Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 10:32 PM) LMAO. The projected WAR is wrong because they have them playing too much but projected standings and strength of schedule using these imcorrect numbers are good tools. The funny thing is since WAR is a counting stat of the 4 projections fangraphs uses, the almost all have Bonifacio making 100 more plate appearances than Beckahm and Beckham still the same or better. Please read the below, and mentally replace 'Garcia' with 'Bonifacio' QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 05:24 PM) Again, WAR is made on inputs that are designed to compare players in a context-neutral situation. When you're building a team, you have to consider the context in which you're deploying the player. It's probably true that Beckham would produce more value than Garcia if they were both placed a full-time role, but if they're occupying bench roles that specifically try to minimize their time at the plate and maximize their time on the basepaths/in the field, Beckham's ability to out-hit Garcia is marginalized. Except in the case of Bonifacio, Beckham may NOT even be able to outhit him, especially if each player is used in a platoon role. Beckham has a much more neutral platoon split, which evens him out in the unlikely and very unfortunate event that either player would be counted on to start consistently against the platoon split. But again: QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 05:24 PM) Again, WAR is made on inputs that are designed to compare players in a context-neutral situation. When you're building a team, you have to consider the context in which you're deploying the player. It's probably true that Beckham would produce more value than Garcia if they were both placed a full-time role, but if they're occupying bench roles that specifically try to minimize their time at the plate and maximize their time on the basepaths/in the field, Beckham's ability to out-hit Garcia is marginalized.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 04:33 PM) so you now agree that postimg standings based on projected WAR, and determining strength of Schedule based on projected WAR,(only weeks ago you thought it so important you started a thread) is a joke because now aparently projected WAR is now silly. Leury over Beckham? Another joke. Nope, wrong. I won't rehash my argument for the utility of WAR projections because I'm tired of re-typing it and you don't seem to respond well to anything that isn't completely black & white, but arguing that bench player WAR on an individual level can be a few decimals off due to PT does NOT invalidate projections because (a) bench players only add very small amounts to the projection in the first place, rarely (if ever) having a strong effect on the overall results, and (b) any WAR gained or lost by an individual player due to inaccurate PT numbers is subsequently gained or lost by a different player, thereby further marginalizing an already tiny effect. Dividing total innings to be played in a season is, essentially, a zero-sum calculation. So if Gordon Beckham's projected WAR is 0.2 too high because he's projected for 150 too many ABs, those 150 ABs are going to to another player instead who's very likley to put up something in the neighborhood of 0.1 - 0.3 WAR instead. In some extreme case, the Beckham PT disparity might be the difference between like 40 team WAR and , I don't know, 40.4?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 04:30 PM) But you are basically saying Bonifacio cannot play vs. RHP. For this point, I'm just going to repost this again. Maybe you'll read it this time: QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 04:22 PM) Do you mean literally never? I'm confused. He'll pinch-hit sometimes and get the occasional start, and those should only be against lefties, yes. But he'll also pinch run and serve a defensive replacement lots of times and not end up getting an at-bat. Sometimes when he plays, though, there are going to be some at bats against RHP relievers, so he'll definitely face them sometimes, yes. In fact, since he is technically a "switch hitter," he'll probably face a few too many RHP. But that's not really any different than Beckham. He should only ever start against lefties, especially since it's looking increasingly likely that left-handed Micah is the everyday starter. He'll get the occasional pinch hit ONLY against lefties, and he'll pinch run and defensive sub sometimes but less frequently than Bonifacio because he's less valuable at those things than Bonifacio. Next: QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 04:30 PM) And blow off all these projections that you used to think were very useful tools. Bonifacio is faster, he does play more positions. That doesn't mean he is valuable and Beckham needs to be waived. If Banifacio is so much more valuable, how are all these projections you seem to defend to no end whenever they are questioned, not coming to the same conclusion? I'm assuming that when you say "both players project about the same," you're referring to their WAR projections. In this instance, both players' projections assume they'll be getting a ton of PT. I don't think it's in the plan for either of them to get that PT, and so the WAR numbers aren't helpful, because WAR is a counting stat. For example, the only one of the systems that projects Beckham to reach 1.0 WAR is ZiPS, but ZiPS has him projected for over 500 PA. If you pro-rate those numbers for the more reasonable 300 PA that the other systems are