Chicago White Sox

They would happily pay Cease $20M or so…whether they’ll give up the prospects is the question.

Rumor is Hahn was asking for Holiday up until the very end, so Hahn wasn’t overly serious until it was too late.

A couple nuggets on Cease in Rosenthal’s latest article this morning:

Yes, this would be preferable, but we’re Sox fans and can’t help reliving our past miseries on the daily.

Two nice things about Grissom are he’s young (turns 23 in Jan) and has already displayed some success in the majors. While he would lack the “savage” ceiling of Kjerstad or Busch and is not left-handed, he could easily be our third best hitter next year behind Robert & Eloy. Just got to be sure you can iron out his defensive flaws if you make him a central piece to a Cease trade.

Bump…can’t let this fall to the 4th page

Nothing personal against the OP, but can we please limit LaRussa threads to one a day.

Where is the utility player stuff coming from? I personally think the bat plays as an everyday guy in the infield, but it just comes down to his defense. If he can’t get better with the glove at 2B, he probably ends up being a super utility guy who is rotated around several spots including LF. Right now, I don’t see enough power to be an everyday LF, although he likely has more than our Benintendi…lol.

I’d love to see people rank these three trade proposals: Orioles: Kjerstad, Ortiz, & Horvath Dodgers: Busch, Sheehan, & Pages Braves: AJ S-S, Waldrep, & Grissom Personally, I’d rank them in the listed order, but all three are deals I’d be willing to accept (ideally with some lesser 4th piece included). Meanwhile, BBTV would rank the Dodgers package as the highest ($66M in SV), followed by the Braves package ($56M), and then the Orioles in a distant third ($32M). BBTV has Kjerstad at only $16M in value as I’d personally rank him as a low-end 55 FV guy and put his expected value closer to $40M. Regardless, it’s a good reminder that BBTV is a fun tool, but its player valuations are highly suspect and never assume a trade will or will not work based on what it spits out.

@baseball_gal_aly - I see you lurking! Let’s hear your pessimistic Cease take after the Glasnow trade.

Also, you know you have a problem when it’s 3am and all you can think about is Dylan Cease trade packages.

The SP market really heated up today as predicted. With Tyler Glasnow off the board, these are the SP with TOR potential available: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (9/$225) Blake Snell (7/$200M) Jordan Montgomery (6/$150M) Dylan Cease (2/$20M) For teams with less means or willingness to take on long-term risk, middle of the rotation starters available include: Shota Imanaga (5/$85M) Lucas Giolito (2/$44M) Marcus Stroman (2/$44M) Michael Wacha (3/$36M) Shane Bieber (1/$12M) After that you’re looking at a mix of lower ceiling guys, wild cards, scrap heap signings, and players with off the field baggage. For instance, Mike Clevinger is the top pitcher on both MLBTR & Fangraphs’ top FA lists not mentioned above. Things worth pointing out. That contract projection for Yamamoto is likely light and 10/$300M is very possible. Snell greatly outproduced his peripherals last year and has only made 28+ starts once in the past five years. Montgomery has performed well in recent years but with below average stuff and K rate. The MOR guys all have warts hence why their prices are expected to be much lower. Given the amount of teams desperate for quality SP, it’s not hard to see why a SP like Cease who ranks 1st in starts made, 4th in K rate, 5th in Stuff+, and 8th in fWAR from 2021 to 2023 would be incredibly high demand. Two points of reference on Dylan’s potential value. Free agent wise, his best comp would be Aaron Nola, who got a 7/$175M deal in free agency. Yes, Nola has the lengthier track record, but both are coming off somewhat similar 2023 seasons after monster 2022 seasons. Regardless, I think this would be a fair expectation for Cease. However, for surplus valuation purposes, on a two year deal in this market, I think he’d get $75M to $80M. Given projected earnings of $20M to $25M over the next two seasons, we’re talking about $50M to $60M in expected surplus value. Trade wise, Glasnow is the best comp and he just went for what I’d consider a 50 FV pitching prospect plus a lesser OF prospect. Based on an old Fangraphs assessment of prospect value, a 50 FV pitching prospect would be expected to provide roughly $20 in value over the life of their control period. Looking at Glasnow, I think an optimistic projection would be ~4 wins next year, which would put his expected surplus value at ~$15M. However, Glasnow has truly elite stuff and offers a team like the Dodgers even more value because they can more easily manage his innings until the playoffs. Add in the extension, and you can see why he commanded the package that he did. So what does this mean for a potential Cease trade? Given his stuff, durability, control, & cost, I would expect him to be valued at the higher end of the range or ~$60M in expected surplus value. Conceptually, I believe that means we should expect one 55 FV prospect, one 50 FV prospect, and one 45 FV prospect or alternatively three 50 FV type prospects of varying degrees. Packages I could see based on this analysis include: Orioles: Kjerstad, Ortiz, & Horvath Dodgers: Busch, Sheehan, & Pages Braves: AJ S-S, Waldrep, & Grissom A fourth lesser prospect would be possible in each trade, but I ultimately expect three potentially impactful pieces coming back regardless of trade partner with the quality of the third piece dictated by the headliner. TLDR - Cease should get us an absolute haul and it’s only a matter of time.

I still don’t get what your list represents.

How much did you expect them to get for one year of Glasnow at $25M with his track record of health? Throw in the dumping of Margot and this is a great deal for the Rays.

?

That could be true too, but I think the payroll cuts are pretty obvious by now.

Yes, and we should have the tie-breaker in Katz if the money was the same. Unfortunately, it’s painfully obvious that Reinsdorf is slashing payroll well beyond even our own expectations (and mine were pretty large).

Oh I’m sure you’re right, but I was trying to be consistent with how I assume BBTV is valuing prospects

They need multiple starters. The question is can they afford to spend $55M on him and Yamamoto, or do they need to go cheaper for the second starter.

Which means they will pair it with a guy that can soak up innings most likely. If Glasnow makes sense for any team, it’s as a potential playoff threat for the Dodgers.

SP is starting to move! Glasnow, Flaherty, & Mahle all off the board in a single day.

Nope, 1/$14M

It’s official now

I’m guessing he gets two years and I don’t see us doing that for him.