Eminor3rd

QUOTE (brett05 @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 09:59 AM) Logically I am riding the hot hand. In your scenario you need to only look at percentages and those that do not succeed from day one won't be provided an opportunity to succeed later. That's poor managing. There's been a ton of research on this. All of it concludes that while hot streaks are certainly real, they hold no predictive value whatsoever. In other words, a guy is hot until he cools down, and there's no way to know when that will be. In any given at bat, a player's career numbers are better predictors of the result than his recent numbers. Even though a guy may be hot for a week, he isn't any more likely to STAY hot the next day. So if you put a guy into a terrible match-up, you're setting him up for failure no matter how hot he's been. You're "helping" the hot streak end. QUOTE (brett05 @ Feb 17, 2015 -> 10:11 AM) It's riding it out. All players slump and all players have hot hands. When they are hot you play them out. That's the right thing to do. More than likely the bench guys regress back to the norm fairly quickly. But while they are hot, you ride that out. That is maximizing the value. Yeah I see why this makes sense intuitively, but it turns out that things don't actually work that way. You maximize a guy's value by putting him in the best position to succeed. If you ride him until he fails, that huge failure takes a chunk out of the value he got you with his streak.

QUOTE (LDF @ Feb 16, 2015 -> 05:51 PM) its not going to happen, he is young and controllable for more yrs, plus his salary if 600 k +/-. QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 16, 2015 -> 05:56 PM) Have to agree. With Zimmermann and Fister being free agents after this year, they need Roark. Fister I can see resigning with the Nats as I can't see him costing as much as Zimmerman. My vote still goes to Beachy. Offer him what the Royals gave Medlen (he is under team control for two years, but we can guarantee him the second year if that's what it takes). Definitely. The Nats know how important SP depth is, and Fister hasn't exactly been able to stay off the DL the past couple years.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Feb 15, 2015 -> 12:18 PM) How the hell can anyone rank all 30 managers?

QUOTE (shysocks @ Feb 13, 2015 -> 04:52 PM) At the risk of sounding like a s***-head, I have to take issue with people characterizing this move as "low risk, high reward." First of all, such a signing is inherently impossible - that's not how risk and reward work. Second, I would not call Matt Albers a "high reward" guy. That would imply some kind of big upside, but realistically, the most we'll get out of Albers is a pretty good groundballing middle reliever. And while that'd be lovely, it's not going to change the outlook of the team. FALSE. Low risk/high reward things: 1. Insurance industry 2. Fan takes half court shot to win a million bucks 3. $1 lottery ticket

There's just no way JR would ever dump $80-100m into a 19 year-old prospect. I don't blame him.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/02/mino...onico-todd.html

QUOTE (hi8is @ Feb 13, 2015 -> 02:05 PM) Can the f***ing season start tomorrow, please? I dream of the day that I can watch mother f***ing White Sox baseball every god damned day, especially during the week while at work. Mother f***ing f***ing f*** f***..... f***!

