Chicago White Sox

Why does it matter if a position player moves from the NL to the AL?

Who thinks 2020 stats are the end all? And Joc posted a 140 wRC+ over the 2018 & 2019 seasons against RHP while Mazara has more or less be league average or slightly above against RHP. These two players aren’t even comparable in terms of production and despite both coming off horrible seasons, I’m going to take the player with an actual track record of success than the one who has consistently underperformed over the course of their career.

I said to sign Yates to a 1/$12.5M role with the opportunity to be our opening day closer.

I don’t know what makes you say that. Dude has proven to be a high-end hitter against RHP and is only 28 years old. Yes, his shitty 2020 season is a concern, but we’re not talking about some mid 30’s free agent at the tail-end of his career.

I do kind of like that idea and he does have an option left, although not sure if he gets paid a major league salary or not if optioned down to AAA.

I don’t follow. Yes, his 2020 season was bad and he showed little signs of progression, but I’m not sure how that changes his ability going forward. He still only has 26 starts to his name and I wouldn’t overreact to a COVID shortened season. Personally, I think he’s some grip / mechanical changes away from taking the leap, although the lack of curveball usage with Cooper as our pitching coach admittedly scares me.

100% agree with this. Dane Dunning put up a 3.99 FIP across his first seven starts in his first season returning from TJS. He should clearly start the season as our #4 starter. Dylan Cease had an ugly 2020 season, but is a former top 30 prospect, has elite fastball velocity, and only has 26 starts to his name. They’ll give him another shot next year and he should slot in as the #5 starter to open the season. Kopech gets two months in Charlotte before taking over for the weakest pitcher in the rotation. That should be the plan and we just need a legit #2 / #3 starter to make it work.

There is zero chance we offer McCann a QO as he would 100% accept it and it would prevent us from filling more important holes.

Don’t they typically announce Tommy John issues pretty quickly?

From my calculations we have around 21 spots more or less accounted for at a total cost of around $97M. Lineup (8): Anderson (SS), Moncada (3B), Grandal (C), Abreu (1B), Jiménez (RF), Vaughn (DH), Robert (CF), Madrigal (2B) Bench (3): Mendick (IF), Engel (OF), Garcia (UT) Rotation (4): Giolito (#1), Keuchel (#3), Dunning (#4), Cease / Kopech (#5) Bullpen (6): Bummer (L), Marshall (R), Heuer (R), Foster (R), Fry (L), Cordero (R) In a normal environment, I’d put a payroll target for us of around $140M. That means we’d have about $43M to fill five holes. Here’s how I’d rank the offseason priorities accordingly: TOR starter Right field High leverage reliever Swingman Backup catcher *Oscar Colas* IMO, Bauer is the one guy who transforms this team, but damn would he eat up the bulk of our budget. My guess is that on a short-term deal he’s looking for at least an AAV of $35M. And at that price, you really couldn’t fill your other holes. If Reinsdorf is willing to push the payroll up to $150M then I’m all-in on Bauer and will find a way to make the rest work. But my assumption is a hard cap of $140M so we would have to go into a different direction. At the moment, that direction would be Stroman. Still on the right side of 30 but coming off injury, he can probably be had for a Dallas Keuchel type contract and would fit our ballpark well. Let’s assume he can be had for something around 3/$54M. Switching to RF, to me Joc Pederson should be the guy we target right from the get go. Coming off a horrible season he should come cheap and only require a one year commitment. Given my expectations that we end up signing Oscar Colas to be the long-term answer, a Joc/Engel platoon is the perfect stop-gap for a year. Hard to predict what kind of salary he’d get, but for now let’s assume something around 1/$9M gets it done. So after those two moves, we’re now down to about $16M to fill our remaining three holes. Without question the next big move is getting one veteran reliever who can anchor a young bullpen. I like the young core we have in place and I think that Burdi & Tyler Johnson will be pushing for long-term roles next year and that Crotchet (if healthy) will factor in at some point once he’s built up some innings in the minors. That being said, the name of the game is depth and I want to start from a position of strength with a legit high leverage arm in the closer role on day one. People may not love this, but I’d go hard after Kirby Yates on a one year deal. He lost his 2020 season due to bone chips, but otherwise I believe the stuff was still elite despite some poor numbers. Offer him the closer role and a 1/$12.5M contract and see if that gets it done. That leaves about $3.5M for a swingman and backup catcher. If it’s not painfully obvious by now, there is no chance McCann is coming back and us being able to fill our other holes. I know it will be unpopular, but I’m going with Collins as my backup catcher to start the 2021 season and letting Grandal a good 120+ games behind the plate next year. That leaves about $3M for a swingman and Carlos Rodon & Reynaldo Lopez are both options theoretically, but I think I’m ready to move on from them. With that said, not sure I’m able to identify a perfect option at this time. A ton of players will likely be non-tendered this offseason, so some interesting options could be in play at a $3M price point. If healthy, a guy like Collin McHugh could make some sense, but ideally it would be someone younger with a little less bust potential. TLDR - If Bauer is out of our budget, give me Stroman, Pederson, Yates, and the best possible swing-man possible for $3M. Add Oscar Colas as an amateur signing & eventual RF successor and call it an offseason. Kopech starts the year in AAA (to regain extra year of team control) and eventually bumps Cease or Dunning out of the rotation. Burdi, Johnson, & Crotchet (if healthy) eventually come up as bullpen reinforcements. All minor league capital is retained and saved for mid-season additions if necessary. May not be the sexiest offseason, but $43M goes fast and it fills each major hole with a high end talent even if they each come with some question marks.

Why in the world would we commit $17M/$18M a year for a 2 win RF? That would be a horrible use of resources.

FIFY

I really don’t think this will happen. Even if they go cheap offseason, they will add one decent starting pitcher.

My point was he’s not Gio Gonzalez and will get paid much higher than typical swingman rates, which means he’s a luxury we can not afford if we also add a TOR starter and decent RF.

Here are some SPs who got a $10M AAV or close to one the past two offseasons: Tanner Roark: 2/$24M ($12M) Matt Harvey: 1/$11M ($11M) Michael Pineda: 2/$20M ($10M) Rick Porcello: 1/$10M ($10M) Annibal Sanchez: 2/$19M ($9.5M) Kyle Gibson: 3/$28M ($9.3M) Julio Teheran: 1/$9M ($9M) Trevor Cahill: 1/$9M ($9M) You honestly think that in a normal economic environment a left-handed starter who is only one year away from a 3.5 fWAR season would be unable to land a 1/$10M deal?

Welcome back peavy44! You have been missed!

Reinsdorf is 84 and doesn’t have 30 years of ownership ahead of him. Do actually think he’d rather go to his grave making more money for his peers than winning a World Series? Come on man, you’re better than this!

How much of our revenue comes from fan attendance? And unlike other teams, we don’t have to finance any stadium costs when it’s not being used. That’s a huge benefit for us vs. a lot of clubs.

I think Kopech only goes if it’s a deal for someone like DeGromm. But given the size of his contract, I’d rather just sign Baeur and keep Kopech for the back of the rotation.

Remember taking on Rios’ contract and to a lesser extent Peavy’s?

I could definitely see us taking on contracts from teams looking to offload salary.

Quintana is getting a $10M+ per year deal, so I don’t think it’s realistic to expect him in addition to a high-end starter.

Agree. And there should be ways to add a RF on the cheap that can platoon with Engel and give you league average production. Adding the best starter possible needs to be the priority when it comes to our resources.

Agree

Fully agree with this. I just don’t believe Quintana is plan A unless they plan to pursue a big-time RF like Springer and I don’t see that happening.