Eminor3rd

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 04:06 PM) Dick was saying either a switch hitter or a LH because we need a LH badly . Morse ,Butler and Cuddyer are RH . Sandoval was pitiful against LH's this year and isn't a DH and Morales was just plain pitiful all around . Not solved at all. Not to nitpick, but RE: Sandoval, if you want a LH hitter, you are concerned with his performance against RHP, not LHP.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 03:34 PM) Guess the difference between our arguments is that I don't see VMart as the most risky by far. You mentioned Adam Laroche as a possibility. He's 13 months younger than VMart but he's not very good against LH's. Of course he'd be cheaper and be able to play a better 1st base than Martinez in late innings and occasional starts. So he's essentially useless against LH's and his K's hurt you in those runner on 3rd and less than 2 out situations. Martinez has shown throughout his career that he is equally good against LH's and RH's . You also have the same arguments for rapid decline because of the similarities in age. Sure you can sign him for 1 or 2 less years probably but I'd rather have the guy who can be a bigger threat against all pitchers and in late innings when teams bring in a specialist. I don't think his performance is any riskier than LaRoche's, but when you factor cost, Victor is a riskier proposition.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 03:18 PM) Riskiest would be giving one of those pitchers over $100 million or giving Scherzer a 7 year contract. If you are thinking, 3 years $48 is a doable thing, it would have to go a lot higher than that to be as risky as those signings. Yeah, that's probably true. What I meant to say was that Martinez represents the highest combination of high risk and short-term return. James Shields is the pitching equivalent this year.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 02:26 PM) That comes pretty close to my guestimates for the Sox. Nice work

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 02:32 PM) What I get from this thread is that everyone voting no is looking for the " perfect fit" to spend the big money on like Abreu was. That and the possibility of money tied up on an injured or rapidly declining player. We got lucky with Abreu and unlucky with Dunn and Danks. These 3 things combined have Sox fans very wary of long term committments. I think established/veteran talent has to be added always because other players careers also go into that negative trajectory mode. What if Abreu becomes the player he was in the 2nd half ? What if Avi becomes what Eminor always thought he was ? What if Sale blows out his arm ? For planned steps forward there always seems to be unplanned steps backward. There are always going to be contracts we aren't happy about. There's just no getting around that in todays game. At least when you add talent and things go awry in other areas to screw up your season that talent is tradeable. If you keep dumpster diving a guy like Noesi , for instance, isn't worth as much in trade as that established vet because of the fear he will go back to being trash. What you're saying makes a ton of sense, and I think it's at the center of the logical portion of Dick Allen's argument, too. There is ALWAYS risk with EVERYONE, and to avoid all risk is to not really play. That said, you can accept risk without completely ignoring it. What I'm trying to say is that V Mart is MORE risky than the average (age, injury, outlier season, inflated price, etc.) free agent. He may the MOST risky, in fact. I just think that, in our position, we should not take the RISKIEST step available to us. Remember, I'm all for going for Russell Martin, who is 31 and a catcher and also coming of a fluke season, and many have pointed out the risks in that correctly. But there are a lot of reason to think that's still a safer move than Martinez and will pay dividends for longer. Martinez is just the shortest, riskiest guy. In the light of this World Series, what with two hot WC teams making it all the way to the end despite just barely sneaking into the tournament in the first place, one of the hot topics in saber circles now is the mental re-imagining of what the "win curve" really looks like. If 87 wins gets you a shot at a title, you can make an argument that you're contender even if you're a true talent .500 (82 win) team. All it takes is a couple lucky breaks and a handful of extra innings victories. Hell, you can make an argument that you're a fringe contender if you're a BELOW .500 team. What this means is that there is value in sustaining a decent level of performance, without the peaks and valleys, where there was none before. Now, a 94 win juggernaut only has a marginally better shot at the championship, but costs drastically more in terms of time and money to create. Feast or famine is going out of style. For this reason, if we're going to take risks, it would behoove us to take those that have at least a reasonable shot at offering sustained return. I don't think you can look ahead more than 4 years with any shred of accuracy, but you can make a reasonable guess at how things will likely work out for the next few years at least. To me, V Mart is a bold, one year move that might work for two that almost certainly is a problem after three and four. It's a feast or famine move in an era where the middle road is looking like the most prudent path.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 02:21 PM) My thing with this whole argument is even at 20M a year the payroll only goes up to ~71.....If you believe Rock when he said that the payroll will be over 100M when the Sox are ready to compete that still leaves a good deal of cash to address other needs. I didn't say it was crippling on its own, but it's a substantial chunk of limited resources and so it will prevent us from using those resources for different things, that's all.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 02:19 PM) How about with with a career 125 wRC+ who bats lefthanded (actually both) can be plugged into the middle of the line up, and rarely swings and misses. He's not quite as good, but we might be able to get a left-handed 115 wRC+ DH for the 2/24 or 2/30 we want and without draft pick compensation if we're willing to let him strike out a bit and we're okay with him having two capital letters in his name. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...amp;position=1B

