Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Baron @ Feb 23, 2016 -> 06:49 PM) Everything's fine. Why upgrade one of the worst defensive OFs in baseball?

C, 2B, and 3B were addressed quickly in the offseason. DH is difficult to replace because you'd be forced to bench or DFA the $13m attached to LaRoche. Between SS and RF, the former is a bad bat with plus defense, while the latter is a bad bat with bad defense. So if you have to replace one, it's the RF.

Yeah, I don't get it.

QUOTE (kevo880 @ Feb 23, 2016 -> 05:02 PM) I wasn't saying they won't make trades. Also the way I phrased that was just pointing out the obvious. All teams only make trades when they feel they have clearly wont he trade so just ignore that post. Not sure what I was trying to get at. I think Cameron's point was that a lot of teams will make trades that seem like roughly even exchanges of value, but meet the team's needs more. For example, Dombrowski gave up a ton for Kimbrel -- I highly doubt he thinks he fleeced the Padres, he probably just feels he traded from prospect depth to get a piece that he needed more than San Diego did. Cameron was saying that the Rays don't do that; they've got internal player valuation models that give them dollar-like assessments of asset value, and they only make trades if those models show them coming out way ahead.

QUOTE (kevo880 @ Feb 23, 2016 -> 02:39 PM) I feel you. I think I took some of my frustration out on my replies to you because all I have heard for weeks is what a failure this offseason was and how Rick Hahn isn't even trying, etc. and you happened to be the one giving me responses. I respect your opinion on what you think Hahn should have done, I just don't think it's that simple. I think leaks from agents and other organizations made Sox fans feel like a deal might have been closer to materializing that it actually was for one of the big 3. Cespedes is the only one that I think we could have persuaded with enough money, but he wanted to stay with the Mets an they gave him enough to satisfy him. I still think a trade is the best route to us getting an OFer. Yeah, I think Dick Allen broke down each contract for the "big three" OFers that have signed so far and looked at why each of them probably had their own unique obstacles for the White Sox. And I think if I can believe that, and give Hahn the benefit of the doubt. But man, it's going to hurt if Fowler signs for 2/24 with Baltimore. As far as trades go, I'm just struggling to find good candidates that are left. The Rays make the most sense, but I think trading with the Rays is hard. I was listening to a Dave Cameron podcast the other day, and he was saying how his friends in front offices told him that the Rays will basically ONLY make a trade if they feel like they've clearly won the deal. Which, there can obviously be differences in talent valuation that make it so the other team likes the deal, but he said it makes execs second guess themselves and wonder what they're missing when the Rays feel like they're ready to move. Beyond that, I feel like the Dodgers route has been played out; if there was a deal there, it would have been made. Who else has spare depth to move? I guess the Reds, though I'm not sure I believe in Jay Bruce at this point.