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 13, 2015 -> 11:15 AM) Really? I always though he seemed like a decent guy. They do give him a lot of crap on his show for being over the top on the saber stuff, especially when they talk about clutch stuff, but he seems to laugh it off. In fact I was watching the other day and they were talking bullpens. The argument was getting outs vs. having a defined roll. I guess the saber thought is getting high leveraged outs doesn't matter whether it's the 7th, 8th or 9th, and the more traditional guys and Rosenthal who I think is in between embraced roles, and were of the belief the 9th inning is different than the 7th and 8th. They were arguing but laughing the entire time. I think the stuff I like the least was his Clubhouse Confidential segment where, at the end of the show, he would deliberately find someone who would never agree with him and they'd outvolume each other for like 4 minutes. But I haven't had cable for over a year now, maybe I'm just remembering him at his worst.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 13, 2015 -> 11:04 AM) I bet you would feel different if Hawk dissected baseball games these days like Brian Kenny. And even if you don't give him credit for what others did, he still came out ahead from what was left him. I'm not sure what you mean by the bolded. Do you mean if he was on TV explaining his thoughts, or do you mean if he was into sabermetrics? I'm not sure either of those things would change how I felt about his tenure as GM. As an aside, I'm actually not much of a Brian Kenny fan. I like that he sticks up for modern analytics, but he's needlessly divisive and condescending, and I don't think the a lot of the conclusions he draws make a ton of sense. I don't think he's a good ambassador. Brian Kenny is like Bill Maher. He's fighting the good fight, but not doing a good job of it and acting like a prick the entire time.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 13, 2015 -> 10:50 AM) Read the link, and wouldn't you have to give him credit for selecting Bonilla in the rule 5? Yeah, he does get credit for getting Bonilla. But then he gets credit for pissing him away for DeLeon, too. I read the article -- I just don't agree that he should get credit for what others' did. I'm glad that the regime after him was able to make some good trades with what Hawk left him. But Hawk did not trade DeLeon because he knew that he could flip him for Lance Johnson a year later. Additionally, the next regime could have gotten a LOT more than that for Bobby Bonilla in 1988. That type of argument DOES lead you to the conclusion that "it didn't end up so bad after all," which I concede. But it isn't to Hawk's CREDIT that it didn't end so bad. The next FO did a good job turning Hawk's lemons into lemonade.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 13, 2015 -> 10:46 AM) I might be the last Hawk Homer left in the world, but I love the guy. Sure he doesn't know when to shut up at times, but I love the fact that he articulates what I am thinking during the game. When I am pissed, he is ranting. When I am thrilled, he is over the moon. I don't want to think about the day that Hawk isn't in the booth. He is pretty much the only voice of the White Sox I can remember. Except for the 2005 playoffs, the guy is the soundtrack to every single great memory I have of my favorite team. I think he was among the best in the business in his prime. I think he is clearly NOT that now. He pisses me off sometimes because he says some of the dumbest s*** I've ever heard and he represents the White Sox, but most of the time I'm fine with him still. Not because he's good at his job necessarily, but because he usually makes me feel like him and I are in this thing together. He's just a part of the experience at this point. I don't agree with hardly anything my grandpa thinks, for example, but I still love him and want him around at Christmas.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 13, 2015 -> 10:30 AM) As I stated, the team was doomed. It was going to be bad. The next regime did a lot better job drafting players than ANY regime in White Sox history. And Hawk made some good trades. Calderon was a good player, and he also got the White Sox Tim Raines. Jose DeLeon, acquired for Bonilla, who Hawk selected in the rule 5 draft, was a good pitcher, and he also eventually netted Lance Johnson. Bonilla was better than DeLeon, but not as good as what the Sox might not have had if they had kept him. http://www.southsidesox.com/2013/1/11/3862...y-minor-leagues Right but you can't give Hawk credit for trading for Tim Raines or Lance Johnson. Hawk gets credit for DeLeon and Calderon. One of those was a good trade, one was a bad trade.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 13, 2015 -> 10:22 AM) Maybe a late spring training addition. They have spent the money. If there is something that really needs addressing, I think they now will try to do something about it instead of waiting. If, for some reason, all the computers are right, and this is a 77 or 78 win team (without huge injuries), it will be a huge blow to the franchise. More than any other year, I'm really nervous about health. This is a team that's totally fine if everything goes according to plan, but an injury to Abreu, Eaton, or any of the three top starters could ruin the season before it begins. And I think that's a lot of why the projections don't like the team -- they have playing time projections built in, and they assume contributions from much further down the depth chart than we typically imagine because they expect an average amount of injuries.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 13, 2015 -> 09:55 AM) Hawk's year as the GM has been written and talked about as something that basically set the team back for 5 years. That team was going to be bad regardless of who the GM was. All you really have to do is check the roster. There were some pieces acquired that helped in the future. I laugh at all of the people now who made it seem like Hawk committed some sort of felony when he got rid of LaRussa. LaRussa got booed every time he went to the mound. Many of the same people who would call into radio shows to say LaRussa sucked and needed to go are fans that now use firing LaRussa as proof Hawk is an idiot. You're right -- if someone claims that he set the franchise back several years, they're off base. Still, if the BEST thing you can say about a guy is that "the next regime was able to take advantage of all the great draft picks he earned them," and "the next regime was able to salvage some value from all the bad trades he made," then the guy was really bad.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Feb 13, 2015 -> 10:10 AM) Flowers would definitely get claimed. If someone had an injury to fill, sure. But he's making $2.6m this year. That's not a salary you just stash in the minors unless you really see some upside.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Feb 13, 2015 -> 10:02 AM) Flowers can't be sent to Charlotte. I'm assuming no one would claim him, lol.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 13, 2015 -> 09:09 AM) You do know in 1986 he picked Bonilla in the rule 5 don't you? Trading him probably turned out well for the White Sox. A few more wins the next couple of seasons, they might not have had McDowell, Ventura, Thomas and Fernandez later on. And if Soxtalk were around in 1986, LaRussa would have been about as popular as Robin Ventura if he brought Cleto in to close a 1 run game with the bases loaded. I think Larry Himes did a pretty good job as Hawk's replacement. I doubt Dombrowski, if he would have been the replacement had Hawk kept him around, would have been able to match. Hawk wasn't a great GM. He will be the first to tell you that. But it wasn't nearly as bad as a lot of people made it out to be. The 1986 team was doomed. Burns was done. Seaver wanted out. James was done. Hawk got Bonilla, who eventually turned into Lance Johnson. He also got Calderon who was pretty good, and became Tim Raines. Hawk got the job because the minor league system was worse than it has been at any point the last 20 years. The year before they drafted the great catcher Kurt Brown in round one. The next pick.........Barry Bonds. Lol DA, this might be the faintest praise I've ever read/heard.