calling for, you're going to be closer to that 0.5-0.7 range, which is where Bonifacio is despite ~100 fewer PA projected. If both players are deployed as they are planned to be deployed (or as I think they SHOULD be planned to be deployed at least), those baserunning numbers are going to be very important. If Bonifacio spends a lot of his time in the OF corners, his WAR numbers are going to be skewed downward because of the difference in replacement level for a corner OF vs. a second baseman. This is what people mean when they say that you need to use all the information you can to paint a picture rather than just consider one tool blindly and call it wrong when it doesn't answer every question for you. This is why no one ever argues that WAR is meant to be the "be all end all" stat except, ironically, Harold Reynolds when he's setting up a strawman. Even Dan Szymborski is quick to point out that PT numbers are the least reliable component of the projections because they are affected by things that are not visible in the numbers. The rates, however, are much better, and you may have to apply your own PT estimates when you have reason to believe yours are more accurate. QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 04:30 PM) Leury Garica is faster than either, and plays more positions than either. Maybe they should keep him. If we didn't already have Bonifacio, I would be in favor of keeping Garcia on the bench over Beckham precisely because of these things. Again, WAR is made on inputs that are designed to compare players in a context-neutral situation. When you're building a team, you have to consider the context in which you're deploying the player. It's probably true that Beckham would produce more value than Garcia if they were both placed a full-time role, but if they're occupying bench roles that specifically try to minimize their time at the plate and maximize their time on the basepaths/in the field, Beckham's ability to out-hit Garcia is marginalized.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 04:13 PM) Your fangraphs 4 projections project them pretty much the same, and Bonifacio makes double. Beckham is a bargain. Dick Allen. Are you reading these posts? If you're going to continue arguing this, please stop comparing both players' equally s***ty offensive projections/track records and address the differences on the basepaths and defensively, because that's literally the ENTIRE argument being made between the two players.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 04:13 PM) So you aren't ever going to play the guy vs, RHP? He is hardly going to play. Do you mean literally never? I'm confused. He'll pinch-hit sometimes and get the occasional start, and those should only be against lefties, yes. But he'll also pinch run and serve a defensive replacement lots of times and not end up getting an at-bat. Sometimes when he plays, though, there are going to be some at bats against RHP relievers, so he'll definitely face them sometimes, yes. In fact, since he is technically a "switch hitter," he'll probably face a few too many RHP. But that's not really any different than Beckham. He should only ever start against lefties, especially since it's looking increasingly likely that left-handed Micah is the everyday starter. He'll get the occasional pinch hit ONLY against lefties, and he'll pinch run and defensive sub sometimes but less frequently than Bonifacio because he's less valuable at those things than Bonifacio.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 02:21 PM) So the switch hitting that Eminor pointed out means nothing. An why is it cherry picking when he said having him in the line up for decent stretches and the Sox won't miss a beat? Can they request only LH pitchers? Beckham was pretty good against LHP too last season. But seriously, telling someone they are cherry picking when they are using career stats with a veteran is pretty weak. Ok, so take away the switch-hitting part and treat him like a righty. Bonifacio is a career 97 wRC+ against LHP, Beckham is a career 85 wRC+. And Bonifacio plays three more positions and is way faster.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 01:37 PM) If you saw the post I was refering to, the bat comes to play. Bonifacio will have some incredible offensive streak at some point this season assuming health. But no matter how fast he is, if he isn't on base, it really doesn't help much. An out batting LH counts just as much as an out batting RH. They are both decent bench guys. Certainly, but Bonifacio can be a valuable pinch runner and defensive replacement for everyone on the field, and he can be deployed with the platoon advantage (despite the fact that Beckham actually shows more neutral career splits than Bonifacio, but that won't matter because baseball managers will still only deploy traditional platoons) against any pitcher (except Pat Venditte, obviously). It's just flexibility. Bonifacio can help off the bench in a lot more ways than Beckham (or really almost every bench guy in the MLB) can.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 12:33 PM) So they can't carry Beckham's bat, but can carry Bonafacio's. I am the weird one. Come on DA, you're ignoring his entire argument, which is about everything OTHER than the bat. Beckham and Bonifacio are both similar shades of bad at the plate. But only one is a 70 runner, switch hitter, and can play nearly every position on the field competently. No, you don't want him starting for long periods of time, but that's your ideal bench guy.