QUOTE (kevo880 @ Feb 23, 2016 -> 11:07 AM) I didn't realize I had to highlight what you ignored since you knew exactly what I was referring to, but anyways. I'm not an Avi supporter, but I do understand if the Sox can't find someone for their price then I think it makes sense to give Avi another go. He's a 24 year old with about 2 full season's worth of at bats, but has only played 1 full season in the majors. His defense sucks, but let's at least see if he can be a useful bat instead of jumping ship for a dumb contract. So if I was right, I didn't ignore anything, because I addressed it the very first post you quoted to begin this discussion. So what are you trying to say? Anyways I don't disagree with your argument conceptually -- like I said before, I believe Hahn has been wise in the past about walking away from valuable pieces when the price reaches a point that it erodes the value. Where I disagree is that the only option to replacing Avi was "a dumb contract." The reason I'm getting so worked up about RF specifically is because NONE of the contracts or trades that we've seen come to completion are "dumb." To the contrary they've all been "about right" at worst and "team-friendly" at best. The players that remain, according to rumor, are about to sign team-friendly deals as well. I go back to the Jose Abreu signing in my head. Before that, the biggest free agent contract in team history was Albert Belle's 5/55 in the late 90's -- meaning there was essentially NO precedent for the White Sox to open up the books for Abreu, and so it was a little difficult to believe it would happen. But it just made SO much sense as a baseball move. The team was forced into a "rebuild" but wanted it to go quickly, the team had practically no big money on the books, and the team's franchise icon at first (Konerko) was on his way out. The fit was ideal; more ideal that it was for any other team, and so it made sense to break the bank. And they did. That move made me confident that the front office was willing to buck its own "party line" when it made sense to do so, which is all anyone can really ask. I'm not going to re-list the reasons for the hundredth time, but buying a corner OF in this soft market made exactly the same kind of sense that the Abreu deal did. It's disappointing to me because the failure to make this move means either (1) I've overstated ownership's willingness to spend big money, even when it makes sense, (2) Hahn overplayed his negotiating hand, and simply dropped the ball at his favorite game, or (3) the White Sox still somehow believe in giving a large number of important ABs to Avisail Garcia, which, in my opinion, indicates a lack of understanding about their own ability to develop players that have tool but no semblance of baseball skills. I'd rather the explanation be #2, because if the dude just made a mistake, it's at least not indicative of a long-term issue. But in any case, it's a failure -- and it's one that carries a relatively good chance of having a substantial negative impact on the 2016 season. If they get Fowler or Jackson, it's a moot point. If Avi breaks out, this will look shrewd somehow. But those things are more likely NOT to happen than they are to happen, at this point, and so it worries me.

I think the Sox are very sensitive to their defensive challenges at this point. If whoever gets the most innings at SS is playing bad defense, it'll be because they're hitting the crap out of the ball enough to justify it, IMO. This isn't an exciting move, but it hedges against the risk of a terrible Saladino. It's a good depth move with a little upside.

QUOTE (kevo880 @ Feb 22, 2016 -> 06:11 PM) I love how you read what you want to read and ignore other things that are stated. I think there is a very good chance an OFer is acquired before the season starts, like I stated...However, if things don't play out that way then they will be on the lookout for someone. There are also people out there, obviously not you, who have hopes that Avi can still become more than he is. I understand not wanting a gaping hole in RF, but I don't think Avi will be given a long leash if they don't replace him before the season starts. I missed the part where you highlighted something I ignored. If you're referring to the part where you said you think they'll still upgrade before OD, then I'll point out that you ignored the latter half of my original post, where I addressed just that. If Avi sucks like he always has, the team will be actively harmed until better options become available via trade, at which point they will be forced to give up a substantial amount of talent to acquire someone to improve the team for AT MOST half the season. Guys don't become available earlier than that. Since there are only about 4-6 true "sellers" at the deadline these days, prices will be high, as opposed to historically low like they are right now. If you believe in Avi, then by all means make an argument for Avi. But it doesn't make strategic sense to sit out a soft market on a weakness, only to instead improve on the weakness later when the cost is higher and you've already suffered the weakness for half or more of the season. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 22, 2016 -> 06:14 PM) To me it is the most important point. Sure there were OFs, but if you can't afford to sign them, it doesn't matter. There's no incentive to pretend you're in the race for big free agents all winter only to disappoint everyone by letting them sign with your division rivals for less than anyone expected. The bottom line is that there were several major upgrades that were affordable. Either Hahn massively overplayed his hand, or the White Sox are a PR disaster and caulfield is actually right that they'll never spend any money. I want to believe that they WILL spend when it makes sense to do so, and I can't remember a situation where it made more sense than to do so here.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 22, 2016 -> 05:19 PM) I am curious where we are finding OFs on the street that we don't have to pay for. Don't take the analogy TOO far. It wasn't my best work, lol. QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Feb 22, 2016 -> 05:26 PM) Yeah, which is why I'm surprised you were advocating Upton/Gordon/Cespedes earlier in the thread. By far the most obvious move imo, is Austin Jackson. Because a 4-win OF is that much better than a 2-win OF. I support the move to 2-wins because it's the best course remaining; but the going rate for 4-win guys was nice, especially since we signed literally zero mid-high dollar free agents this year, so it's hard to believe that money for one of those guys went somewhere else. QUOTE (kevo880 @ Feb 22, 2016 -> 05:27 PM) Hahn is going to find an OFer to take at bats away from Avi. I don't think it will be a -1 WAR position in 2016. If the Sox don't upgrade the position before the season starts then I fully expect them to at the trade deadline if we are in contention for a playoff spot. Everyone is just mad bc it hasn't happened yet. I don't understand that line of thinking -- everyone agrees that this will be a hard fought division, and that if we win it, it's most likely going to come down to a few games. Playing a sub-replacement player for the first 4 months of the season could absolutely be the difference in a playoff spot. Further, if you don't HAVE to replace the RF at that point, you can instead work on shoring up a new problem that arose during the season.