I hope that both catcher spots are up for grabs. You want Kottaras in there because he mashes righties, but if Soto comes in strong, I'd love to see Flowers in Charlotte.

QUOTE (dewssox79 @ Feb 12, 2015 -> 02:58 PM) Danks is the wild card. If he pitches well we can be insane to face. Noesi as the 5th is just fine. A lot of people complained about his velocity drop since his injury, he needs to now pitch instead of throw. The change up is going to make or break it for him. I hope his changeup is above avg I think he's gonna have some good games, but just as many absolute disasters. The problem with his velo loss isn't that he CAN'T be good, it's that he has to be on-point practically every pitch in order to be good. He'll have that stuff some days, but he'll have to re-invent himself to avoid being a problem more often than not, IMO.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Feb 12, 2015 -> 01:53 PM) Eminor I hope you understand my rant was half truthful and more comedically intented in nature. Writing is more my thing than math so once in a while I write things just to get it off my chest with some humor and hopefully it's understood I meant no slights to anyone. But I still don't understand why it takes precedent over offseason acquisitions in the pinned area. I assume Soxtalk wants to grow as a community so even the casual fan can find things that appeal to them by dropping in here and lurking before eventually feeling comfortable enough to make posts. I realize threads "run their course " and the discussions of acquistions is old news at this point but the players and a chance at a successful season and the excitement it has generated are usually the primary interest of fans in general . I understand what is pinned is not my decision to make . It's just my feeling that having the best Sox topics pinned or on the front page is the best way to keep people who show up here interested in coming back rather then having them look at page after page of what's been discussed over the past few months rather than the first thing they see being FAQ about avanced stats. Yeah I just re-read my post and see that it reads like I was punching walls while writing it. I have a problem with coming off way angrier than I want to. I really am trying to work on that even though I'm failing. Sorry. To be clear: any rage that did exist in my last post is directed toward Charles Barkley, lol. The only thing directed toward you or greg is some mild exasperation I actually think what you said about thread pinning makes sense -- I can see a good argument hat all acquisitions should be up there until at least the start of the season.

Does seem like a ton of arms that could at least be bullpen pieces. Is this typical, though? Or is our system legitimately deep in this area?

