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QUOTE (Reddy @ Dec 28, 2014 -> 01:34 AM) And yet they don't matter when evaluating pitchers? Those are different stats.

What is the argument that starting a guy in the bullpen makes sense?

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 19, 2014 -> 05:07 PM) Given that you could have 4 front of the rotation guys for a fraction of the front of the rotation cost, I absolutely don't think you move away from that and instead use the financial resources you have on other areas of the ballclub. Right, but that "financial cost-saving" component has increased trade value as well. In our situation, I think it likely makes most sense to keep the group together, but if a glaring hole opens up (maybe Avi Garcia busts or something) and a team is willing to pay up for a pitcher, it may make sense down the road to shuffle the assets.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 19, 2014 -> 12:50 PM) No question. If Sox want to spend big money on a pitcher, he's the choice. What if Rodon shows he's ready in 2015? Is it wise to go with 4 top of the rotation starters? Or should you trade one and firm up weaknesses elsewhere and live with 3 top of the rotation starters? Or not sign Samardizja and use the $20 million to firm up other spots. More information will be available in 6 months. And if TWO of the top pitching prospects show readiness, that will give the Sox a lot of weaponry. I get what you're saying. I think the answer depends on context. For example, where else does the team need shored up? Is it a buyer's or seller's market for pitching? I think there are certainly scenarios where it makes sense to "punt" your 4 and 5 spots if it allows you, in some way, to acquire a bigger upgrade elsewhere. However, a run saved is a run scored, so if you have to do something less than ideal to turn pitching into hitting, you can certainly be better off just being unbalanced. Depends on stuff.

I don't think it's likely at all that we re-sign Samardzija.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 03:57 PM) League average OPS for Catchers: .688 OPS for Flowers: .693 Flowers 2014 BABIP: .355 (which we can all confirm from watching had a LOT to do with ducksnorts) He had a 93 wRC+, which was exactly league average for a catcher, but he'll be substantially below that with a league average (or even career average) BABIP. Flowers is not good as he currently exists. Maybe he has upside left, but he's a comfortably below average starting catcher as of today, unless you think he's an elite game caller or something.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 12:02 PM) Welcome to SoxTalk! I agree on the exaggeration, and that Gillaspie has been pretty bad over there. But want to add two things... 1. Since his major issues, in my view, are with footwork... I think there is a decent chance he can improve. 2. I'd like to suggest a player already in the system - Tyler Saladino. He has played all the infield positions and is good enough arm and glove-wise to play them all competently, he's a RHB who tore up LHP last year in Charlotte, he's cheap and versatile. He's also got a little speed, and he's a guy Ventura said he really liked a couple years ago. Assuming he's healthy for ST, which supposedly he will be, he's a decent option to be Gillaspie's foil vs LHP and a general utility guy. If Saladino really can play an above-average ML 3B, I'm all for that. Still, if his bat can't be at least a 90 wRC+, we're one injury away from a real problem over there.

QUOTE (Andy the Clown @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 01:43 PM) 2B is a much bigger issue. Not defensively, though.

