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Everything posted by Eminor3rd
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MLB looking at strategy of deliberate tanking
Eminor3rd replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 3, 2016 -> 09:18 AM) Brewers Reds Padres (sort of) Phillies Braves Rockies Interestingly, there's an article out today about the Braves being one of the favorites for Lazarito, fwiw. http://m.mlb.com/news/article/163477810/am...ason-contenders Article about how every team in the AL is basically a postseason contender. Rockies are bad, but they're not tanking. They held onto CarGo, signed Gerardo Parra, and traded a younger OF for two years of a closer. Padres resisted moving any of their starters despite a strong market, signed Alexei Ramirez, added Jon Jay, kept Matt Kemp. And the Phillies, I'd argue, are actually now beginning the climb upward. I can almost guarantee the plan is to begin adding next winter. -
Dodgers aren't going to want depth pieces. They've got TONS of depth. They're going to want prospects.
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QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Feb 3, 2016 -> 10:30 AM) The link (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/02/white-sox-andre-ethier-dodgers-trade.html) made my heart skip a beat when the page didn't load the first time Haha sorry
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Phil Rogers has now made this MLBTR official: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/02/whit...gers-trade.html
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MLB looking at strategy of deliberate tanking
Eminor3rd replied to caulfield12's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Since the most recent CBA, tanking in baseball is a non-issue. There are maybe four teams tanking this year, and all of them look like they'll got a shot to compete within 2-3 seasons. The only team that looks like it'll run into that problem in the foreseeable future is the Tigers. -
QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 2, 2016 -> 02:21 PM) Here's my main point, I don't necessarily care about full rebuild. But upon being confronted with this tremendous sellers market for pitching, I wish they would have taken advantage. If there is a situation where ML assets are being undervalued, I want us to take advantage. If there is a situation where pitching assetss are being overvalued and we are not clear contenders, I want us to take advantage. I just can't get out of my head the question of whether we were closer to the playoffs trading Q for a haul than doing what we are doing now, with little left in the tank to acquire through anything but FA money, which we apparently have a strict budget on. The only reason that I disagree with you is because I saw an equally fortuitous buyer's market for the types of hitters we needed, and I think that, when given roughly equal opportunities, the team should default towards winning. But yes, if we weren't in the position to buy low on Frazier/Lawrie and one fo the corner OFs we missed, I'd agree 100%. That's what I mean by evaluating context, and it's also one of the reasons you can't make plans for four or five years out.
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I've said it before: the "scorched Earth" rebuild is a relic from a different era -- an era where the League did way less to ensure parity, where the rich teams spent literally ten times more on payroll than the poor ones, and the amateur player draft was a free market. A true-talent .500 team is currently a contender in any given year, so every team has a shot. Profits have never been higher, so the resources to improve are there. Hard-slotting in the draft substantial reduces team's ability to re-allocate financial resources directly to future talent acquisition, and the IFA rules are following suit soon, so the benefit from failure has been drastically reduced. The rise in injuries has made the promise of future performance a riskier bet than ever before. That doesn't mean we should constantly splurge, but it does mean that we can never consider ourselves more than a year or two from contention. That means constantly stockpiling assets with surplus present and future value, and capitalizing on opportunity by flexing the financial muscle when the market/league situation indicate it is smart to do so. If every transaction makes sense in the context it was presented, than success is bound to come. The Hahn regime has been acting just like I described ALL THE WAY UP TO this year's corner OF situation, where they have (thusfar) inexplicably refused to capitalize on an opportunity to take advantage of a soft market to drastically improve the team's talent level over the next three seasons.
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The Dodgers are pretty clearly prioritizing depth and have yet to indicate they care about their payroll levels at all. They've got surplus OF, IF, and SP. I don't think they're worried about Ethier's playing time, and I don't think they're too desperate to rid themselves of his contract. I'd be shocked if he weren't available, but I'm betting that it'll either cost us a decent prospect or to take the entirety of the contract off their hands. Otherwise, they'll just keep him and have a good platoon piece. Given that, Fowler is younger, less injury prone, and the cost of a comp-round pick is probably similar to what Ethier would draw anyway.
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I've always thought Guyer was underrated and should get a chance to start full-time.
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QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Feb 1, 2016 -> 12:04 PM) Phil RogersVerified account @philgrogers Not clear if there's a match but #WhiteSox are exploring #Dodgers Andre Ethier. His 2.7 WAR in '15 would be 4th best in their lineup. Welp, that's another possible OF upgrade off the table.
