Eminor3rd

QUOTE (OklahomaBrave @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 08:49 PM) I saw Enscheffs posts, he is a regular at talking chop where I post. And I posted here frequently all offseason, and started reading here daily again about a week or so ago. Side note, I like your board! Homerism is present for all fans of all teams of course, but I feel as though you have a really reasonable well informed fan base. I don't really agree that the Braves follow the surplus value model Enscheff presented, so I don't personally agree with that reasoning, although his logic is sound and well presented. I said back in the offseason I didn't think the Braves would trade Acuna or Maitan. I think that is more true now than it was this offseason. I think they would trade any pitcher, and even though the Whitesox have great young pitchers, they could use a top shelf lefty. Allard is our best pitching prospect, but I think he could be had. I believe he's better, and held in higher regard than Newcomb, even though the later is in our rotation. I do think they would trade Albies. I know Ensheff doesn't like him, but Austin Riley is a legit prospect and could be trade fodder as well. He has real plus power and many scouts are enthused about his improving body and defensive work. He also has a cannon. He's probably in the 120-150 range for many listers. People with sources I've talked to seem to think we'd prefer to trade Allard to Soroka, which I disagree with, but whatever. I'd be surprised if they gave up both Allard AND Albies since they are both too 25ish guys. For those mentioning Pache, if he were the third piece, be psyched. Wait until Longerhans at FG's list is published, he LOVES Pache, and I believe him to be the best public evaluator. I'd hate to lose Pache, but I believe they'd include him. The Braves will trade anyone from depth. We have a ton of pitching and a good amount of MI. Our outfield depth is ok enough we can lose Pache. Thanks for the info -- all of my much less informed opinions of the Braves prospects seem to match yours exactly, so that makes me feel better.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 03:00 PM) Not rabbit but to me, Acuna is best prospect in baseball I'm with you -- Acuna is the best prosepct in that system and the Braves know it. I don't think they'd give Acuna straight up for Quintana.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 12:49 PM) Isn't AAA on break? Probably wanted to keep him on a routine. Can confirm that AAA is indeed on break.

Brinson has and is currently destroying AAA at a substantial sample of work, and has demonstrated competent plate discipline and mid-to low K rates in the process. That's an elite prospect we should absolutely love to have. Would arguably be our #2 behind Moncada

QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 11, 2017 -> 10:20 PM) Just have to hope our scouts pick right package Yep, bingo.

QUOTE (Wanne @ Jul 11, 2017 -> 10:13 PM) less than we wish is one thing...but completely underwhelming is another. I'd rather keep him if that's the case... I mean I LOVE Quintana, but idk if that's true. I just don't know if it's possible to argue that he will provide real value to our next contender, and almost as hard to argue that his value will ever be higher than it is today. At some point, his value is what it is.

We can be reasonably confident that whatever Hahn gets for Quintana is gonna be the best possible package. He's been shopping him hard for like ten months. It might be less than we wish, but it's safe to say it'll be the market rate.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 10, 2017 -> 01:42 PM) Yep I'm also dropping those words. I was pissed almightily at the Sox and still am, but am finally over it. I realize we probably are going to suck for 2-3 more seasons and it's wait and see on all those young pitchers and how they perform when they come up. Hopefully those young pitchers will make me forget the era of Shields, Holland and Pelphrey and Miguel, etc. I prefer Black Jack, Sale, Buehrle and Britt Burns (at least the one that mowed down Baltimore for 9 innings). You and me both, man.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 10, 2017 -> 09:01 AM) If the return isn't that great, the equation changes. There is actually value to things like not destroying our young bullpen arms by having a somewhat stable starting staff, learning how to be a professional from guys who are the best in baseball at going about their business, etc. If the return for Q isn't going to be great, the scales rebalance towards those kind of things. You're right, they do -- but they would have to shift REALLY far to justify keeping him around simply to eat innings.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 10, 2017 -> 09:27 AM) The problem is everyone seems to be offering us $50 for our $100 bill in Q. If that happens long and consistently enough, at some point we have to accept that either (1) Quintana isn't valued as highly as we think he should be, or (2) the assets we want back are valued more highly than we think they should be. In both cases, we must adjust to the new reality, because neither condition changes our contention window. All the necessary market forces for optimized demand are in play and have been since the Winter Meetings.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jul 10, 2017 -> 07:45 AM) The same will hold true for Q. Presumably Hahn got offers in December (we don't exactly know what they were) which established the market, but he passed. Now the market is different in July, so we'll see. I'm just not convinced that Q, for who much of the value is contract and control, gets substantially higher offers in July than December....whether enough to offset the 60% of 1 season less value the receiving party gets for him. And then the question becomes, do they move him for best offer, even if they don't like it, or hold again for better offer (which certainly one would think would be a good bit less than last December). We'll find out. I'm okay with moving Q to the Cubs - with Jiminez as the centerpiece. None of this Schwarber stuff - DH is the last position to fill in a rebuild. I doubt the Cubs want to send their last elite prospect across town anymore than the Sox want to send Q to the northside. Yeah, unless an injury makes someone desperate next week, it's hard to imagine the market ever improving. At some point you have to accept that the market has spoken about a guy's value.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 7, 2017 -> 01:53 PM) I don't mean to be notorious. It's taken me this long to express my anger at the fact the team isn't going to be good for several more years. I'll just stifle and respond with my opinions of the upcoming trades once they are made. By now my main points have been made clear and I will not repeat them: I am mad at Hahn, mad at Jerry, still mad at Robin, mad at Renteria's bunting, mad that Fulmer and some of the draft picks have not been so good. Since everybody knows where I stand I will not repeat these positions. If I find myself unable to do this, I'll just go away. Give me a clean slate starting now. I can accept that my positions are well known on the state of the team. GO SOX! Take whatever position you want, greg. But stop being so goddamn patronizing with your "stat-niks, draft-niks, and HAN LOVERS" comments. You're directly insulting people -- I don't know why you wouldn't expect angry responses.

