Chicago White Sox

I think you guys have elevated these prospects to levels above their true worth. If you were to exclude your top five, I think Joey Ortiz is the only one who would be in our top five. Norby & Povich in particular are so overrated by you guys it’s not even funny. And the bulk of your fans don’t have any sense of expected bust rates for this next tier of prospects…which is incredibly high and makes them much less valuable than you think.

I mean, a pitcher with multiple red flags just got the highest contact in baseball history for a pitcher based on theoretical ceiling alone.

Of course there are. A drop in fastball velocity and a change in his slider shape are causes for concern. But I also believe he dealt with some mechanical issues last year and I have followed him to know his work ethic & desire to be great is second to none. I fully expect him to be significantly better in 2024 but there are no guarantees obviously. But very few pitchers in baseball provide the mix of floor and ceiling that he does and that will likely result in an acquisition cost well above what his 2023 results would suggest.

I can because the math isn’t within a margin of error of making any sense. And very rarely do I not caveat my points with probably or likely to highlight what is my opinion, even if I feel very confidently about something.

Teams aren’t stupid and know what a s%*# show the squad was last year. And they can go on Statcast and see Dylan Cease was hurt more by a s%*# defense than almost any other SP (which ERA+ doesn’t account for). They will pay for expected go-forward performance and not the prior season’s results. And come on with this playoff experience bullshit…you know the sample size isn’t material enough to draw any conclusions from for any player. Having said that, teams typically want SPs with plus stuff who can actually K opponents. I have literally seen you make this very point at the Hangout, which is why you are one of the biggest proponents for him over there.

I think this needs to be said and said very explicitly. Cease wasn’t great in 2023 while he was elite in 2022. We all know this. In a normal market, he’d probably be worth somewhere right in the middle (think #2 starter value). However, this is not a normal market. The demand for high-end SP is out-of-fucking-control and the supply just isn’t there. Teams are desperate and that’s resulting in a massive premium for the few quality arms available in free agency and trade. My guess is that most GMs see Dylan Cease as an extremely durable SP with elite stuff who can likely be fixed with minimal coaching & adjustments. Again, in a normal market you’d ideally pay the price of a #2 starter (which assumes some projection) and hope you end up with ace production given there are no guarantees. Unfortunately in this market, teams will likely have to include a substantial amount of the expected improvement into the purchase price. I’m not suggesting you will get Cy Young type value in return, but it’s clear by now teams won’t be able to use 2023 to get Cease on a discount.

No because that’s like trading $60 for $10. Trading Cease for Mayo would be like trading $60 for $40, so would still need more to be even.

I guess that feels about right then

Is he really that young? I think he said his kid is going to college next year, I’d imagine he is older than he looks.

You think he’d get less than Montgomery? I think 7/$175M+ is far more likely.

I meant the Mariners…the Orioles’ dream of Miller or Woo for Santander & Urias may have hit a snag

I know teams aren’t afraid to make make major commitments nowadays, but those massive contracts are usually limited to truly elite players where they should be very good with some level of drop-off. I’d have nightmares being married to Snell & Montgomery for the next seven years at huge AAVs.

Check that…I bet they’d make DeSclafani available. He’d fit in perfectly with Kremer, Means, Irvin, & Wells.

Robbie Ray to the Giants…doubt they are trading more pitching.

And your org has other guys who could slot into all these spots. You aren’t without options if you trade Mayo. As such, this becomes a simply valuation debate and it doesn’t seem you’re willing to throw an actual number or range on him, just saying it’s more than Cease or that value doesn’t really matter since “Elias likes him”. I’d put a ~$60M projected surplus value on Cease right now. Do you think the best middle ground forecast for Mayo is above that?

I think he’s simply saying he heard recently that the Yankees were considering a major push for Cease, but not suggesting they have moved away from that.

Oh f*** yeah! And makes total sense.

And short of injury comes with a highly valuable compensation pick at the end (which is even more valuable for the Orioles given where it would slot).

It’s 100% why they keep him. But let’s not pretend money doesn’t matter to you guys…$12M on Bieber is $12M you can’t spend later without moving other stuff. Was literally watching Moneyball two nights ago and it was the scene where Beane has to beg the owner for like $250k so he can add a reliever at the trade deadline. Your ownership isn’t that pathetic, but clearly Angelos Junior is using your franchise as a source of income and isn’t going to go hog wild with spending mid-season.

You keeping saying Elias won’t trade Mayo. Since Elias has never come out and said this publicly, I am asking for an objective reason for why Mayo would be an untouchable for Cease. A bunch of qualitative talking points about talent, draft position, and character don’t support that statement. And sure, he may have a 4 win ceiling, but he also has a replacement level floor. What is the expected bust rate on a prospect like Mayo historically? What is a good 50th percentile projection for him over his control period? What is he intrinsically worth to the Orioles…that’s what I’m asking.

First off, it’s doubtful the Guardians just give him away. But more importantly, you’d be committing $12M in payroll to him and that could put your trust fund owner on the brink financially.

Nothing more productive in life than hopping on a message board to call out others for being unproductive

But why? Show me your math on how you got to this conclusion. What is the projected surplus value of Mayo vs. the projected surplus value of Cease?

Fully agree. Can’t go with two guys with 1B/DH risk.

What’s the biggest ever? The Eric Chavez thread or was it Machado?