Eminor3rd

Yay a new scapegoat

I thought Dan Jennings was like 34

QUOTE (raBBit @ Oct 28, 2015 -> 05:42 PM) http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=94182 Hindsight makes Chilihead, greg and I look good in here. What a group. Also, Wite looks dumb. You suck Blake!!!! Except when he said this: QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 12, 2014 -> 03:14 PM) The Sox are in a slump where they can't compete with anybody in the division in head to head games. Did finish ahead of Minnie though. And with Gardenhire gone, that team should be buried for a while. Sorry, greg.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 28, 2015 -> 08:54 AM) Estrada, Gallardo, Fister, Kazmir, Iwakuma, Latos Estrada, Gallardo, Iwakuma, and Kazmir are all set up for big multi-year contracts.

QUOTE (Knackattack @ Oct 28, 2015 -> 10:57 AM) I like what you're saying here but I think the assessment of Rodon is way off and saying Fulmer is most likely a reliever is pretty ignorant as well. I... didn't say that. I said we have Fulmer and a bunch of guys that look like relievers. If I thought Fulmer was a reliever, I would have just said "we have a bunch of guys that look like relievers" instead of explicitly differentiating him by name. What's your "correct" assessment of Rodon, then? Pretty easy to throw "ignorant" around without offering anything of value yourself.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 28, 2015 -> 12:01 PM) I agree. Plus, I am so sick about hearing about JR and the loyalty crap, if Buehrle or AJP or Uribe came back and sucked, which father time is making more likely by the hour, it would be in full force. I understand wanting Buerhle back based on his numbers, but 4 cortisone shots, left off the postseason roster, should speak volumes. He also pitched pretty far ahead of his peripherals for most of the year, and cooled down pretty hard down the stretch, both in terms of his results and his health. K/9 rate is down in the 4's and he's pitching more to contact than even before, and had a pretty low BABIP. I get the dream, but I think Buerhle has a lot more red flags than it seems on the surface. He's probably done.

I'm not looking to trade any of them. SP is a strength, but the "depth" is overstated, IMO. Sale is elite, Quintana is a great #2, Rodon is a 3 with big upside, Danks is an overpaid #5 man in our #4 hole, and Johnson is a 4/5 with the upside of a 3. Behind that, we have Fulmer and some prospects that certainly have upside but that look like they are most likely going to be relievers. 1. You cannot assume Fulmer is ready as quickly as Rodon was, and even if you DO, you have to remember that Rodon pitched like a back-end guy most of the season. 2. If you remove Quintana from that #2 slot due to a trade, the whole thing suddenly looks very shaky. I think Rodon will become a strong #2 at some point, but it's very much a question mark if that happens this year -- he still struggle with command frequently and control almost as often, and he needs to learn to trust his fastball. And until he does learn to trust his fastball, we're not going to know if it has enough movement to be a big pitch. If it doesn't his control suddenly has to get really good. He's got work to do. 3. Remove ANY of them for a significant injury -- even Danks -- and you're in trouble quickly. You could argue we need to ADD a starter or two, at least of the "one-year pillow contract" type.

Wow nice.

QUOTE (beautox @ Oct 27, 2015 -> 12:47 PM) Obviously I respectively disagree and i think if you calculate out each deals value along with what each asset's current value is in relation to their club these are realistic trade proposals. In the case of Seattle, Miller shouldn't be playing CF let alone anywhere outside of the middle infield and he isn't going move Cano let alone Marte at this stage so he is an asset Seattle can move. I highly doubt Seattle's new GM empties what little they have in their farm for Lucroy if he could be attainable or goes and spends while likely giving up a pick for Weiters, when Flowers offers similar production for much less cost both in talent and opportunity. I see this as a similar situation as Dustin Ackley. With Miami, Johnson alone is a huge overpay when considering you're taking on Prado whole salary and he has one year remaining. Ozuna had a down year and has spoken out against Loria he will be moved this offseason, not necessarily for pennies on the dollar but his value is tarnished since the whole league knows he will be moved, Now johnson alone doesn't quite get you there thats why adding a near top 100 prospect in Adams goes a long way in addition to giving them Avisail as a stop gap for one of their prospects that also offers some albeit limited upside. In AZ they could use a veteran presence and more innings to break in their young rotation and while they've got a lot of depth around the diamond second base is a glaring need for them, John Danks at 9M is very reasonable for his production. To me it appears the organization has moved on from Micah and prefers Sanchez, so they need to move him before he stagnates if they don't feel that he is part of the core going forward and what little remains of Hawkins should be moved again to a franchise that is capable of developing young hitters. Two mid / back rotation starters and a 27 year old utility player seem fair but again I would like to hear why you think its too in the sox favor. Already posted above about LaRoche, Papelbon but again would like to hear your opinion on it. LaRoches market is incredibly limited, The pirates have a great looking 1B at AAA ready to go in Josh Bell, the only other place i can see him landing is Baltimore if they don't re-sign Davis. RE: Seattle -- Brad Miller is much more valuable than Ackley was/is because Miller is actually hitting petty well for a MI. Yes, Seattle should move him if they don't want to play him at SS (he clearly isn't good in the OF), but they can do better than Tyler Flowers, pretty easily. RE: Miami -- I disagree with the notion that players like Ozuna have less value because the league "knows he'll be moved." That makes sense (theory of leverage) if there's only one bidder, but if there are at least two serious suitors (and there will be much more than two), you create a bidding war where the winning bid approaches the level at which the buying teams value the asset. Unless the Marlins bungle it, they'll be able to get fair value out of Ozuna easily. I think we overrate the value of Adams and probably underrate the value of a solid short-term commodity like Prado. RE: Arizona -- I just don't think that's enough value for those guys. Danks at $9 might be "about right," but that's not enough to actually give him surplus value -- less value than a league minimum UT guy like Gosselin. I don't think the industry values Micah Johnson as high as the White Sox have, and last year did nothing to help that case. I think Shipley is the best prospect from either side there, and controllable LHP (even if it's probably a high-leverage reliever) is probably worth Hawkins alone right now. RE: Washington -- LaRoche as a backup is a waste of a roster spot, as they have younger, cheaper, more athletic mediocre 1b prospect types (Moore/Robinson) that can cover the corner OF spots if they need. Yes, they'll have all kinds of trouble moving Papelbon, but they might as well release him. Or, at least find a dead contract in a position where they need help, so a shot in the dark might be of some benefit.

