Chicago White Sox

I don’t think Martin will be ready right away. And I really hope Scholtens isn’t in the rotation mix.

Then everyone gets bumped up a spot and Dr. Scholten’s can get first crack at the #5 spot.

Imagine this sexy rotation post Cease trade: Mike Soroka Michael Kopech Erick Fedde Touki Toussaint Jared Shuster*

I mean probably, but this is the type of guy you make a small bet on because if it works it actually creates value (think Merrill Kelly). And if not, it’s a dude that can soak up innings in a lost season. Not much downside risk if the price around 2/$10M.

And if you’re Fedde, you 100% sign with the White Sox if the money is the same as you will get a lot longer here than in New York.

Lots of Fedde threads I see

Lol…years of exposure to Parkman has made it easy to parody!

I think most of us wanted to trade him at the deadline and the rumors were that Hahn wasn’t very serious (was asking for Holliday). I agree, unless there is no offer of substance, we should move him before the deadline. That being said, I don’t think that gives other teams leverage. This is basic supply and demand and there aren’t many pitchers available like Cease and basically none that don’t cost a fuckton of money.

I’m honestly just fucking around and trying to see what it’s like to be Balta for 30 minutes. I’m not worried in the slightest yet and a Braves beat writer likely leaking org fed info doesn’t change that for me. I agree we may not see a trade during the Winter Meetings, but at some point Cease will be the best pitcher on the market and the offers will come. Just got to wait it a bit longer.

Unfortunately not. This just isn’t the pitching market we thought it was. With the Braves backing out now, I just don’t see who else would have interest at a price that makes sense for us. The Angels are the only team who are willing to pay up for SP and we already took all their prospects in the Giolito trade. I guess we’ll have to hold and hope for a better market at the trade deadline.

f***, we may not even have a crap Braves offer now. @Balta1701 - Looks like you were right and a Giolito return may be optimistic.

No, I’d consider both Cowser and Kjerstad as prospects and damn good ones. I just think the industry views Basallo & Mayo as better, based on what I’ve seen from certain prospect experts (including BA) and Orioles fans in general.

Basallo & Mayo are top three prospects for them and worth insanely more than the other guys you mention.

Your theory is 1/3 of a year of Giolito is worth the same as two years of a better pitcher on the cheap plus the high probability of draft pick compensation once he leaves via free agency?

Bring back Parkman from the dead and let him partake as well!

There are precarious few starters who are as durable (1st in starts since 2021) and as talented (5th in Stuff+ since 2021) as Dylan Cease. Teams aren’t stupid and know this. In fact, this is like when all the smart teams wanted to go pillage the Pirates for their talented but unrefined pitching talent (Cole, Musgrove, etc). The difference is that Cease has a track of proven success while also showing the dominance that he is capable of when it’s all going right. When he’s going to cost you the same Kenta Maeda that’s incredibly valuable.

In modern baseball, people don’t go back four or five years (especially when a raw SP was still developing) and put any merit in those numbers. 2021 to 2023 is really the most relevant window for him and as I mentioned previously he ranks 8th in fWAR during that time.

Because Balta’s projection model is FY = PY x 1.

You keep blaming velocity but his issues were related to general command and the changed shape of his slider. His reduced velocity was still 10th amongst qualified starters. His fastball was 3rd overall in Stuff+ despite the reduced velocity. However, there was a material change in his extension vs. 2022 and it’s very sensible to believe that he was dealing with some mechanical issues that altered both the shape of his slider and his ability to command it. Other teams with competent Analytics and Biometrics departments can see all this and probably already know what tweaks are needed to make a return to form. Will he ever post a 2.20 ERA again? Probably not. Will teams pay up for the 2022 version of him? Almost certainly not. But your theory he’s as valuable as Giolito was just a few months ago is plainly absurd.

Rosenthal isn’t Bob Nightengale. He reports out what he believes to be true and isn’t simply a proxy of a single biased team source. I know you want us to fail miserably in terms of a Cease trade, but this is a ridiculous reach even for you.

His slider in 2022 was the best pitch in Statcast history. That’s why he was so good in 2022 and I don’t know why people would expect that pitch to go away forever. He just needs to make some adjustments to get the shape of it back to what it once was.

I don’t think they took on $25M to $30M if bad money to then flip Kelenic for a cost controlled Cease. This is them buying a potential cheap LF solution for the next five years and making it easier to deal Grissom for SP help. I just don’t know how I’d feel about Grissom. His bat is somewhat interesting, but he has no ideal defensive position. Perhaps he can get better at 2B, but he was dreadful there last year. As part of larger package I’d take a shot on, but not sure I’d feel good with him being even the second most important piece.

He’s 8th in fWAR over the past three years. I don’t understand how our own fans are underrating him. Yes, he wasn’t his 2022 form in 2023, but he played behind a s%*# defense (-11 OAA behind him) and seems like he was dealing with some mechanical issues. The stuff was still elite and get him in a competent organization and his slider shape likely returns to form and he’s a substantially better pitcher in 2024. I guarantee teams don’t view 2023 as the norm moving forward.