Chicago White Sox

Looking at some of Keuchel’s Statcast data and other advanced metrics, it’s very clear the dude is going to regress hard next year. He should still be a solid starter and will likely outperform what projection systems expect out of him given the strength of our infield defense, but a sub 3.00 ERA is incredibly unlikely to happen next year. As such, I think I’ve convinced myself we need to add Musgrove to the mix. I’m still very high on Cease and am hopeful that with some grip / mechanical changes he can reduce the cutting effect of his 4 seamer and improve his command of the pitch, which will be critical for him to ever make the leap to TOR starter. However, until that actually happens he can’t be relied on to be more than a #5 type. With Kopech on a strict innings limit and not having pitched in two years, he can’t be counted on to be anything more than a partial back-end contributor next year. Given the fact these two arms are still works in process, adding a reliable #4 starter is an absolute must for us. And if we can add one who has #3 starter upside like Musgrove, all the better as it may help prevent against worse than expected fall-off from Dallas next year. Joe Musgrove had a very promising 2020 season, finishing with a xwOBA in the 81th percentile and pitching at what was effectively a 4 fWAR pace. Looking at his Statcast data, two things stand out as potential drivers for what was a YoY gain in performance. First & foremost, he started using his breaking balls (slider & curve) much more at the expense of his 4 seamer & cutter, which is what most damage against him was on. In 2018 he used his curve & slider a combined ~21%, in 2019 it was a combined ~32%, and finally in 2020 it was a combined ~44%. More interesting, he experienced sizable spikes in the spin rates on both of these pitches last year, which just so happens to correspond with the whiff rates on these pitches from sitting around 40% in 2019 to 50%+ in 2020. In aggregate, these changes led to a whiff rate of 33% in 2020, which reflects an 8.3 point improvement vs. 2019. That’s absolute insanity and makes him a completely different pitcher if sustainable. Now, therein lies the crux of the problem. Did Musgrove & the Pirates push for changes to his pitch usage and other things that could have improved the spin rates on his breaking balls? I obviously have no idea and given this is an eight game sample we’re looking at, it’s not a slam dunk that this version of Musgrove is sustainable over a 32 start season. That being said, for the right price, I’m willing to find out. If the Pirates are willing to accept a package along the lines of Thompson, Adolfo, & Beard (for all I know that may be way too light) I think I’d go ahead and pull the trigger. At worst he should be a solid #4 type, but the potential is there for him to leap frog Keuchel and become our #3 starter, which come October could be the difference between winning and losing a playoff series.

To be honest, with how many good QB prospects there are in this draft it’s almost unacceptable for the Bears not to select one unless they are going to fully commit to Mitch. And given we declined his 5th year option, I’m quite terrified at what it would take to bring him back. Mitch has looked better as of late, but will he ever be good enough to take us to the promised land without an elite defense? I don’t see that in him at all.

Oh no doubt, but given where he is in his career, he’s probably next in line with a rebound if he’s even open to an extension.

They have already offered an extension to Cease and he rejected. That being said, he’s probably still next in line amongst the three you listed.

I don’t think a single team would allow him to pitch every 4th day, so while he might want that I don’t think there is a chance in hell he gets it.

I have no idea why you think these guys are all suddenly going to be elite prospects. Three of the guys have never even played baseball in the U.S. Is it in the range of outcomes? Possibly, because these guys all have high ceilings, but the game is filled with prospects like this and the hit rates are fairly low. Hoyer took these prospects because the elite guys, more proven guys were probably off limits and given where their rebuild is heading, he’s able to gamble on kids that are years away. I think you’re giving Hoyer way too much credit here, he simply made the best he could out of a shit hand he was dealt due to the Ricketts’ poor financial situation.

If they really on a tight budget and want Hendriks above all else, Musgrove may be the better play than rolling the dice on whatever free agent starter might be willing to take $8M or less.

Thanks. And that means we hopefully have at least another $21M to work with as I believe last year’s payroll was around $130M on a full season basis. The challenge is Hendriks will likely eat up $13M of that if we are able to convert, leaving potentially only $8M for a #4 starter and a bat. Quintana, Richards, Paxton, & Kluber might end up taking one year deals, but I’m confident they all get $10M+, which means we need Jerry to push this thing closer to $135M to $140M or will need to settle for C tier free agents to fill out our remaining holes or skip a bat altogether. I’m definitely concerned they add Hendriks and then go super cheap elsewhere, which would put us in a dangerous spot from a depth perspective. And that really sucks, because for $140M or a 7.5% payroll increase vs 2020, we could probably add Hendriks, one of those starters, and La Stella or Schwarber. Do that and you immediately have a fairly complete roster to start the season and keep most of your prospect currency intact for whatever holes present themselves, all for an extra $10M that will have no bearing on the quality of life for anyone in our ownership group.

Regarding Stiever, I think we generally shouldn’t overreact to how guys looked in the 2020 season, especially on the bad side of things. Dude had a ton of helium heading into 2020 and it’s very possible the bizarreness this past year impacted his stuff. IMO, plenty of guys didn’t look right this past year, Lopez being one of them. Obviously we should still be open to dealing him, but I don’t think his brief major league appearances did much to help his value and I’d rather give him a chance to rebound than assume the kid with underwhelming stuff we saw this year is here to stay and potentially sell low on him. Also, I actually think the Pirates would prefer a younger kid like Thompson anyways. The Pirates already targeted a super young arm as the centerpiece of the Bell trade and I could see the same thing happening with Musgrove. Just fits their timeline better. A guy like Adolfo could be of interest of them as a secondary piece, but I do think they’d also want one of Beard, Bailey, Bush, Rodriguez, Ramos, or Gladney. I’ll keep asking it, but are we better off doing Thompson + Adolfo + Beard for Musgrove or keeping the assets and just signing Richards? If money is truly tight, the former might allow you sign Hendriks and add a left-handed bat in the La Stella or Schwarber mold. Still not sure how I feel about giving up talent when there are decent starters who just cost money, but I hadn’t thought of that last consideration until now.