QUOTE (kevo880 @ Feb 22, 2016 -> 05:07 PM) Gordon wasn't going anywhere except staying with KC, Upton wanted nothing to do with the South Side, and the Cespedes situation was a mess. When it comes down to it, he got what he wanted from the Mets and that's why he stayed there. The fact that you think it would be easy to get any of these 3 is laughable. It would have been an overpay if we somehow acquired any of them. You are also not understanding my stance. I'm saying I fully expect them to sign an OFer still, but it will be when either the player accepts they won't get the offer they want, or if it is via trade it will be when that team is willing to pull the trigger. If it's the Dodgers or Rays it looks like they will eventually have to make a move from their crowded outfields. There hasn't been a layup massive upgrade out there that the Sox have passed on. They are obviously trying to improve the position and haven't found anything they liked enough to pull the trigger. The people that piss and moan that we haven't signed Jackson or Fowler yet, and think it's a failure simply because we haven't is a joke. Are they improvements? Yes. Do they take this team to the next level? No. When you're a .500 team in a division full of .500 teams, upgrading a -1.0 WAR to something like 2.0 WAR is exactly the type of move that takes a team to the next level.

QUOTE (kevo880 @ Feb 22, 2016 -> 03:06 PM) I simply disagree with you. How many teams have multiple 3-4 WAR upgrades in one offseason? We already have it with Frazier and have noticeable upgrades at 2 other positions. That's like leaving $20 on the ground because you already found $20 earlier. The fact that's it's difficult to make multiple huge improvements doesn't mean the Sox should feel content letting opportunities pass by -- the RF market presented the easiest path to improvement for this team BY FAR. It was the softest free agent market for position players in probably ten years, there were twice as many high-end corner OF options available than at any other position, and there were remarkably few teams interested in buying. Price were lower than literally anyone predicted. They were so low that teams that didn't even have openings in the OF were acquiring talent simply because the value was impossible to pass up. The Frazier trade was awesome! Great job! Why skip the easy follow-up? Why not complete the picture? QUOTE (kevo880 @ Feb 22, 2016 -> 03:06 PM) I don't think it's a major flop, as you said, that we didn't also add a 3-4 WAR OFer. I'll be shocked if the sox don't add another OFer, but they are going to do it their way, which means going through every option and make the best decision instead of making a stupid move because they feel pressure from fans that don't think they did enough this offseason. Again, if the glut of OF talent were all pulling in $150m contracts or costing multiple top prospects to acquire, I'd have no issue with the lack of movement. I believe wholeheartedly that Hahn has wisely avoided overpaying for stuff he wants -- but that's NOT what happened here. Upgrading in RF would not be "making a stupid move because of fan pressure," it would be upgrading on a career sub-replacement black hole when the universe flopped a boon of all the necessary talent right in front of you at discount prices. I get what you're saying -- all the moves Hahn DID make were great. I liked them all individually. But ultimate success in the MLB is a binary thing. Please excuse the following mess of mixed sports metaphors, but ignoring the lay-up of making a massive, relatively cheap upgrade in RF feels like running the ball to the 2-yard line and taking a knee.