QUOTE (buster @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 11:17 AM) I like what Hahn has done to date. But in my mind it is imperative that he pick up a solid fielding 3rd basement. I don't care if the guy is a .250 hitter. They have picked up enough bats so they can add a weak stick at 3rd base. They cannot go into this season with Connor at 3rd. If he is their day in day out 3rd baseman, his fielding will blow at least 8-10 games. Welcome to the site. I think you may be exaggerating the effect a bit, but I agree that the defense (in general) is worrisome, and Gillaspie is bad there. I would LOVE for the Sox to prioritize acquiring a right-handed bench piece that plays a good defensive third base, so that we could at least go with a frequent defensive replacement late in games.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 11:41 AM) I'm not in Balta's head, but here's the flow of the conversation: The bolded wasn't actually in Balta's post but it's kind of an implied phrase. I initially read it the way you guys did but then thought there's no way anybody could think Melky is not better than Viciedo. Ok, I see. Yeah I read that totally wrong.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 10:01 AM) It's really hard to look at a player's season lines when he's never had a full season or even much longer than a month at a time in the Majors. August 2012 - Called up to Det April 2013 - Sent to the minors Mid May 2013 - Called up to Det Early July 2013 - Sent to minors Late July 2013 - Traded to Sox and placed in minors Mid August 2013 - Called up to Sox Early April 2014 - 60 day DL Mid August 2014 - Activated To me it makes very little sense to look at a full season line when a player has had that many promotions/demotions/injuries with sporadic short stretches in the Majors in between. I'll stand by my notion that in the longest continuous single season stretch in the Majors, he put up a 109 wRC+. That shows me that the talent is there and I view that level of play as being the floor for him going forward. If you look at his entire time with the Sox his wRC+ is 104 and in his time before his major injury it was 113. So I think it's just incredibly unfair to him to say that he has never shown to be at least a league average bat. I didn't say that -- I said he hasn't been an ABOVE average bat. I consider 98 wRC+m to be basically 100 wRC+. I'll give him average. But average is NOT good enough for him.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 10:23 AM) Imagine this roster without Melky Cabrera and with Viciedo. It's pretty much equally bad but with a tad bit more money. Maybe worse, far more circus music to be played in the background on average fly balls. What? How? How is Melky not a SUBTSTANTIAL offensive upgrade over Viciedo? How is Viciedo any better defensively?

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 08:15 AM) He hasn't? After the trade and recall from AAA in 2013 he posted a 109 wRC+ in his 42 games with the Sox. That is also the longest continuous stint he has had in the majors. I would tend to put more value and emphasis into that stint then I would in his short stints with the Tigers at age 21 or in his 38 games with the Sox last year when he was coming off a significant injury and still posted a barely below league average wRC+ of 91. Though obviously a small sample size (8 games) he did have 133 wRC+ last year at the time of his injury. I'm looking at his season lines. Always want as big a sample as possible.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 04:51 PM) Where we need to bring in a bench player is for the outfield. We have nothing in AAA to help. We have 3 guys ready to go for the infield. Let them fight it out. Why bring in someone we know is terrible like Beckham or Cabrera? Agreed.

Avisail Garcia has never had any stint in the MLB where he had an above league average bat. Dude has talent for days, but he hasn't shown us he knows how to play. He could learn and become a star, but it's not far-fetched to project him as nothing for next year at this point. I want to believe, I do, but he needs to show me something.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 03:12 PM) True, but the linear stats don't take these into consideration. There is no stat available that will predict what the other manager will do thus what your decision must be two innings later. So, regardless of what the linear weights say, sometimes you just can't make that move. It may tell you what the best move would be but that isn't always the correct one. Just like in a given season there are times where a manger will realize that he must lose a game for the bigger objective of having a better season. This could be due to saving a bullpen, starting pitcher or resting players. I'm not disagreeing with you, but I think this is completely outside of what we're arguing. I think what you're saying is definitely an important component, but it doesn't relate to the use of context-neutral or context dependent statistics when projecting the likely success or failure or a player at bat. So, good points! But I don't think it's evidence against linear weights in the scenario in the way I just used them.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 03:35 PM) Not sure if you mistake Cabrera as someone else, but he's pretty bad on defense. Seconded. Asdrubal is a very bad defender. Flashy hands, but tons of errors and Jeter-esque range. He's a second baseman.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-zips-p...cago-white-sox/

