Chicago White Sox

What young players are you referring to? Most of the recent dialogue in this thread has centered around starting pitching and even Hahn has acknowledged this is a huge area of need in the near-term.

See, I actually think Lance Lynn could be a nice value signing because of how the market is viewing mid rotation starters. Last year very few starters got more than two year deals and several were massive busts (Cobb & Chatwood). I fully expect that trend to continue this offseason with Lynn potentially being a victim of that line of thinking. And that would be great for us IMO. Lynn was a consistent 3 WAR pitched prior to his TJS. He struggled in his first year back in 2017 and with the Twins last year, but was excellent with Yankees and had very solid peripherals overall. And on top of that his velocity was back and as good as ever. He’s looking much like the 3 WAR starter he was for the majority’s of his career. If we can land him for say 2/$35M, that’s a contract I will happily roll the dice on because there is real potential for surplus value and limited long-term risk.

But is anyone actually saying the Bears should make the playoffs this year? I think even the most optimistic fans have said Mitch would have to take big step forward and they’d have to have some good luck. IIRC, your intial take was this was a six win team. Clearly they are a better team than that and that’s all that people are really arguing.

This team is not mediocre. The defense is still top notch IMO despite the last couple games and the offense has a ton of interesting weapons. There is a lot to be optimistic about here. The problem is you can’t accept that Mitch is a work in progress and that he will have mediocre performances like today. If/when it clicks, this team will have the potential to be extremely dangerous. Whether that happens this season or not remains to be seen, but I’m certainly glad the necessary pieces are already in place in the event he does take that next step. There was absolutely nothing fun about last year no matter how you want to spin it.

FYI...Rodon is under control for three more seasons.

You must not have paid much attention to how last year went. Let’s recap for fun. Rodon only made 20 starts and put up a 4.95 FIP due an ugly K rate. He’s the ace of the staff heading into next season. Our current #2 starter would be Lopez and he’s coming off a 4.63 FIP but at least pitched a full season. He did show some flashes last year and I’m actually optimistic about him long-term, but he still has a long way to go with his change & curveball to be anything more than a mid-rotation starter. That leaves good ole Giolito and his MLB worst 5.56 FIP for qualified starters. While there were a few moments where you could squint and see shades of the former top prospect, his season overall was an absolute disaster. There is a non-zero chance that none of these guys will be in our 2020 rotation. Beyond the “ Big Three” we’re counting on this year, you got Kopech who is coming off TJS and Burdi’s recovery to date doesn’t inspire full confidence that Michael will be ready to go opening day 2020. You got Dunning coming off a mysterious elbow injury. You got Hansen who has gone ass backwards with his command & mechanics. That leaves Cease as the only other guy who might ready in the near-term with TOR upside. And he’s a guy who just went over a 100 innings for the first time in his career. Right now, there a ton of question marks with this group. So in conclusion, last year was a complete mess on the pitching side of things and if it taught me one thing it’s that you can never have enough pitching. I don’t view Lance Lynn (or someone similar) on a two year deal being a “space eating contract”. I view that pitcher as a stabilizing veteran that this staff desperately needs. And if we have to eat $15M in 2020 because so many things have gone right with the young kids (again highly unlikely) that’s a small price to pay given our current financial flexibility.

In that unlikely scenario, I would trade the $15M/year starter to free up a spot. But realistically speaking, I don’t envision both Giolito & Rodon here to start the 2020 season. Both guys are huge question marks at the moment for me (for different reasons). And either way, I think there is value in having a veteran lead a young staff. Again, it all depends on the contract. The starting pitching market actually has some depth this year and we might be able to find some value there. I would not overpay substantially for stability & veteran leadership, but I’m prepared to go multi-year for the right guy at the right price.

Ok, this better explains your point of view than the other posts I responded to. And I agree for the most part, although I think we’ll need to add one veteran to a two year deal. As much as I want to dream of a 2020 rotation of the five guys you mentioned, there will likely be attrition. Adding someone like Lynn on a two year deal provides stability in the event someone goes down with injury or doesn’t take that next step and allows to us look into trading Rodon if we decide that’s a path worth exploring. So hypothetically speaking, I’d love to add someone like Lynn on a two year deal and someone like Pomeranz on a one year deal. Those types of contracts will not prevent us from making room for our actual prospects when the time is right and would provide a nice mix of upside & stability. I don’t want to waste two rotation spots on guys like Shields & MiGo who do nothing but eat innings and that might require us to go multi-year to fill at least one of the spots.

How does signing a free agent pitcher impact Giolito’s shot this year? Last I saw we have two holes in the rotation and another starter who has never managed to stay healthy an entire season.

If Giolito doesn’t take a significant step forward in 2019, then he won’t be in the rotation come 2020. That should be fairy obvious. Rodon isn’t a lock to be part of the long-term mix either given his limited team control. You’re also ignoring potential injuries. Adding a veteran starter gives us more flexibility and sets us up better for a 2020 wild card run if enough things go right next year. Worrying about having too much starting pitching is like the ultimate first world problem and something I’ll happily deal with in 2020 in the unlikely even it materializes. That being said, I would try to limit any deal to two or three years (depending on the pitcher) if possible by offering up a higher AAV.