Are we talking about the same Brad Miller? The 105 wRC+ middle infielder?

QUOTE (beautox @ Oct 27, 2015 -> 04:27 AM) C Tyler Flowers to Seattle for SS Brad Miller - Hahn has actively been trying to upgrade this spot for quite some time and the mariners are desperate for catching help since Zunino hasn't panned out. By installing Flowers as their catcher that is a swing of 1.2WAR, -.8 to .4WAR. Miller in the outfield has been a disaster for the M's and he isn't going to supplant Cano or Marte. Miller is a slighty above average defender at SS and 2B and can out produce Alexei for 1/20th of the cost. RHP Erik Johnson, OF Avisail Garcia & RHP Spencer Adams for 3B Martin Prado & OF Marcell Ozuna - Miami need young cheap pitching Johnson provides that and Loria has consistently shown a propensity for not wanting to pay anyone more than league minimum, taking all of Prado's salary and their outspoken outfielder in Ozuna solves some of their issues while giving them a lottery ticket in Avisail to play in left and a promising young arm in Adams in addition to 11M freed up to pay someone like Juan Uribe this offseason. Loria is on record saying he would trade Ozuna and Ozuna has had a down year in addition to being upset about how his major league service has been handled. LHP John Danks + 6M, 2B Micah Johnson & OF Courtney Hawkins for RHP Braden Shipley, LHP Cody Reed & UT Phil Gosselin - John Danks would've ranked second in fWAR and innings pitched on the d-backs staff, they've got some great young arms coming up but they need an inning eating stalwart to break their staff in. Johnson replaces Chris Owings at second base while fitting into their aggressive strategy on the base paths (2nd in SB overall in the league) and Hawkins is a change of scenery candidate going to a system that has had a lot of success in developing young hitters. Shipley appears to be a possible 3/4 on a staff in a year and a half, possibly two, Reed has a lot of potential but has issues with conditioning and is a long way away and Gosselin is a solid utility player. 1B Adam LaRoche for RHP Jonathan Papelbon. This is a bad contract / "cancer" swap, both are FAs after '16. LaRoche goes back to a place where he has had modest success backing up the oft injured Zimmerman and providing a left handed bat off the bench. The nats rid themselves of Papelbon and the sox get a high leverage reliever with a chip on his shoulder. I agree that all of those deals would make the team much better, but I don't think any of the opposing teams would actually make any of those deals.

A sample of one just isn't enough to make mathematical equivalency conversions, though I applaud your efforts, ss2k5. Realistically, this decision is 100% on the scouts. I'd like them to gamble in the KBO assuming prices don't seem inflated, but only if the scouts like what they see (like they did with Abreu).

Watched this alone from my dorm-lounge. Ran screaming up to the 10th floor and banged on the door of the only Astros fan I knew of.

QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Oct 26, 2015 -> 12:36 PM) A long time ago in a galaxy far far away... Mark You are relentless.