QUOTE (ron883 @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 07:51 PM) Let me ask you something. Do you view the Ortiz-Manny championship teams with an asterik next to it? I sure as hell do. I don't like that the Sox #2 hitter and a their #2/3 pitcher are certified cheaters. I don't want any possible championship run tainted by in asterisk, in my mind or in the public's mind. There would be no asterisk. All these players were punished, served their time, and are now presumably clean because they get tested regularly.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 08:12 AM) I would disagree that the only thing that matters is the next likely outcome. I think the manager also needs to look at what the other manager may do in response to certain decisions and think ahead to this decision may impact decisions later in the game. Well, that's a separate issue but consistent with what I'm arguing -- which is that you need to consider only what informs the future when you're making a tactical decision.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 07:48 PM) I love you measure context by citing linear weights. Not all outs are created equal, which is you're completely ignoring. An out right in front of Jose Abreu is much more costly than an out by #7 hitter all else being equal. But hey, all outs = -.299 runs. Regardless, Leury Garcia posted a .067 OBP in the leadoff spot last year. Alexei's career average in the leadoff spot is .339. So in just those 30 at-bats, Alexei could have reached base 8 more times. I'm not going to argue the significance of that, but that's a better estimate of the opportunity cost than the one you provided. You can't put the worst hitter in baseball in a high pressure spot and expect the same exact outcome. My main point all along was that Robin makes numerous decisions that go against all available information. I cited a specific example that I find particularly mind-boggling and you basically said it's ok because "it doesn't matter". I'm not even sure why I'm wasting my time arguing this. Whether you think that particular decision was material or not, there's no denying it was a stupid decision. Managers should be evaluated by their decision-making process and somehow Robin Ventura thought the worst hitter in baseball was the best alternative for the leadoff spot on multiple occasions. 1. Leury had not posted an .067 OBP at the time the decisions were being made. Back to my original post that you responded to: "people refuse to judge decisions based on the information available at the time." 2. Linear weights make the most sense BY FAR when making a decision about the thing that's about to happen, because they are designed specifically to measure the mean result. RV was not able to go forward in time and see that Leury Grcia batted almost as bad as anyone can possibly bat in those four games. The ONLY thing that matters when you're about to make a decision are the likely next outcomes and the likely next cost/rewards -- and linear weights stats were literally MADE to do the latter. You want to use context-dependent stats when describing what DID happen, but that is never an option when you're deciding what you WILL do now.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 03:22 PM) Again assuming that the guy who you put into the leadoff spot doesn't mentally zone out because he isn't in his usual spot. QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 03:48 PM) And the bench player who already isn't a good hitter who is forced into the leadoff spot? What happens to him? Right, he still hits and sucks elsewhere in the lineup, he just has like a 50% chance to have one fewer at bat. There's just no argument at all that it mattered or would ever matter when you're talking about a handful of starts.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 01:43 PM) God I knew you were going to say something like this. A f***ing stupid decision is acceptable because the old "it didn't matter" excuse. The problem is that these stupid little decisions can have a real impact on the outcome of individual games. Just because you're unable to quantify what that impact is doesn't mean it's not real. Context does matter and Leury Garcia batting leadoff in front of Abreu very well could of cost us a game last year. Yes, you CAN quantify it. The average cost of an out is -0.299 runs across all base/out states. Given Leury's .268 OBP and Alexei's All-Star™ .305 OBP, Alexei could have been expected to avoid that cost four percent more often. FanGraphs game logs (http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=5913&position=2B) show us that Leury had exactly 30 PA as a leadoff hitter last year. If Robin had magically known what Leury's OBP was, he could be expected to reach base 8.04 times out of the 30. Alexei, on the other hand, could have been expected to reach 9.15(!) times over those same 30 plate appearances. If luck was on his side, Alexei could have prevented that 0.299 run loss once! Holy crap, batting Alexei instead of Leury at leadoff could have given us an almost 30% chance to score ONE more run last year! What if that one run could have been the difference between winning 73 and 74 games? It's reeling. Except it's WAY less than that because Leury would have had to have batted somewhere else in the lineup. Oh, and many of those PA came as a pinch hitter, making the math even more ridiculous. Also, that run value for an out is from the steroid era, so it's actually too high. So no, it didn't and doesn't matter. At all. I am a batting order nazi, and even I can admit that the difference in batting Leury first instead of some other slightly less bad leadoff option for like 4 games over the course of an entire season is not even REMOTELY close to being beneficial enough to shake up a lineup, even if you BARELY believe in there being a negative effect to shaking up a lineup. You're grasping at straws here.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 01:43 PM) Speaking of, I hope at some point MLB teams re-design their sites. Their home pages are still from like 10 years ago where every possible bit of information is shoved all over the page. All the sites are awful and the back-end CMS is somehow even worse. It seems like the platform was invented in like 1997. It's horrible.

Based on that video, to me, he looks like Asdrubal Cabrera that will strike out 40% of the time.