QUOTE (Lemon_44 @ Jul 10, 2017 -> 05:24 AM) I would have never traded Sale and think the return they got for him was abysmal so I expect a trade of Quintana and the return to be abysmal as well. I realize Moncada was/is a top 5 prospect but if the best pitcher in the AL, with a team friendly contract, can't get you an already established MLB outfielder like a Betts or Bradley, or even a Bennitendi then you failed in the trade and I expect the haul for Quintana to be disappointing as well. It's fine that you THINK that Sale should have returned that, but organized baseball simply doesn't agree. Hahn shopped the hell out of Sale for months and took the highest bid he received. That is, literally by definition, Sale's highest value. We all wish that our team could receive more value than it gives every time it makes a deal, but that's an erroneously simplistic way to evaluate a trade. The fact is that the White Sox had a valuable but expiring asset that could not be used to win a championship during it's period of usefulness. The Sox needed to trade their present-day assets for as much FUTURE value as possible, so as to preserve the value of the present asset instead of just letting it rot away. You can't trade a $20 bill for a $100 bill. But you CAN invest a $20 bill and end up with something more in the future. You can't cryogenically freeze Chris Sale and wake him up when the team is good. But you CAN trade him for an asset that is still developing and will be relevant when the team is good.

I think most people drastically underestimate the amount of talent required to build a healthy, sustainably competitive system from top to bottom. The bust rate on prospects is very high. We do not have enough talent in our system to abandon opportunities to acquire the types of prospects that Quintana can bring. Don't forget that Quintana is, in all likelihood, this regime's last chance to acquire a "big" prospect from another system. There will be other trades to make, but none that can command a top-25 talent or two. After this deal, all of our studs are going to have to be drafted and developed from within. If you disagree with me, it means you think the pieces of our next competitor are mostly already here. If your best guess at our next contender depends on more than half of our prospects turning into productive big leaguers, you're way off. It's always "possible" for a miracle sot occur, but you don't go down this far down this road the bail early and launch a Hail Mary.

I'm willing to give the white Sox the benefit of the doubt on transitioning Cuban players to American baseball until I have reason to believe otherwise

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 6, 2017 -> 02:21 PM) Unlikely, but Rick Hahn grew up a Cubs fan. I think he would be more than happy to trade with them. Of course the great Theo would be at the other end. Isn't there a concern about being swindled? The only team I'm afraid of trading with is the Rays, because they literally ONLY make deals in which they're completely convinced they've ripped the other team off. Normal GMs are willing to make even exchanges of future and present value based on what they need the most at a given time, and there's no reason at all that they can't be mutually beneficial.

Guys like Pelfrey and Shields likely won't move until near the deadline or shortly after, when teams that need depth have already swung and missed on actual upgrades and are just looking for depth.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 6, 2017 -> 12:09 PM) But if guys have no trade value do you really need 2 scrubs of return to dump in A ball somewhere and release in 2 years? The Sox have two tradeable assets in Robertson and Q and that's it. The rest will bring scrubs who mean nothing to a rebuild. You guys perplex me. Anthony Swarzak is going to be a free agent. He is gone no matter what. What would be accomplished by keeping him an extra month in a lost year?

We aren't safely past Super Two yet -- he'll be up sometime after the trade deadline, but not sooner.

I still like him as a CF

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jun 30, 2017 -> 11:53 AM) Only because you haven't encountered yet. Great as always guys. I feel like my favorite section is definitely always the Bonus section. You! *shakes fist*

I don't think there's much to "analyze" in the numbers at this point, I just think it's nice he's generally doing really well instead of getting wrecked, especially with the layoff in playing time.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 5, 2017 -> 01:32 PM) I remember when Sox fans used to say that a playoff appearance was enough. Then it became a World title would be enough. Now they have to win every single year. Knowing this fan base, they would turn into the Atlanta Braves who didn't even sell out playoff games. The only chance we'll have to find out will be to actually see it happen. Will sustained relevance make it cool/fashionable/fun to be a White Sox fan, or will it simply get old and boring? I'll join the Doomsday Bandwagon if we actually see a few consecutive years of contention and the figure still doesn't climb, but not until then.

Good.

Awesome article. You guys are doing some great work.