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Feb 11, 2015 -> 08:26 PM) Heard Barkley's rant last night . Wondered if there would be something on here but I fail to see how it stays in PHT . Are all sabremetric discussions now required reading ? I mean, I try ,I really do, to understand some of the more frequently used new terms to stay abreast of things. Can't say I enjoy reading sooooooooo much about it though. I enjoy my sports which mostly consists of watching and drawing my own conclusions on players. Around here or any forum where younger people gather I'm thankful for the broadening of my horizons. However, I can definitely say it hasn't enhanced my enjoyment level of sports , probably has even lowered it a little bit to be honest. My math education stopped at Algebra 2 so everytime someone starts in with coeffeicients and variables yada yada yada, I get bored to tears. Is this math class or the place to discuss White Sox baseball. I see people ask what is FIP or something else. I'm like are you kidding me ? You're on a computer ! You have the world at your fingertips ! Stick it in a search engine and you can find all the stuff on it your little heart ever desired. You get rants like Hawk and Barkley and now me I guess because you guys never give it a rest . We have a permanently pinned section on it for whatever reason .All the offseason acquisitions should be pinned till at least opening day because thats what interests Sox fans who might wander into this place infrequently. What do they see pinned? FAQ's about advanced physics. We rant because we sucked at math and we feel dumb again, but even sucking it was still simple to understand ERA and fielding percentage and batting average. Now I need a degree from MIT. The reason people "don't give it a rest" is because it's an important part of modern baseball. It drives the decisions the front offices make. Why is that not interesting? Also, I don't understand why people treat this s*** like it's theoretical calculus or something. 95% of this stuff is just a simple weighted averages. It's multiplication. If you got Algebra 2, you get averaging numbers and multiplication. QUOTE (greg775 @ Feb 11, 2015 -> 11:49 PM) What some of you Sabes people must realize is a lot of us, including Barkley, do not give a s*** about advanced stats. I mean some of it is interesting, but I think what Charles is saying is a ballplayer knows a good ballplayer when he sees one. Believe me, I don't need advanced stats to tell me Rios or Dunn are good players. I happen to SEE them play and can tell you they are not. I'm not a big WAR guy obviously. When I see Adam Dunn whiff as much as he did as a Sox, and the fact he as our big gun never sniffed a postseason, tells me a lot. I don't need advanced stats telling me he was good or some such. Again, if you watch your favorite team all year, you know who is good and who is bad. That's my take. The Sabes people should be more tolerant of us Sabes haters or Sabes dislikers. Oh, we understand that you don't give a s***. The whole thing about having to be a good ballplayer to know a good ballplayer is elitist bulls***. If that's the case, greg, than by your own logic, you have no idea what you're talking about. All of us stupid fans should just sit in a bar and consume the program without a thought in our heads. Because we'll never "get it" anyway. QUOTE (greg775 @ Feb 11, 2015 -> 11:49 PM) The Sabes people should be more tolerant of us Sabes haters or Sabes dislikers. This is an ironic thing to say. Do you know why it doesn't seem like "Sabes haters" are tolerated? Because of moron rants like Barkley's "EVERYONE WHO DOES ADVANCED STATS IS JUST MAD CUZ THEY DIDN'T GET GIRLS IN HIGH SCHOOL," and the constant implication that being interested in advanced statistics is "ruining the integrity of the game" and that people who like sabermetrics "don't even watch the game." My suggestion to "sabes haters" is this: Stop slinging insults like a toddler and see if people stop treating you like a toddler.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Feb 11, 2015 -> 06:48 PM) Michael Lewis wrote a book that was a true story. Hollywood made the fictionalized version. The book is well known to have been highly "sensationalized." It's been a criticism since its release, long before the movie was even a thought.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Feb 11, 2015 -> 04:29 PM) It's only a wash if you ignore baserunning, in which Alexei is one of the best baserunning SS and Castro is one of the worst. That factor tips in the scale in Alexei's favor IMO. I'd probably choose Alexei too, but my point is that the choice is perfectly defensible, especially if you believe Castro has upside. The OP suggested it was like choosing Mark Grace over Frank Thomas.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Feb 11, 2015 -> 02:37 PM) The pick was for who will be better this season, so age doesn't matter. Alexei has also shown no signs of falling off a cliff (he always has good hitting starts to a season and gradually declines). Of course it does. A guy entering his age 33 season is more likely to decline than a guy entering his age 25 season.