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QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 1, 2016 -> 12:15 PM) Only hits righty now (platoon with LaRoche instead?) Oh, my bad -- I thought it was the other way around (only hits lefty). So strike him from the list. QUOTE (2005thxfrthmmrs @ Feb 1, 2016 -> 12:16 PM) Also, assuming Saladino could handle SS with solid defense, which is very likely, he'd have a much higher floor than Avi. Yep, exactly.
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To me, Plan A is sign a full-time replacement for Avisail Garcia. This means Dexter Fowler or Austin Jackson. This is the shortest path to the largest improvement on the roster. Avisail Garcia can fight LaRoche and Cabrera for playing time -- if he's still got some upside in the tank, he'll still have an opportunity to show it. Plan B is Matt Joyce/Shane Victorino/Will Venable as a strong-side platoon partner for Avi. To me, Ian Desmond is outside of this discussion. I believe Ian Desmond becomes a player we should acquire if his price falls far enough, but I don't see it as an "instead of an OF" option. Garcia has been a sub-replacement level player and projects as a replacement-level player. The need to upgrade there remains whether or not you upgrade at SS first. The SS position is weak, but not nearly AS weak as RF, so it's a lower priority and one with fewer options, and one with options that come with high variance.
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QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Jan 30, 2016 -> 07:03 PM) How is Fowler in CF? Scouts love him; stats hate him.
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QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 29, 2016 -> 05:40 PM) Absolutely agreed. Cespedes asking price and desire to stay in NY never made much sense for the Sox and yet fans want to blame the front office for not signing Cespedes. It's the fans fault for assuming the Sox would sign Cespedes, not the FO. It's not about Cespedes -- it's about getting a RF when the market was flush with RF options and their prices were low. They need to get ONE of them, and they've whiffed on them all so far.
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Wow, they're high on Anderson.
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The "answers" for the Sox in RF have all signed with other teams; Fowler is the best remaining "answer." They gotta get somebody.
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Ventura Confirmed Interest in Cespedes/Gordon
Eminor3rd replied to Y2Jimmy0's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 08:09 PM) He also said he had to talk to Avi after the rumors and they are "excited" to have him starting in RF. STOP IT ROBIN STFU -
Look at our lineup right now. Look at the ZiPS projections article on FanGraphs. Assess and formulate where you think our team is. Think about our competition. Think about how Avisail's projected 0 WAR fits into the plan. Now tell me: Would you rather have Dexter Fowler in that lineup, or would you rather have an extra draft pick after the first round during the draft this year?
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QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 11:42 AM) A month ago I was 100% confident Avi wasn't going to be the starting RF in 2016, but that confidence is eroding more and more every day. And that's with one of most favorable OF markets you're ever going to see. Same -- it just made TOO much sense.
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QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 11:36 AM) It's time I change my signature lol At this point, I'd just roll with it if I were you. Might as well keep hope alive. Plus, it'll become ironic and funny at some point.
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I'm getting anxious. I'm afraid we are not going to get anyone. I can't deal with another Avi season.
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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 28, 2016 -> 10:43 AM) Some interesting choices there. Lots of FS videos and links to other FS content too - I'd say probably half the media links they use in total are from FS. Kind of surprised he didn't just reach out to us. In fact there are places in there where I get the feeling he may have just been reading our prospect profiles and re-stating some things. Maybe not though, it's hard to say that sort of thing because much of people's views on players will end up overlapping. Oh, I just assumed he DID reach out.
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Farnsworth often comes up with rankings that deviate from status quo: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-...cago-white-sox/ 1. Spencer Adams 2. Tim Anderson 3. Carson Fulmer 4. Adam Engel 5. Jordan Guerrero 6. Tyler Danish 7. Jacob May 8. Chris Beck 9. Corey Zangari 10. Trey Michalczewski 11. Eddy Alvarez 12. Jhoandro Alfaro 13. Jordan Stephens 14. Courtney Hawkins 15. Brian Clark 16. Jason Coats 17. Brandon Brennan 18. Micker Adolfo 19. Jake Peter 20. Andre Wheeler 21. Jace Fry 22. Robin Leyer 23. Thad Lowry Mentions: Danny Dopico, Johan Cruz, Amado Nunez, Nick Delmonico, Matt Davidson, Keon Barnum, Nolan Sanburn, Luis Martinez, Blake Hickman, David Trexler, Zach Thompson, Michael Ynoa. EDIT: Also, tons of FutureSox video featured!
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I didn't want Fowler, but I'm not going to be upset if we sign him. If he has a typical season, he improves the team by two to three wins.
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QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Jan 27, 2016 -> 03:20 PM) Sometimes you take the good with the bad. Like Abreu. His defense isn't stellar. His point is that all of those guys are elite defenders.