Chicago White Sox

I think you’re missing some context here. I’ve pointed out in here & perhaps other threads that the Phillies front office is said to be conservative. The Phillies were always going to amongst the favorites for the whales, but it wasn’t until their owner came out and said “we’re going to spend some stupid money” that they became the big bad wolf. The reason I believe this to be promising (at least for Harper) is the Phillies have positioned they won’t be topped (including for Corbin) and then proceeded to be topped. As eager as their owner may be to spend, I truly don’t believe he’s going to pull a Tom Hicks and bid against himself to ensure they have the biggest offer. And if it’s true the front office is putting some guardrails in place, then that’s a win for us IMO.

The Phillies capped themselves at five years. How would that extra year prevent them from adding Harper or Machado? They decided in this case they have their limits and now that is confirmed.

Lol...Bruce Lavine is somehow breaking there is no opt-out in the deal.

I expect us to be heavily involved in both of these guys as well.

There have been rumors that the Phillies front office is fairly conservative and isn’t big on spending huge dollars or going too many years with players. If this is evidence of that, our chances to land a whale are much better than we originally thought. That remains to be seen, but this gives me a little more optimism.

My optimism will never fade, that’s for sure!

Wow, we finally agree on something!

Because it shows they have their limits.

God bless you fathom, you could a negative in winning the lottery.

100% agree.

I don’t think they can afford both, especially after their catcher moves.

I said Yankees or Nationals a few days ago in a different thread. This is great news and shows the Phillies have their limits.

With who?

What happens if another team has this same stance?

Thanks. I personally feel pretty strongly about Yoan being a 4 win player next year and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s even better than that. I truly believe he was rushed and a guy like him, who was able to succeed in the minors on talent alone, needed to experience failure at the major league in order to make the right adjustments. There’s no denying his physical abilities, but I’m generally impressed by his work ethic, which is evident by him going to Arizona this offseason and working with Renteria & Steverson on his hitting. As for Corbin, I shaved over a full point off his 2017 WAR. For Machado, I don’t believe using career averages for a guy just hitting his prime and believe he could be a 7 win player next year at 3B, but decided to shave off a point. For Eloy, I simply took Steamer’s projection and bumped it up slightly to account for a quicker promotion and the general conservatism it has for young players. With Rodon it all comes down to health and my entire premise is based on relatively good health for the team. If he makes 30 starts next year, he should easily be a 3 win pitcher IMO with the upside for more. And that’s a key point here. I personally think Lopez could be a 4 win pitcher next year. I agree that Anderson could be a 3 win player with some moderate improvement with the bat along with his 2nd half defense showing up for the full season. People keep looking at the downside, but I’d argue there is still potential upside in my projections and those can potentially cover for areas of underperformance.

My projections were never meant to be a 50/50 outcome. They lean on the side of optimism, but the point of the exercise (which you missed) was the six young guys do not all need to become “5 WAR stars” for us to be competitive like you suggested. If you want to shave off a few points for the AAA reinforcements that’s fine, but that’s not going to be worth five wins unless we experience significant injuries and my plan always assumed reasonably good health. So let’s call it a 40 fWAR team. I think that makes us a decent enough threat to the Indians.

The Cubs have zero chance at Harper unless they can pawn Heyward on Dipoto. I still don’t see how the Yankees are a fit for Bryce. As for the Phillies, while their owner is eager to spend, their front office is rumored to be a bit nervous at the theoretical prices for the whales. I still think Philly will land one of these guys, but the owner will have to ignore the wishes of his front to pull an A-Rod/Rangers.

I think you’re giving Philly too much credit. Outside of money, they aren’t the most attractive of destinations. Heyman’s recent article mentioned Harper not being thrilled with the idea of living in Philadelphia. The Yankees are the real threat if they want to be as every big free agent apparently loves NYC and grew up a Yankees fan.

We’ll have to agree to disagree on the projections for the young guys. I’ll admit I have some cause for concern with Rodon, but if we don’t believe he’ll put up 3 WAR next year then he should be traded for whatever we can get for him right now. That being said, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt now that he’s a full year removed from shoulder surgery.

Again, I fully agree, although I’d rather not trade for a CF with Robert, Basabe, etc. a year or two out. But maybe we can move Yolmer for his OF equivalent.

I 100% agree but Balta told me I was at $150M and I didn’t have the energy to check the math. Additionally, I did not feel compelled to put Moncada in CF since no one believes that’s a possibility.

I appreciate your effort here, but I’ll need to lay out my own projections because I’m still not fully following: 1B: Abreu - 2.5 2B: Moncada - 4.0 SS: Anderson - 2.5 3B: Machado - 6.0 LF: Jimenez - 3.5 CF: Engel - 0.5 RF: McCutchen - 2.5 DH: Palka - 1.0 CA: Castillo - 2.0 Bench - 1.0 Subtotal = 25.5 #1: Corbin - 5.0 #2: Rodon - 3.0 #3: Lopez - 3.0 #4: Pomeranz - 1.5 #5: Giolito - 1.0 Bullpen - 4.0 Sub-total = 17.5 That’s a projected total of 43 fWAR. That makes us dangerous enough to compete with Cleveland IMO assuming some improvement from our young guys. Not one of them has to be a “5 WAR star” next year like your post suggested.

Where are the 10 fWAR gap & $115M payroll coming from? I’m going to need you to provide me with a walk. But for the hell of it, I’ll say Corbin, Pomeranz, & Allen with Yolmer moved to clear some salary.

They also didn’t spend significantly in free agency.

Which is why we were using fWAR in our theoretical and not W-L record? Now you’re just arguing with yourself.