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 02:11 PM) Primarily because nobody is coming to mind, but who was the last pure DH to hit the free agent market? The only guy coming to mind right now is Dunn. I'm just curious to compare contracts between those types of players. I think that's the hardest part for me is trying to evaluate Martinez's value. He is a great hitter and he would likely be a productive hitter (at least a 100 wRC+ type hitter) over the life of a 4 year contract, but a perfectly average hitter who does nothing else is not worth $10 mill, let alone the hypothesized $20 million a year Martinez may get. He also brings literally nothing else to the table other than emergency catching and some 1B. Will teams overpay for the bat or value him appropriately given his age and limited defensive abilities? My gut leans towards the former but it's hard for me to say at this point. I do think he will get a 4th year or, at the very least, a vesting option with easily attainable milestones with a large buyout. Kendrys Morales is probably the only other comparable. Will the QO hurt Victor similarly? My gut is no because he's always been better, but who knows?

Matt Swartz's highly celebrated arbitration projector was released on MLBTR: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/proj...s-for-2015.html Here's the Sox section: White Sox (service time) Ronald Belisario (4.151) – $3.9MM Tyler Flowers (3.148) – $2.1MM Dayan Viciedo (3.123) – $4.4MM Hector Noesi (3.006) – $1.9MM Nate Jones (3.000) – $600K Javy Guerra (2.133) – $1.3MM This should be a pretty reliable frame of reference for discussion until the actual figures come in.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 01:57 PM) I agree. It's basically just a very generalized way of stating that I'd have absolutely no problem taking Victor Martinez at the right price, but that I doubt the right price is actually achievable. But I think that's the crux of the argument, though. Literally all of us want him on the team at a low price, but do you want him at market price? The board is split almost exactly 50/50 on the idea that he should be, essentially, the biggest part of our offseason, because the price he is going to command would definitely be the biggest expenditure for us, to the point of affecting or sometimes preventing other expenditures. That's a fascinating split, to me.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 01:46 PM) That is what I believe too. It would be nice to think you know 6 or 7 guys in the White Sox regular line up 3 or 4 years from now and/or their rotation and bullpen, but I am not sure if it is BA or BP that projects the line ups 3 or 4 years down the road. They usually wind up with only a couple of guys correct. To say before the Sox fill this huge hole, they need to fill this hole and that hole, is IMO being timid. You need to fill the holes when you can. And if those holes cannot be filled now, at least the one you did fill should be filled for a couple of years at the very least until someone develops or another opportunity arises. Or you still are going to be in the same spot year after year. The Sox cannot continue to waste Sale and Q and to some extent, Abreu. If you are waiting for this system to develop all these players before you take any decent sized risks, history has shown, we will all be waiting a long time. It's not about that though, it's about whether or not this guy is going to fill the hole for more than a year before he becomes an albatross. If he was even 30 years old, I'd be into it. It just seems if we're going to do it, let's NOT the choose the one that's 36, injury prone, has nowhere to go down the defensive spectrum, and is coming off a flukey good year that's going to guarantee he's overpriced. 2/24? 3/36? Even 3/45? Sure. But let's be realistic here: that's NOT going to get it done. There are other teams in even better positions to take advantage of his immediate talent, and ONE of them is going to be willing to give him that fourth year. Now we're talking 4/60, maybe 4/65 to get it done. And you're a bum knee or millisecond of batspeed away from having John Danks the DH. I'm not against improving the team using free agent money, I'm just against making the highest possible risks for the shortest term gains, and I think that's what Victor represents for us.