) - OVER SP2: Keuchel (1.5 | 5.7) - OVER SP3: Lynn (5.0 | 6.7) - EVEN SP4: Cease (4.5 | 1.5*) - EVEN SP5: Rodon (6.5 | 2.7) - UNDER SP6: Kopech (4.5 | NA) - OVER CL: Hendriks (0.0 | 3.8) - OVER SU1: Bummer (1.5 | 1.3) - OVER SU2: Heuer (1.0 | 1.4) - OVER SU3: Crochet (1.0 | 2.0*) - OVER Without question Giolito will blow past that 2 win projection out of the water. Keuchel should be good for at least 2 wins if he stays healthy. I seriously doubt Rodon will remain the best pitcher on the planet for the remainder of the season, so there should be some regression there. I do think Lynn & Cease will hit their win projections. As for the bullpen, I think they all exceed their straight-line numbers. Hendriks in particular will be better and is clearly the victim of flukey HR luck, but I think all of the big four relievers will outperform their projections. What’s crazy is as good as this team has been, I think overall it should probably be better going forward health permitting. -
Having played ~20% of our total games this year, I figured it would be a cool exercise to see what full season pace that would put them at for fWAR and debate who we think will over or under deliver on those numbers. For each player, the number to the left of the pipe will represent their current straight-line fWAR projection and the number to the right will represent their career high. For 2020 I will simply use a 2.7 multiplier to project what a full year figure would have been. I did make a couple exceptions for rookies who came up mid year which are marked by an asterisk. Hitters: 1B: Abreu (3.5 | 7.0) 2B: Madrigal (2.5 | 0.5*) SS: Anderson (5.0 | 5.7) 3B: Moncada (5.0 | 5.6) LF: Vaughn (2.5 | NA) CF: Garcia (-1.5 | 1.2) RF: Eaton (3.0 | 5.9) DH: Mercedes (5.5 | NA) CA: Grandal (2.5 | 5.8) BC: Collins (2.0 | -0.3) Pitchers: SP1: Giolito (2.0 | 5.4) SP2: Keuchel (1.5 | 5.7) SP3: Lynn (5.0 | 6.7) SP4: Cease (4.5 | 1.5*) SP5: Rodon (6.5 | 2.7) SP6: Kopech (4.5 | NA) CL: Hendriks (0.0 | 3.8) SU1: Bummer (1.5 | 1.3) SU2: Heuer (1.0 | 1.4) SU3: Crochet (1.0 | 2.0*)