Yeah I can't give them credit for something that hasn't been done. The offseason DOES look good from the 10,000 foot view of a national writer, who is primarily looking at a list of transactions. But in the context of the roster and the market that existed, the lack of a high-end OF addition is major flop, and one that could cost a couple highly valuable wins given where we're likely to be on the curve. I'll be much happier if we add a Fowler/Jackson type at a reasonable price, but I still think that this was absolutely the year to offer the first big-boy free agent contract in team history (well, excluding Albert Belle) and get a juicy 4WAR upgrade in RF.

This is fine, of course. But I pray that this isn't what Hahn/media have been referring to as "another move possible."

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Feb 19, 2016 -> 08:42 AM) In the meantime, 2+ war out of melky and 1+ WAR out of Avi and this team contends. ...assuming absolutely nothing goes wrong anywhere else on the diamond.

QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Feb 19, 2016 -> 10:17 AM) Only in a discussion about the White Sox outfield defense would Dexter Fowler's name ever even remotely be mentioned as a "defensive upgrade". We should keep this in context, as in, we'd be replacing really bad defense with bad defense if he were to join the team. 1. And yet, it IS a defensive upgrade. 2. Fowler is a bad defensive center-fielder. That almost certainly means he will be at least a significantly better defensive right-fielder.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Feb 18, 2016 -> 05:20 PM) Do you believe Gordon or Cespedes would of signed with the Sox if they would of matched the respective offers they accepted from their incumbent clubs? Absolutely not.

QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 18, 2016 -> 04:43 PM) This whole "used as leverage" thing I think is weak rationalizing. If we knew the sox truly offered more, then they were used as leverage. If we were just offering "deals" that were comparable or less than what they received, than they chose us because we didn't offer the best deal, not because we were used. If Sox offered 3/90 for Cespedes, he would have signed here. If we offered 4/90 for Gordon (what we all thought he'd get pre-offseason), you'd have Gordon in LF. But just because they went back to their teams does not mean that their FA was an illusion like Lebron to MIA. Exactly. And both of those deals would have been considered very reasonable deals.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 18, 2016 -> 03:20 PM) Except when you have that many moving parts it is nearly impossible to know what it is going to take to fill all of them. It isn't like you can say to each team that they need to wait until you get the other four things lined up. But he made the trades first and VERY quickly. He essentially had four months to feel out the historically slow OF market, and watch and waited as prices fell further than anyone could have predicted. During the period, all of his "moving parts" were already settled; the OF signing was the final piece. We all laughed when Nightengale tweeted that the Sox were pushing for 3 years max on an OF, but then BOTH Gordon and Cespedes somehow DID fall to three years and below $80m! No we're seeing Fowler essentially begging for 3/$45m, and we're not in the picture. The Sox could have had these guys if they were willing to pay a very fair price. They have continually chosen not to, even after the players have been forced to give in to their "three year max" demands.

