Chicago White Sox

Balta believes he’s worth one backend top 100 prospect (50 FV guy) and some filler…maybe.

I think it’s worth pointing out that the majority of Orioles fans would do a Cowser + Ortiz package for Cease. This may not fully meet our fandom’s desires, but it does represent one consensus top 50 prospect (most would have him as a 55 FV guy) and one consensus top 100 prospect (50 FV guy). And while a bunch of message board posters aren’t ultimately agreeing to a trade, it does suggest an acknowledgement of value that Cease has which Balta & Aly refuse to accept. Fans almost always overrate their prospects is the key point, which is a great point because it means a savage OF + infield prospect + lesser 3rd piece framework is likely possible, but will require both sides to come to a compromise. My guess is Getz is still asking for four pieces (and legit ones) while Elias is reluctant to give up a SP prospect at this time. Hopefully push comes to shove at some point and Covich is agreed upon as a third piece. A Cease to Baltimore trade just makes too much sense for both sides.

Penix > Fields

Now arrested

I’m not comfortable at all waiting to the deadline. If all offers are crap, then you really have no choice, but waiting on perfection is a really bad idea IMO.

Choose your fighter! Player A: 3.8 fWAR 3.82 xERA 2nd in Stuff+ ~31% slider usage 36.4% Whiff % on slider 27th percentile HH % 4th in AL Cy Young votes Best season in entire career Guaranteed TOR starter Player B: 3.7 fWAR 4.07 xERA 5th in Stuff+ ~39% slider usage 43.3% Whiff % on slider 32nd percentile HH % No Cy Young votes received Worst season since 2020 Javy Vasquez esque starter

Pessimismus aeternus regnat

He just started a throwing program and the goal is for him to be fully healthy by the start of the season

Based on an old Fangraphs assessment, a low end 50 FV prospect is probably worth about $20M.

Him landing with the Angels would be amazing

It’s wild how badly the Yankees & Red Sox need more SP. Need Snell & Montgomery to find homes outside the AL East.

Looks like Getz will need to put the AL East teams against one another with the Braves & Reds likely out now.

Wow wow wow

I’d imagine they’d want to give Bannister a shot at unlocking Kopech as a starter before moving him back to the bullpen.

Remilard for sure. No idea why he’s still around, but can’t carry all these IFs. Realistically we should try to trade Perez if we believe Stassi is going to make the major league roster. Lee and Hackenberg should get the starts in AAA at this point IMO and that sort of leaves Perez as the odd man out even if he clears waivers.

That’s a big contract all things considered.

Where did Kopech go?

That comment wasn’t directed at Orioles fans, but the broader baseball community. Given the lack of AL teams that are actually competing and the fact the Orioles are coming off 101 wins, I think there is a general belief the Orioles are all but promised a playoff spot next year (I have even seen Sox fans here say this). I just don’t think that’s the case if the Yankees return to form and in 2022 they had the second highest run differential in baseball.

The Hangout loves themselves some Povich. I figured he must of had Randy Johnson like stuff before I read Tony’s scouting report on him based on the way many of the posters over there were clutching on him (not you or Frobby).

You’re talking about certainty…the only thing certain about Ortiz is his glove (hence him having an all glove floor). There are no guarantees with his bat and I simply don’t buy him having this alleged elite bat speed when no other source has ever claimed this (to my knowledge at least). BA’s latest report calls his power “fringy” while also highlighting his strength gains and stronger offensive production last year. That doesn’t mean Ortiz won’t be a solid offensive player, but I’m certainly not going to bank on it happening. And as for the other players in question, I’ve read the scouting reports from BA, BP, MLB, Fangraphs, and Tony over at OH (who does a great job). I’ve looked at their numbers extensively. I really like Beavers as a prospect and would love to have him in a Cease deal, but he’s got tremendous bust potential like most prospects of his stature. And Povich is literally just a dude. I don’t necessarily prescribe to the TINSTAAPP theory, but for me to buy into a pitching prospect I either need to see elite stuff or strong results and he doesn’t check either box. Again, he’s a perfectly fine prospect, but 45 FV pitching prospects aren’t worth all that much. Also, not sure what 17 year old prospects you think we’re comparing these guys to either. We all understand the basic concept that results in the upper minors correlates better with major league success.

You’re naming arms that we have no reason to believe are available. That’s not to say there aren’t other options out there than Cease, but I see your fans at the Hangout clinging to hope of a Framber trade and that isn’t likely happening. You guys seem to think you have the leverage here because you have the best farm system, but we aren’t talking about a Robert trade where only one or two teams have the prospect currency to make a deal happen without including major league players. Many teams can afford Cease. The Sox simply need to come away with one 55 FV or higher prospect to headline the trade. The rest of the pieces can be solved in a variety of ways with trade-odds between quantity and quality. And honestly, as our most astute prospect followers here have called out (@bmags for example), oftentimes the best secondary pieces aren’t the back end top 100 guys that people are aware of but the up & coming prospects with some helium behind them. Again, lots of way to get a deal done and I’m confident there are many better centerpieces than old man Ortiz.

I’m sorry, but Beavers & Povich are far from sure things. Ortiz is a high floor prospect, but a 26 year old all glove SS doesn’t really move the needle for us. It’s really not the package you guys think it is.

We mean competition for a playoff spot. And that package is not way better than what the Yankees can offer.

How are they not competition?

The Yankees being heavily involved is great news. Honestly, if I were an Orioles fan I’d be a sweating a little. I know people think they are guaranteed a playoff spot because they won 101 games last year, but a rejuvenated Yankees could put that at risk. Last year there were only seven AL teams with positive run differentials, but the lowest of those was at +75 vs. the Orioles’ +129. All of them but the Mariners untimely made the playoffs. Obviously the Yankees would need to make some major strides to get back in the thick of things but Soto, a couple more big additions like Cease, and some better health could quickly do that for them. And with four AL East teams actually competing for playoff spots and only two or three realistically up for grabs, it’s very possible the Orioles could be the odd man out if they don’t make any major additions and/or experience any injury bad luck or regression.