Chicago White Sox

Donaldson for sure. Steamer still thinks he’s a 5 WAR player. Getting him for 2/$40M could be an absolute steal IMO.

Where are you getting this +55 WAR figure from for 2018?

Us. JFS us...lol.

It did not take a $60M overpayment, the Rangers simply negotiated against themselves. You are absolutely nuts if you honestly think it would take $100 to $125M above the next offer to land one of these guys. Like do you even think through what you say anymore??

I refuse to accept that. If we don’t land a whale today, there may be no whale to land tomorrow. It’s really that simple. And knowing that fact and having a top farm system & practically zero payroll commitments, there is really no excuse not to make a baller offer to both these guys and make it as hard as possible for them to say no.

I’m going to add this right now, but signing one of Harper & Machado should be viewed as a must. I get there is truth to the “we can’t force these guys to sign with us” idea, but there are offers that can be made that would be very difficult to turn down. I really truly hope our front office & ownership will look to be aggressive with these guys from the get-go. Don’t slow play shit and let a team like the Yankees go “fuck it, I’ll play ball at that price”. We should come out to Bryce with a 10/$400M offer and say there it is bro. Let Boras know we’ll be making a similar offer to Machado in a couple weeks and if he bites then we are the fuck out. If this shit ain’t wrapped up by the Winter Meetings, we better be all-in on Machado by that point.

I doubt that’s nearly enough. They’ll definitely want one blue chipper to headline any deal.

Collins is ranked the 67th best prospect in baseball as a 1B by Fangraphs. They certainly believe his offensive game will provide enough value to be a major league 1B despite a lackluster hit tool. I really think you’re underestimating just how elite his batter’s eye is and how real his power is. And don’t ignore the fact that minor league catchers spend so much time on the defensive side of things that their bats can often lag behind a bit.

It doesn’t seem unreasonable per se, but still not something we should do. Collins still has an elite batters eye & 70 grade raw power. Even if he doesn’t pan out at catcher, his offensive seems like it should play at 1B/DH with the juiced ball. And Dunning is one of the higher floor pitching prospects in the game, health permitting. Just doesn’t make sense for us to move them for a guy under control for two years.

Here’s a nice little write-up on Kikuchi: http://dodgersdigest.com/2018/11/06/scouting-report-yusei-kikuchi/ As for a potential contract, it’s really hard to gauge. MLBTraderumors has him getting 6/$42M + an $8M release fee, while FG’s crowdsourcing project has him at 4/$52M + a ~$10M fee. I think FG is probably closer to reality but that’s just me speculating.

Paxton really doesn’t make any sense for us. Neither does Corbin. I’d rather just go after Kikuchi. He’s exactly the type of arm we should be rolling the dice on given our financial situation.

He flashed more HR power last year, but his ISO only improved by 25 points (so not materially better). Meanwhile his K rate jumped by 6.5 points & his BABIP dropped by 120 points. He’s a better hitter than he showed last year, but the reality is 2017 was a mirage. And when you factor in his inability to stay healthy, he’s a potentially decent starting RF who will struggle to play a full season. There isn’t a lot of value in that unfortunately.

I think they would be better informed because you’re an incredibly smart guy who follows the team on a daily basis. I’m all for advanced analytics, but pyoung players it really requires a bigger emphasis on scouting

That’s not what I’m doing though. I’m acknowledging the flaws of projection systems, which is forecasting young players. Unfortunately Steamer doesn’t know how to account for the concept that “development isn’t linear”. It also doesn’t know how to account for guys coming off shoulder surgeries. Let me ask you this. What would your realistic forecasts be for Moncada, Anderson, Rodon, Lopez, & Giolito next year? Not looking for anything fancy here, just rough estimates on what kind of WAR you’d expect to see from them.

I’m not worried about Robert. He’s still just 21 years and has the same crazy tools that we were excited about in the first place. He most definitely need to stay healthy in 2019, but if he does I’m confident the results will be positive.

Luis Robert has 140 plate appearances in High A. Your theory was since Adam Engel was not ready (despite over a thousand PA’s above that level) and given the the major league CF job that we should hand Luis the job next season. That’s the definition of a rush job and makes no sense. Your examples didn’t completely skip the two upper levels of the minors.

Is that what his post was asking? Seems like he was simply calling anyone who thinks the Sox might be serious about Harper / Machado stupid Your skeptism is fair, but our past actions don’t dictate those of tomorrow. There are many reasons to believe now may be different, with our known efforts to trade for Machado last offseason to be the strongest of evidence. By all means remain skeptical if you must, but please don’t mock those of us who are optimists like some posters are doing.

Is this you doing a Caulfield impression, because you’re all over the place. Like what in the word are you talking about here.

Because Robert is a legit prospect and shouldn’t be rushed?

I think the big takeaway from this not to overreact to rough patches or even seasons with high end prospects. Too many people here panicked on Robert because he couldn’t stay healthy and didn’t show much power. We still don’t know for certain what he is, but surely this AFL reinforces what we know he’s capable of. The tools are beyond elite and we’re actually seeing them put to use for the first time. It’s the same reason people shouldn’t write-off guys like Hansen & Sheets after disappointing 2018 seasons.

Are Steamer not mean projections? If they are, why are we assuming any variance would be underperformance? Certaintly some guys will perform much different than their projection, but there should also be positive outcomes in that respect. If you’re referring to the five young guys, I agree those aren’t necessarily mean projections but they’re not crazy by any means. Those kids should all get better next year and none of those projections come close to peak level upside. To me, they reflect realistic progressions with their development. Again, nothing is foolproof. All those young guys could stagnate or bust. There could be other unforeseen regressions. Regardless, I think if you can add Harper (the biggest if) and some other pieces, having a competitive team next year is in the realm of possibility and not a “every single thing must go right” type scenario.

You keep saying this, but no one is actually suggesting a “1%” outcome for every player is required for us to be competitive next year. Let’s try to be objective here. The Sox need to add about 20 WAR to be a contender in 2019. That’s a huge number, but add Harper and the gap is suddenly 15. Adding Donaldson shrinks it to 12. Adding Cruz & Happs shrinks it to 8.5. And those aren’t 1% outcomes, but simply using what Steamer is projecting for veteran players and netting against our prior year production. Then you got a future stud in Eloy Jimenez. I find projection systems to regularly under project young players and yet Steamer has him at 2.6 WAR next year. Let’s just call it 3 WAR since we know Eloy will be up ASAP based on Hahn’s recent comments. That cuts the gap to 5.5 WAR. On top of these additions, we also have quite a few talented players that should be better next year, the question with them is simply how much. Moncada, Anderson, Rodon, Lopez, & Giolito are all 25 year old and former top 40 prospects. These guys are still developing and could take massive leaps. Last year they combined for 6.5 WAR. Could these guys account for 12 WAR next year? I don’t think a crazy expectation and nowhere near a 1% outcome. Moncada at 4, Rodon & Lopez at 3, and Anderson at 2 gets us there. That would require no improvement from Giolito, who is without question the biggest wild card in the group. Does that really seem that crazy to you? Mix and match as you please, that’s beauty of having a young developing core. At the end of the day, if we can land a whale and a bunch of secondary pieces, we should be able put together a competitive team without “everything going right for every single guy”. That doesn’t mean it’s foolproof, but it’s not nearly as daunting as you keep suggesting.

I truly believe Bryce is the one guy that rule wouldn’t apply to. He’d be our modern day Frank Thomas and actually drive fan interest.

Wouldn’t adding one of the biggest superstars help is do just that?

I mean it sounds like they are. Doesn’t mean would / should give you their best player to free up money.