I say Shuck -- get the lefty OF bench bat who may still have some upside. There's room for one of Saladino/Beckham, but not both. So I think Saladino is again sent to the minors.

Maybe you should just have a choice for "no homers."

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 13, 2015 -> 02:14 PM) Why you try to make me look like a fool at all times, this time I think you need to also include the post I was responding to when I posted those numbers. I'll give you a hint, the posters you mentioned didn't not author the post in which I was responding. I'm not trying to make you look like a fool, I'm just trying to figure out wtf you're trying to say. It just seems like you were arguing the exact opposite thing a minute ago -- and if two people are "arguing" the same point, I think someone should point it out. It happens all the time around here.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 13, 2015 -> 11:14 AM) As much as people think you don't have to watch players to evaluate them, just look at the boxscore, you really need to watch the player. Obviously, the Sox were not so high on Jeff Abbott. Isn't that exactly what NSS/caulfield have been arguing?

GAME 1 Bonifacio (8): Saladino (8): Gillaspie (5): Eminor3rd, Garcia (5): hi8is, Soto (4): Wilkins (6): Hawkins (4): Condor13, TouchemAllJoe Black (6): Sanchez (10): Bench (10): GAME 2 Eaton (10): Cabrera (5): Abreu (1): TouchemAllJoe LaRoche (3): Ramirez (6): Shuck (7): Eminor3rd, Beckham (6): Flowers (4) Johnson (9): Bench (10): Farrell (100): Condor13

Bonifacio (8): Saladino (8): Gillaspie (5): Eminor3rd, Garcia (5): hi8is, Soto (4): Wilkins (6): Hawkins (4): Condor13, Black (6): Sanchez (10):

I'd be more interested if his price falls into the $20-30m range.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Mar 12, 2015 -> 10:26 AM) /thread QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 12, 2015 -> 10:29 AM) This always seems to be made more complicated than it is. Do personalities matter in a clubhouse? Of course, they are human beings. Can "chemistry" effect a team? Also, of course. Can it be measured or predicted? Absoutely not. I think these two posts, combined, are it. Chemistry will be a scapegoat if the team sucks, no matter what the real issue is. It'll be lauded as a hero if the team succeeds, no matter what the real cause is. But it's a chicken & egg issue. Everyone's happy winning and they make friends with one another; everyone's upset losing, and they'll irritate each other.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Mar 11, 2015 -> 03:32 PM) Eh, nothing hit hard at all. Nothing for extra bases, but I don't know about "nothing hit hard." Couple well-hit flyouts in addition to the singles. QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Mar 11, 2015 -> 03:32 PM) Oh well, he was supposed to working on more changups, was that the case? I didn't notice much about pitch mix. To my eyes, the breaker didn't have a ton of bite and he was leaving stuff up in the zone in general. Didn't look awful, just definitely not sharp.

