Jerksticks

https://www.livescience.com/first-case-coronavirus-found.html Well according to this you had mid November as a first reported case but that would be after a certain amount of asymptomatic spreading time. And then 1-5 new cases popping up every day after that Nov. 19 case. What’s of course never mentioned, is how much asymptomatic spreading was going on even at that time. So realistically it was flying around the world a little bit late November, somewhat more in December, and probably quite substantially in January, wildfire in February? That seems decently realistic to me. You just can’t underestimate how many people never show symptoms, since we don’t know that number at all. But they were more than likely flying all over the world sandwiched in planes and airports and trains. That’s why I’m always saying it’s fucking everywhere. It just makes more sense based on our response. They knew it was everywhere. It was probably too late for countries to contain even around New Years. You can get to that conclusions with sound logic just as easily as other conclusions that are more popular.

Isn’t it interesting? Almost everybody I know got the flu this year. I haven’t had it in 15 years. Same with my wife. Almost killed her this year but she’s immune-compromised. Two uncles hospitalized with pneumonia in Jan-Feb, 1 in Texas, 1 in Chicago. The father of the lady in the office next to me had her dad die of pneumonia in Jan, she’s convinced it was Covid. All my in-laws in Texas got sick AF mid-late Feb. Not saying any of it was Covid either, but looking back, it was the first year I remember pretty much everybody I know telling me they were sick AF. Didn’t think anything of it at the time. Still no way to know anything. What’s even MORE interesting...say you go full crazy and say “tons of these anecdotes we’re all hearing of or personally lived through were Covid in late Dec-Feb, the US response to the virus actually makes a bit of sense. But who knows. Despite all the testing #s, death numbers etc...nobody knows shit.

I never said to emulate Sweden. I just said it looks like it will be the closest thing to a guinea pig the world has. Real data. It’s ok to want data. Data is good.

I admit the data isn’t there. Nobody knows shit. But yea, I’d guess we have at least 10s of millions of Americans infected at a minimum. It’s the only thing that makes sense to me.

Is this the week we see Sweden’s death toll spike to 50-100k?

What about Mon-Fri 5 game series, with Sat-Sun off to be with families? Every team alternates 1 week home, 1 week away. If they fly home Friday after their away series wraps up, the players get that Saturday through the next Sunday at home. Prioritize families, plus you have to throw your best 5 starters out there, good or bad. If they start late June or early July that would give about 15 series. Maybe each team plays each team once for 5 games.

You inspired me to look up Javy Vazquez’s game logs and the Sox lost the last 10 games he started in 2006, and 13 of his last 15. Whoof.

Yes very true...but methinks the withdrawals are not even close to concern #1. Family Feud: Reasons Continued Alcohol Sales Are Important During Coronavirus Survey says: #3: 1 Vote: Tax Revenues #2: 1 Vote: Don’t Want Withdrawal People Filling Up Hospitals #1: 98 Votes: Don’t want the social drinking class realizing they aren’t social drinkers...leading to huge surges in violence, rioting, murder, chaos and the complete destruction of the United States in like 6 hours.

Where do you get off barking at me like some junkyard dog online. I am the Preside... Dude, all I’ve been saying is due to the reported infectiousness of Covid, the spread must be way more massive than reported and asymptomatic populations must be quite large. I don’t KNOW that though, because the data isn’t there yet. Nobody knows shit because the data isn’t there. That’s it. I’m still sticking with that. Nobody knows shit. Sure enough, Sweden is probably the closest thing the world has to a controlled science experiment ATM. And it’s not even close to perfect. But it does seem to be the closest, for what it’s worth. The cruise ships are interesting but the sample size is too small to get any real data in the tenth, hundredth and thousandths of percents. What makes Sweden and the ships interesting is that you get the closest thing to full exposure, which is an actual data point of interest. But since the ship populations are so small, Sweden is really all we got. The closest thing to “full exposure”. And even if you conservatively estimate that only 25% of Sweden’s population has been exposed (2,500,000), you’re still looking at a tenth of a percent death rate. And that’s with the virus ripping up senior homes that they are rightfully pissed about. So if there aren’t 25,000...50,000...100,000 dead Swedes in the coming weeks, well that’s a fucking great thing for the world. A magnitude or TWO under 1% would be incredible. It’s okay to root for that. I know I sure am. People getting mad at less people dying and rooting for more death, just to say “I told you so”, is super depressing. It’s okay to admit the data isn’t there yet.

Of course; a person merely has to read an article about what they are doing in Sweden to gather that info. It sucks that crazy right-wingers have latched on to the Sweden thing but whatever, they are human too. The only INTERESTING data point about Sweden is the lack of exponential death to this point. A total exponential bloodbath is what all the models say should happen, so we’ll see. We’re at 4-5 weeks depending when you start the clock. Comparing Sweden to neighboring countries is really weird since they chose completely different strategies. Again, as I’ve said a few times before, it’s okay to root for good news for the human race.