I like Sanchez as a guy who is going to fill an infield hole that may still exist by March. But I don't think Sanchez is a guy who we should go into the offseason PLANNING on starting at any particular spot. I think we should be trying to find an upgrade at all three infield positions that Sanchez can play, and if we fail, Sanchez is a fine fallback plan for each.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Oct 26, 2015 -> 12:21 AM) I don't make bets on teams I haven't seen yet.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 23, 2015 -> 03:05 PM) And if you take into consideration his age, leadership abilities, overall performance the last three or four years and especially his contract which is $7 million for five years, he's a top 3-5 catcher in the game. Gomes wasn't healthy this year for most of the season, he's probably better offensively...but you also have to take into consideration the positive effect he has on Volquez, Ventura, Herrera, etc. Having a bi-lingual catcher really helps. He's the bridge in that clubhouse between Latin America and the rest of the team, like Juan Uribe was for the Sox. The best teams have strong leadership...a coach on the field...in that position. Guys like Posey and Molina, as well as Martin once he had his career resurgence in Pitt and matured. McCann was garbage last year and is hugely overpaid. Cervelli has to prove he can do it consistently year after year. Perez has the most favorable contract in baseball, like we always hear about Sale and Q. Other than Posey, for that franchise, there's nobody who fits better (and considering salary as well, you lean towards Perez for overall value as well). Lucroy has his flaws just like Perez does, and he's relatively unproven in postseason play. Salvy also had the biggest clutch hit in the Royals' season last year against the A's in the wc game. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/yea...ARBR/order/true In 2014 he was 6th in war. You have Lucroy, Martin, Posey, Mesoraco and Gomes ahead of him. Mesoraco looked great and fell apart last year with injury problems. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/yea...on/c/sort/WARBR 2013, sixth again. Castro and Wellington Castillo appear here. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/yea...on/c/sort/WARBR 2012, 8th in war. He has consistently been one of the five or six best overall catchers in the game over that period. Couple issues with your issues: 1. The context of the conversation was centered on offense -- greg was positing that C offense is a lost cause because even the best of them are bad. The problem is that Perez is NOT a standard for elite catcher offense, because he's demonstrably NOT an elite offensive catcher. In fact, he's not even average. So the point doesn't stand. 2. I concede that Perez is a top ten catcher in the ML if you include defense. I concede that he's a top 5 "value" at catcher in the ML if you include contract as well. Unfortunately, neither of those two factors were relevant to greg's point or my argument. 3. Your rankings of "leadership" are completely arbitrary and made up. Of course leadership is important, but who's to say Perez is any better than any of the other guys? Even if he was, how MUCH better? What is your opinion based on? Is it just that he gives Hawk a boner? I'm sorry that I'm so damn irritable tonight. But fo' real though

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 23, 2015 -> 02:35 PM) Give me a do-over on this thread. I didn't realize Salvy was a stiff or at best just another guy. My bad. Granted! He's not a stiff at all, I just wouldn't consider his offense the "ceiling" -- I don't think we should simply accept that we won't get any offense out of the position.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 23, 2015 -> 01:23 PM) He's the standard for an excellent all around catcher. Who is regarded as better than him? Definitively or "arguably"? Defensively? Buster Posey, Russell Martin, Francisco Cervelli, Yadier Molina, Rene Rivera, and Jonathan Lucroy would be the definites. I would argue that Yan Gomes, Alex Avila, AJ Ellis, Martin Maldonado, Jesus Sucre, and Austin Hedges would at least be considered in the same class. Offensively? Well, here's a list of catchers (minimum 100PA) that had better offensive seasons in 2015 (by wRC+): Buster Posey Curt Casali Travis D'Arnaud Francisco Cervelli Chris Giminez AJ Ellis Yasmani Grandal Stephen Vogt Russell Martin AJ Pierzynski (lol) Roberto Perez (who?) Hank Conger Miguel Montero Josh Phegley (!) Brian McCann Robinson Chirinos Nick Hundley Jarrod Saltalamacchia Matt Weiters JR Murphy Welington Castillo Derek Norris Steve Clevenger Geovany Soto Jonathan Lucroy Blake Swihart Andrew Susac

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 23, 2015 -> 02:05 PM) That is true. Catchers don't hit much. Even the standard, the great Salvy Perez hit .260 (.280 OBP) with 21 homers and 70 ribbies. That's great and all but again, he's the best and only hitting .260; .280. Flowers coincidentally in a lot fewer at bats hit .239 with nine homers, 39 ribbies and .295 OPB; Soto hit .219, 9 hrs, 21 ribbies and .301 OBP. So combined the Sox catching hit 18 homers to Perez's 21 and had 60 ribbies to Perez's 70. And Flowers arguably is a decent defender, though he's no Salvy. Interesting that catcher did suck but like HH said catcher was no huge problem compared to most teams. He's right. We need to upgrade two of those spots. I'd say if we could upgrade 3B and RF (no way we can dump LaRoche on anybody) that would be a start because arguably Micah/Sanchez would be 'OK' and Trayce 'OK' in right. We can't go with Avi anymore as a regular. He's that bad. If you think Salvador Perez is the gold standard for catcher offense, I'm not sure we're watching the same sport.

QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Oct 23, 2015 -> 12:00 PM) Fine, have them throw in Piscotty too. QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Oct 23, 2015 -> 12:04 PM) Or Molina.

QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Oct 23, 2015 -> 11:33 AM) Alexei, Laroche, Garcia for Wong

Just a side note: remember that projections guess at playing time, too, but that's often not real useful. For example, if you want to see what Trayce Thompson is projected to put up next if he takes over RF full-time, you should use Steamer600, which essentially just projects every player as if he were a full-timer (600PA for position players, 450PA for catchers, 200IP for starters, 65IP for relievers).

QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Oct 22, 2015 -> 10:26 PM) If the recent past (nine years) is prologue with the White Sox that's probably a pretty good bet. Mark Ugh

The postseason isn't even over and we've already written off 2016.