QUOTE (fathom @ Feb 18, 2016 -> 03:11 PM) Or did they just misjudge the market, especially in regards to how much the Big 3 outfielders were going to receive with the limited number of teams involved? I'd buy that if all of those OFs got $130m+ contracts, but they simply didn't. Literally no one expected the contracts for position players to be so reasonable, on the whole. If the Sox somehow thought that they were going to get one of those guys for EVEN LESS, they have no idea what they're doing.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 18, 2016 -> 03:03 PM) If you are Rick Hahn, are you willing to go to Jerry Reinsdorf and the Board of Directors and tell them that Dexter Fowler is the guy you need to put you over the top? If I was Rick Hahn, I would have gone to JR early in the season and said, "I see paths to fill four huge holes (3B, 2B, SP, RF) at bargain level prices. If we fill all four, I think we're arguably the best team in the Central. The downside is that they're all relatively short-term solutions, so if we do one, we should do all four to ensure that we realize the benefits. Here's what I think it costs." And if I couldn't get JR to commit to even ONE significant free agent, even when that free agent was going to cost under $50m, I would not have sold my precious assets for the partial upgrade. Not for 2 seasons, anyway. EDIT: 5 huge holes, including catcher.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 18, 2016 -> 02:24 PM) Yes we are a couple of pieces short. So is the entire AL Central. I don't think we are the leading candidate here, but we sure aren't out of it. The team has been improved a lot during the off-season, and it might be enough. That doesn't change the fact that we had several very realistic opportunities to make a substantial upgrade and passed for reasons unknown. I'm not talking about whether or not this team has a chance to win, I'm talking about a front office that didn't do everything it could to put it in the best position to win. If anything, the "flawed" state of every team in our division should have made investment in further improvement MORE valuable. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 18, 2016 -> 02:24 PM) Here is the thing though, even if we can't win it this year, the next off-season is probably going to be one of the best sellers markets in the history of baseball. All you have to do is look at the free agent market and know that teams that are willing to trade assets aren't going to be competing against quality free agents. They are going to be going against the worst free agent market in modern history. In a scenario where the Sox don't make it, AND decide to sell, they can decide to sell short term assets, such as Frazier and Lawrie, or they can go full out rebuild and trade from the starting pitcher stash. If they were to do it, they should be able to control the selling market more than most times. The acquisition of a corner outfielder at the extraordinarily reasonable prices that teams have been paying wouldn't hinder our ability to take advantage of a seller's market next year. In fact, it might HELP it. Also, that HAS to be the contingency plan, not the main plan.

If Avi is our Opening Day RF, then it has NOT been a good offseason. There has maybe never been a better buyer's market for corner OF in the history of free agency, and corner OF was the single biggest hole we had to fill on the team. We bicker back and forth around here a lot about the team's willingness to spend money. Some feel like the team should spend as much as it can every year to win, while others don't want to see inefficient and sloppy moves being made simply for the sake of spending resources. I've tended to fall on the latter side -- even though I acknowledge that ownership[ is making money and has a TON at its disposal, money should still be treated as a finite resource, because losing money is not a sustainable model. The rub on that line of thinking about falls around where the limit SHOULD be. How do you set a limit when you technically have more to spend than you need? To me, the answer is that you buy when the market is ripe for you to buy. Going into the offseason, no "contender" needed an corner OF more than us, with the exception of the Royals, and there were no less than 8 significant upgrades available (Heyward, Upton, Gordon, Cespedes, Fowler, Jackson, Parra, Dickerson). Pitchers and catcher have now reported, nearly all of those options are off the board, and nearly all of them have cost LESS than expected. The teams that have gotten them have, in many cases, created logjams with the acquisitions simply because the value to cost ratio was so good. And yet the White Sox still have nothing. I loved the Frazier, Lawrie, and Latos acquisitions, but if I knew our front office was going to stare a gift horse in the mouth for six straight months until the OF market collapsed entirely, I'd have rather they gone in a totally different direction.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 17, 2016 -> 08:08 PM) Jackson put up a 2.3 fWAR last year, while Avi put up a -1.1. That's a 3.4 fWAR differential, which is beyond substantial. I also think the Safeco is a plus, as plenty of guys have turned around after leaving Seattle. As for Jackson's role on the team, he'd be our CF with Eaton moving to RF. That's a significantly better defensive alignment than Cabrera-Eaton-Garcia. And I get you're an Avi fanboy, but there is nothing to suggest Avi will get materially better at this point in time. 1,100 career PA's and he's been worth a combined -1.9 fWAR, with no signs of improvement. We're talking about a a guy who is a horrific defender & poor base runner that also has no plate discipline. The odds of him ever hitting enough to account for his other shortcomings is incredibly small. You certaintly don't risk a legit shot at a division title over it. And I'm not even advocating dumping Avi, I'd like to see him as LaRoche's platoon partner and overall insurance policy at DH & LF. Amen, brother.

#2 on the "Best" list: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-best-tr...016-off-season/

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