Dude don’t lump me in with “economy” people. Since the very beginning in Feb-March, I’ve been steadily arguing this b**** is spreading like wildfire and that the asymptomatic rate is going to end up being ASTRONOMICALLY higher than what’s reported. That’s all. I’ve been steady with that. Some Bloomberg article today indicated that it looks like the virus can just suspend in air in crowded spaces. So yes, I continually challenge Balta and others that you don’t contain something like this, you just flatten the curve like we’re doing. Testing is pointless. But I respect the common opinion of containment. We’ll see. Where are the dead Swedes?

Still trumpeting this plan of attack eh? I respect your unwavering commitment to containing the virus.

Now do they keep everything locked down forever? Do you ban thousands of international travelers every day if it reopens? Do you make them do 14-day quarantines? I mean, cuz you want to trace and contain every possible case since 99.9999999% of the population is still completely vulnerable. I see this going well, sitting around waiting for a vaccine, closing down borders completely and forbidding all international in-and-out. Since obviously that’s the only way to contain something this ridiculously infectious. I’m not sure this is something to be proud of, closing life indefinitely & banking everything on the hopeful development of a perfect vaccine.

So is it safe to say South Korea is the best example of trace and contain?

Exactly. And anybody that’s tried to get a test has found it extremely difficult to do so, my family and friends included. I’d be more agreeable to the idea that we’ve had 1,000,000 pretty damn sick people that were sick enough to get tested. That’s not perfect science either but I could ALMOST be convinced that it represents some kind of data point that is SOMEWHAT close to accurate. What do you think of that Scoot?

Thanks for compiling but doesn’t this just make you wonder how many COVID cases there are? You cite an estimated 45 million flu cases but then cite only the tested cases of COVID. 2 completely different statistics designed to look the same. How many COVID cases do you estimate? Isn’t the correct answer “nobody has any clue”?

Interesting.

This isn’t an alleged assault contest- nobody should go there. Just assume everything about all of them is true. Everything. Ok have you done that in your head yet? Ok good. Are you crying yet? Good. Now watch the videos of Biden groping children. Try to ignore the videos of him groping women and focus on the kids. How does that make you feel watching him sniffing their hair and petting them? It’s a deeper level of terrible when you involve the kids. Like it or not, that’s going to be the narrative until Election Day. That’s why I’m so pissed America has to pick between these two idiots. 2 rapists and one of them molests children. This is the best of America?

But it’s rape. There is hardly ever evidence. There’s just testimony. And I understand what you’re saying, I do. It doesn’t pass muster. But then you watch all those videos of Joe basically molesting children and women. Nobody can watch that and think that’s okay. Nobody. You can’t discard that. And then his spin doctors just say “oh he’s touchy and affectionate”. Yea, well not with men. He’s not nuzzling and sniffing a man’s neck ever. He’s not groping a man’s waist and breast. He’s doing that to children and women exclusively. So I get that the law can’t connect the dots from rape accusation to guilt, but a citizen observing those videos of him molesting people can pretty easily make that leap in their head: ”Well I’m watching him be inappropriate with these kids and women on TV...yea I could easily see him taking it further when nobody is looking. It wouldn’t surprise me I guess after watching all of this.” This is the narrative Joe Biden supporters are going to have to deal with non stop until Election Day. This stuff isn’t going away...and it’s probably barely begun. It’s going to be hard for anybody that has children to watch those videos and cast a vote for that man. There’s no way I can do it. The Dems made a huge mistake stealing it from Bernie again. Woulda been a landslide victory, no rape.

Isn’t it amazing that the greatest organization of people the world has ever seen (USA) somehow can’t find 2 better candidates than these 2 idiots? We don’t have better leaders to select from among the 330 million? Baffles me every 4 years. The people gotta take it back one of these days.

Has Sweden announced when they are going to start “trace and contain” yet?

Well yea that seems like the obvious, hence my question.

I agree mostly. As long as opportunity isn’t lost. Has there been talk of independent leagues expanding into vacated stadiums and serving as rookie/prove-it leagues?

Obviously not testing was our strategy to protect the hospitals. So I wonder if that just keeps going? Let the super sick go to the hospital and let the rest isolate at home? I just doubt you see this massive testing here based on how unimportant it has been to the feds to this point. Like, what makes us really think they would start now? We’re obviously not going to trace and contain. One weird counter to them doing NOTHING is last I read Texas is mobilizing 1,200 national guard troops to set up testing locations in hot spots as they develop down here. So maybe we’re taking a middle of the road approach in TX. But this is a state mobilization not a federal response. Just speculating at what our boner in chief will end up doing.

For sure. Desires to participate are going to be all over the board. Forced participation is going to be a huge issue. There’s going to be a lot of tension in dense settings like offices no matter if states open early or wait 2 years. Life is going to be really different. I wouldn’t want to live in NYC right now.