For anyone reading this later, Rodon got hit around today. I don't feel like the thread really reflects that info, haha

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 11, 2015 -> 02:12 PM) That doesn't mean he's better. And you said Beckham isn't one of the top 25. Hater's gonna hate. If Sanchez does have all this upside, I'd rather he be in Charlotte playing everyday than scattered ABs at the major league level. Sitting on the bench doesn't help your development. But that is just me. And if he beats out Micah this spring, the same for Micah. I don't think Leury's one of the top 25, either. I'm not backing off the of the "not one of the top 25" comment. Beckham is a well-established bad player. I do consider Sanchez as better, because his more well-rounded skillset is more useful to this team. I'd agree about the regular AB thing if it weren't for the fact that he doesn't seem to have anything to learn in AAA. He had a full year of 111 wRC+ there last year, which is probably his offensive ceiling anyway. I'd like to see him figure out how to hit ML pitching, and there's only one way to do that. Plus, if Micah gets the starting job, he won't have anything like an iron grip on it. There'll be room for plenty of reps for whoever the backup is.

Hanger, got lucky there.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 11, 2015 -> 02:08 PM) How can anyone not get a kick out of Beltin Bill Melton? My wife is a lawyer and has to do these extra educational things every year. A couple of years ago she went to a sports law seminar and the guest of honor was Melton. My wife, who can be as proper as can be, thought he was hysterical. I guess she talked to him after the event and Melton said he was a little nervous because he was the only non lawyer there. A few weeks later I went with her to the season ticketholder party and she introduces me to him. Don't get mad at the mispronounciations. Embrace them. This guy is a treasure. He proved it today. I agree. I admit that, at first, I was psisy about him. But now I realize how hilarious it is.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 11, 2015 -> 01:52 PM) You are saying Leury Garcia is a better player than Gordon Beckham? No. Nor do I know how you could have derived that. He IS faster and more defensively versatile, which is what I did say. QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 11, 2015 -> 01:52 PM) Look at Sanchez's numbers last year. He's better than Gordon Beckham as a back up? Advanced stats will even say you are wrong. As a back-up, yes. Sanchez has upside. I don't believe Beckham does. I like a guy on the bench who has a chance to break out. Who wouldn't? Beckham might be a marginally better hitter as of last year, but Sanchez could easily eclipse him if he improves, which isn't unlikely given that he's 22 or 23 or whatever. They seem about equal defensively, Sanchez is faster, and Sanchez is a switch-hitter.

Ugh, how did I miss this?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 11, 2015 -> 01:13 PM) And I am trying to get him to tell me why he isn't one of the top 25 players in the Sox camp. Why would someone like Sanchez or Leury Garcia or Saladino top him if it all has to do with past performance. Sanchez and Johnson have upside, Bonifacio and Garcia are fast and can play all over the diamond. All of those players are lefties or switch hitters. These are all great attributes for a bench player that Beckham doesn't have.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 11, 2015 -> 10:11 AM) Shouldn't we all be worried about Duke? He's had a history of being terrible and on March 11th, he is terrible. Your hatred of anything Gordon Beckham is noted, but you can't have it both ways. If Beckham was 13-13 with 5 homers, you would say his numbers are meaningless. So saying he isn't one of the top 25 players in camp because he is 1-13 is ridiculous. I'm not asking for it both ways -- Duke, just LAST YEAR, had an entire season of elite dominance as a relief pitcher. Yes, there are question marks because one entire season isn't two seasons or three seasons or ten seasons, but that is so much better an indicator of performance than Gordon Beckham's one good half-season five years ago followed by 2500 plate appearances of garbage. My saying he isn't one of the top 25 players in camp is a result of THAT plus tiny sprinkling of "oh btw he has still looked like s*** in ST this year." If he went 13-13 with five homers, I'd be damn impressed, but you're right that it wouldn't make me forget about the massive, years long resume of bad that he has collected thusfar. And it shouldn't. When Beckham has a full season of top-five-at-his-position performance, I'll gladly support giving him a contract and a spot on the roster. I don't hate Gordon Beckham, but I do hate it when bad players soak up PT on my favorite team, especially when there are alternatives.