Great stuff and thanks for sharing!

I’m not sure what Adolfo’s option situation is, but he’s getting dangerously close to being Basabe’d and probably should be moved if a team places a reasonably high value on him. However, with Dunning gone I’m a little hesitant to give Stiever up as he’s the only starter we have in the minors with any semblance of upside who might be able to help in the next couple years until the Kelley, Thompson, Dalquist, & Vera group is ready. All that being said, I think the Pirates would be far more interested in pieces a little farther away since they won’t be contending anytime soon.

While this may be true, the Sox seem determined to use him in the majors next year as a reliever.

Gotta disagree with you here. Katz has already stated that Kopech will be on a strict innings limit next year and five starters is not enough to get through a normal season let alone a pandemic-impacted one. We need a solid #4 starter at minimum to ensure the most basic level of depth. I’ll keep saying it, but Kopech needs to the be #6 starter to begin the season (in AAA), Lopez the #7 starter (in bullpen), and Stiever the #8 (in AAA). Still a lot of uncertainty there, but most teams aren’t going to more than six legit starters outside maybe the Dodgers.

Are they actually that high? I only get to ~$109M ignoring signing bonuses and leaving three roster spots open for outside additions. If my numbers are correct, that means we’d be ~$31M away from a $140M payroll figure, which is probably what it would cost to add the three guys you mentioned. I’m still fairly confident we spend on a closer and a #4 starter, but just not sure if Jerry will allow us to splurge on that bat. I see that being a late January or early February addition when someone is desperate for a job and is willing to take something like 1/$5M from us.

And basically every member of the White Sox acknowledged just how big of an asshole A.J. was while with us.

Lynn could be a free agent before we get more clarity on a future CBA agreement, so I really doubt they wait that out. Plus I have a feeling a new agreement will be more player friendly if anything, so locking up our guys now based on existing benchmarks could make a lot of sense. And the financial impact of extensions would be for 2022 & beyond, so not sure why COVID really matters when all signs point to a vaccine fully being implemented prior to a 2022 season. I get Jerry being frugal this year given fan attendance uncertainty, but we truly are fucked if he’s afraid to commit dollars in 2022 & beyond.

I don’t think 7/$100M is going to be nearly enough. I could possibly see 6/$100M with the extra year of free agency being bought out at $25M, but even that might be pushing it. He’s going to want the chance at one last pay day no matter what and I think hitting free agency at 31 rather than 32 is enough of a factor to stick to a five year deal.

The only guy that potentially makes some sense to pursue via trade is Musgrove. Castillo & Gray are going to command packages we can’t afford at this time. After them, we can probably just get what we need via free agency (#4 starter, closer, left-handed bat). At least with Musgrove there is an argument to be made that he’s on the cusp of becoming a damn good #3 starter and is a tier above & beyond guys like Richards & Quintana. Still not sure if I’d want to give up assets for him or simply sign one of those starters, but he’s a guy who might be had for younger prospects that don’t factor into near-term roster decisions. Still, I’m doubtful he’ll come cheap due his very low salary next year and control through 2022.

Take it FWIW, but the foodies seem to believe there is optimism for a Giolito extension: Obviously there is a lot more work to do with the major league roster (Hendriks + Richards + La Stella being my personal dream), but extending Giolito & Lynn is arguably just as important. I’m sticking with my personal prediction of a deal in the 5/$75M range for Lucas with the 5th year being a team option. For the Sox, it buys out two years of free agency for the ace of our pitching staff and strengthens the back-end of a five year contention window. For Lucas, it guarantees a guy with one TJS already under his belt a lot of guaranteed money (dollars well beyond Nola’s current leading extension) and still allows him to hit free agency at 31 years of age. With Katz now in the fold, I’m more confident this is something Lucas will seriously consider. As for Lance, an extension around 2/$40M still feels about right to me. Some may view that as being too rich, but that’s basically the amount of a qualifying offer and there is zero chance we wouldn’t offer the 2020 version of Lynn a QO if he was still eligible. Plus those are pretty similar dollars to what J.A. Happ agreed to for similarly aged seasons back in 2019 and he was coming off a lesser season. And I honestly think that’s a salary he’d agree to given they’d be covering what are more or less his age 35 & 36 seasons.

Agreed. I think Thompson would have to be involved at minimum (despite being a pitcher) plus whoever they view the most favorably of the three guys you mentioned. Even then, there is probably more ceiling with the guys the Padres gave up and I think the Cubs are looking at a legit rebuild and are willing to gamble on prospects that are farther away but with significant upside. Unfortunately, our best positional prospects in this age / development group have lower ceilings in general since a lot of them are corner types. And to your point, it potentially wipe out a wave of talent that I think it is crucial for replenishing the system.

Is this the last move of 2020?

It truly is sad, but hopefully there is a pool in the sky filled with gold coins he can swim in for all eternity.

Oh I agree with what you’re saying here. I was just clarifying the difference between him not wanting to lose money vs. saying he’s in it to make profits. I think he’s perfectly willing to break-even during competitive years, but he’s not going to proactively spend in hopes of accelerating winning.

He spends when there is a high degree of certainty that revenue will offset costs. Look at our payrolls after the 2005 season when attendance was sky high and tell me that isn’t the case. The problem is he doesn’t want to take on any financial risk, so until fans start showing up he won’t spend more than what he’s confident will be covered.

I don’t get who is he building a trade for. Is that supposed to be for Darvish? If so, why is the price ridiculously higher than what the Padres actually paid?