Chicago White Sox

Bait for what?

I’d be shocked if they add both Realmuto and Springer and I think they prioritize the former. Honestly, I’d be shocked if we don’t end up with Springer and hopefully within the next ~32 hours.

I definitely think the Reds would be looking for major league pieces. IMO, they only trade Gray if they get a ready to go but somewhat unproven pitcher along with something else that fills a major league need (RP or SS).

Trading for both Lynn + Gallo is going to require a top prospect(s), there is no way around that.

That doesn’t mean the Rays would view him as a “tolerable third piece”. Every major publication views him as a top 30 prospect and most have always penalized him for lost. You keep trying to develop a narrative that simply isn’t true.

You are nuts bro.

Bummer extension and Kelley’s signing bonus.

Supposed to be a 6 to 8 recovery time, which means he likely misses opening but should be ready sometime before the all-star break assuming no setbacks.

No way they add another starter at this point. Right now they are rocking Fried, Anderson, Soroka, Morton, & Smyly, with Wright, Touki, and others already behind them.

To be honest, that seems like an absolute steal for one year of Morton who is arguably the 2nd best starter on the market in terms of projected 2021 impact.

Whoops, don’t dropped the ball on him. I’ll add him to the list as he should be included.

Probably doubtful, but perhaps they think Nick can handle SS? Personally, I think a package built around Cease & Heuer (plus a decent 3rd piece) would be of more interest to them. It would very much be a Rays like trade, moving an asset at peak value for multiple pieces that can help you wi now and one in particular (Cease) that’s a bit undervalued. Obviously depends on how the Reds view Cease, but given their progressive views on pitching, I could then chomping at the bit to get an arm as talented as Cease who they may feel was poorly handled by Don Cooper and a few mechanical tweaks from breaking through.

?

So right now if you believe Portillo’s and other various rumors, the cost controlled pitchers that seem to be available are: German Marquez | RHP | 26 | 3 yrs + TO | $12.4M AAV | ‘21 ZIPS = 4.4 fWAR Blake Snell | LHP | 28 | 2 yrs + TO | $13.0M AAV | ‘21 ZIPS = 3.3 fWAR Sonny Gray | RHP | 31 | 2 yrs + TO | $10.7M AAV | ‘21 ZIPS = 3.0 fWAR Yu Darvish | RHP | 34 | 3 yrs | $19.7M AAV | ‘21 ZIPS = 3.1 fWAR Joe Musgrove | RHP | 28 | 2 yrs | TBD - Arb | ‘21 ZIPS = 2.9 fWAR Lance Lynn | RHP | 33 | 1 yr | $8.0M AAV | ‘21 ZIPS = 3.0 fWAR In terms of potential acquisition cost, that’s exactly how I’d rank them from most to least expensive. Ignoring those ZIPS projections (which I think are incredibly conservative for everyone but German), I do think Marquez is a tier above the others when it comes to cost due to the fact he’s the youngest pitcher on the list, he’s coming off a very strong 2020 season / could be viewed as an ascending talent, and has an extra year of team control. I also would expect a big value gap between Snell & Gray vs. Darvish due to both age (due to regression / injury risk) and the big difference in contracts. If I were our GM, I’d throw some lines in the Marquez, Snell, & Gray waters, but ultimately I’d be focusing my efforts on Darvish or Lynn due to potential cost. I really struggle with a Darvish valuation because it’s so uncertain what kind of pitcher you are getting. If you’re getting the 2020 version, his contract is an absolute steal and he’s easily the best of the six pitchers available. But if you look at that ZIPS projection, it’s very possible most clubs think last year was an outlier based on their own projection systems even if they are a bit more bullish on him than a 3.1 win forecast. I don’t know what his price would be, but I don’t see him netting a true blue chipper like Vaughn or Kopech and that’s what we should be trying to avoid at this stage of the rebuild. The same applies to Lynn, although I think his cost would be even less given teams generally don’t like overpaying for older pitchers on one year deals even if theoretical surplus value shakes out to be about even. Regardless, I’m looking for a quantity of quality package and trying to hold onto my high-end prospects if at all possible.

Per MLBpipeline, Vaughn is the 13th ranked prospect and Kopech is the 18th. Almost every prospect ranked higher than them are with rebuilding teams or likely off limits. Now, just for transparency, Baseball America has them ranked 26th & 29th while Fangraphs has them ranked 17th & 26th respectively. This would add a few more names to the mix of comparable prospects, but I don’t think it changes the story much. 60 FV prospects are scarce to begin with and in this economic environment major league ready ones are going to be really tough to come by. I just don’t see who all these guys are the the Rays would be able to land.

In this market, there is zero excuse for not bringing in a quality reliever in on a short-term deal.

Which means we should be signing Springer by tomorrow ?

Yeah, I’m with you on that. I’d rather sign Springer and look to add Lynn as part of a quantity trade headlined by Stiever.

If they add Springer, they have enough money to add some pitching. It won’t be Bauer unfortunately, but the reality is Reinsdorf probably won’t let them add Bauer anyways. At least that’s the way I’m operating which is why Springer becomes the next best thing on my list.

That‘a totally fair, but saying they could easily come by two top 50 prospects seems to be a bit of a stretch and then when you put positional qualifiers in place (especially catcher) you are pushing this down to like one or two teams.

I’m not disagreeing, but for who and for what exactly? Tampa Bay is going to want major league ready pieces and those aren’t typically Rays to come by.

I mean, if Colome only goes for 1/$6M then why not? But at typical rates, I’d prioritize other needs first and add a Kela type reliever to the mix.

His contact is awful though and his 97 wRC+ at least should give some cause for concern when it comes to his bat.