Fully agree. We’ll definitely be in the mix, but with the way the 2018 season shaked out, our offer will need to a be cut above the rest. And there will need to be a clear commitment by our ownership group & front office to add more impact talent over the next few offseasons. Given that we’re not a “win now” team like other organizations in the mix, we desperately need to sell these guys on the potential of coming to the Sox such as having an elite farm system, significant payroll flexibility, & the easiest path to the playoffs in the MLB (thanks AL Central). I truly believe that those can be compelling selling points, but again the money has to be there. And I know I’ll get a ton of shit for this, but no team is better prepared and should be more motivated to offer these guys a record breaking contract than the White Sox. I truly believe our leadership realizes that adding a legit superstar would instantly pay dividends and is prepared to do everything it can to land one of these guys this offseason.

I don’t really disagree with anything you say here. It all depends on the player & contract. I’m willing to use some cash in the short-term to add some stability and provide a bridge to the next wave of prospects for the right guy. I would love to add someone like Lance Lynn on a two year deal for maybe a bit higher salary than he’d otherwise get. I really don’t see the downsize risk adding an arm like this if the years are limited.

Pomeranz is definitely a guy I’d roll the dice on to fill a spot in the back-end of the rotation. I bet you can get him on a pretty favorable deal given how awful his 2018 season was and a decently sized group of starting alternatives available on the market.

Pomeranz is a guy that makes a ton of sense to take a flier on, but I’m not sure he can be the main rotation addition this off-season. With the Kopech injury, I really think we need to add a reliable veteran starter to take some pressure off Rodon, Lopez, & Giolito. That deal will likely need to be of the multi-year variety, but I think adding some stability to our young rotation is of the utmost importance. And I wouldn’t be against adding two starters if the second guy can be had on a favorable deal like I expect with Pomeranz.

I agree, I really think they’ll trade one of the OFs, with Rutherford, Gonzalez, & Adolfo being the most likely chips. I do struggle finding a good prospect for prospect match though.

The answer is whichever one can be convinced to take a contract with a first opt-out after year 4. The Indians will start losing a big chunk of their core to free agency in the next few years (Kluber after 2019, Carrasco after 2020, Lindor & Bauer after 2021). Our window to be the dominant team in the division opens up in 2021 IMO. That doesn’t mean 2020 is off the table necessarily, but a lot of things would have to go right for us (we are due for some good luck though). Regardless, all our moves of substance in the near-term should keep 2021 in mind. Machado or Harper under control for at least four years fits the bill. Even if we lose them after that point, having either one to kick off our window for the first two years would be huge. At first pass Machado is obviously the better fit, but I do think there are intangible benefits to adding one of the biggest “name” guys in the sport in Harper. And realistically if you believe in Madrigal, the odds are highly likely Moncada gets moved to 3B or the OF. The overall outcome may not be that different by adding Harper. Again, the key here is getting at least four years of team control. That may sound unlikely, but if we create a nice bump in pay in year 4, that may offset the benefit of potentially opting-out a year earlier. The team will no doubt need to be creative to win either one of these sweepstakes and that’s on top of offering as much money as everyone. All that being said, not pursing these guys would be crazy IMO. Young, elite positional talents don’t hit the market vey often and our best bet of landing one is to simply pursue all of them until it finally happens. Now is definitely not the time for us to be risk adverse...this organization is more than ready to add a franchise-altering free agent.

What do you mean we’re not in the top 10 for Machado?

I’m not guaranteeing anything, but given our organizational need and significant financial flexibility, we should no doubt be one the favorites to land a premier 3B free agent. Saying our chances are “slim to none” is just purposely being negative for no objective reason.

Great post. Obviously no one should ignore their retirement planning, but at the end of the day tomorrow isn’t promised. My view is to enjoy your life while you can & try your best to balance current and long-term objectives.

I know you love being a negative Nancy on here, but the statement above is absolutely ridiculous. At this very moment, we have to be one of the favorites to sign a premier 3B free agent

Why would we trade for guys with three years or less of team control? Go out and buy stopgaps in free agency if we need short-term fixes. Money should not be a problem for us.

How quickly Theo turned the Cubs around is no doubt impressive. He added a significant amount of positional talent in a very short period of time and that gave them a great foundation to build around. Having said that, him completely ignoring pitching development has cost them greatly. The Cubs got very lucky that Arietta & Hendricks both developed into quality starters and neither Lester or Lackey busted. They’ve had to trade a ton of high end prospect talent and commit big dollars to try and address pitching holes in recent years. Even Theo has somewhat acknowledged this being a problem and has changed their talent acquisition strategy quite a bit. I completely understand valuing positional prospects over pitchers when all else is equal, but the concept of TINSTAAA is quite frankly stupid IMO.

When are we out of the penalty box for internship signings? The next signing period in June/July? If so, we can’t realistically sign this kid unfortunately.

Oh shit, forgot his TJS recovery will likely carry into the 2018. In that case, I think they’ll start him in AA when he finally returns. With him already on the 40 man roster, we can’t be too conservative with him.

Here’s how I see the minor league OFs shaking out to start the season: AAA - Eloy, Cordell/Engel, Call (AAAA type) AA - Rutherford, Gonzalez, Basabe (Booker) A+: Walker, Robert, Adolfo (Frost) A: Dawkins, Gonzalez, Sowers (Destino) I would expect a lot of early in-season promotions for the higher end guys, with Basabe getting a bump to AAA and Adolfo & Roberto promotions to AA by the end of May at the latest.