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 12:11 PM) I just want to clarify my vote in this poll. The question is "Do you want Victor Martinez?" My answer to that question is yes, assuming that we are defining "want" as "want Victor Martinez to play on the Chicago White Sox" and not "want Victor Martinez to send me a naked selfie." I absolutely want the former, I absolutely do not want the latter due to the bodily effects gravity plays on people. However, it's all cost dependent. I think Chicago White Sox mentioned 3/$48 as his limit; I agree with that. Really, anything much more than that on either end is getting too long and too expensive. This is a who has, for all intents and purposes, zero defensive value and he is getting older. Those types of players historically do not return a ton of value and are typically overpaid based on previous performances. I just can't see any situation where 3/$48 gets it done. The Mariners will beat that. The Royals should at least match it. Orioles would match it assuming Cruz doesn't accept the QO. Astros are under pressure to raise the payroll. Only takes one.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 12:26 PM) What is the market for Hanley Ramirez? It seems like a lot of teams prefer Headley/Sandoval? Who's been suspected to be in the bidding other than SF and LAD? Maybe the Red Sox? He also was apparently pissy about not playing SS in Miami before they dealt him, so many teams may be wary of dealing with moving him there.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 11:37 AM) The problem with investing in defense is there really are only 2 places realistically they will invest. 3b and a rOF spot. Avasail Garcia, whether we like it or not, is not going to DH at this point. They are going to use a prospect at 2b. Alexei at SS. Abreu isn't going to be a full time DH, and Flowers is a cheap C. Eaton is going to play CF or maybe a corner if they get a CF. 3B, a corner OF spot, and a C would make a substantial difference though, IMO.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 11:40 AM) Read again. They are raising ticket prices, which means raising payroll, which means trying to contend, which is exactly what the Royals are trying to do which makes Martinez a "perfect fit" for them. The White Sox could use a little more offense, a little more contact, and left handed presence. Just what he provides. My point is that there are many more factors involved, most of them related to roster construction, but also related to the team's long-term goals.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 11:30 AM) Judging by the White Sox raising ticket prices in some cases very significantly, I think they are expecting to spend some money this offseason, and expecting to contend in 2015. So really, they are in the same boat as KC. White Sox are raising ticket prices, therefore they should be targeting the same free agents as the Royals.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 11:26 AM) So how much confidence do we have in that evaluation of Markakis' defense. The overall rating seems heavily based on the difference in their defensive prowess. That really is the million dollar question. Typically, when consensus favors a guy like him being a high-end defender, it's easy to overlook the SABR defense data. But with Markakis, he's reated SO bad for SO long, that it's hard to argue for any sample size issues. But, I guess you could even throw defense out the window and conclude they are essentially the SAME player offensively.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 11:13 AM) No, it was Lyle Mouton. My first thought when I saw this reply was, "Pssh! He's not left-handed!"

Alright, check this article out: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs...t-comparison-1/ Aoki vs. Markakis

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 11:11 AM) LMAO. How do you get into contention if you are afraid of paying good players? If Victor Martinez is a good fit for the Royals, he is a good fit for the White Sox. Newsflash....Hahn is trying to win, not see if 1 in 100 waiver claims works out. I would just respond with what shysocks said, again: QUOTE (shysocks @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 10:31 AM) They can be, it's just less likely. I continue to think that Victor's production will not match his contract, but if I had to pick one year of the next four where it will, it's 2015. That's the most important year for the Royals. The most important year for the Sox is 2016, or maybe later. "Bad contract for Sox = bad contract for Royals" makes sense in a vacuum, but all 30 teams are in a different situation, and I'll just say that Victor wouldn't be as bad a deal for KC. And just for the record, I do not want Butler, and I do not think the Royals will sign Martinez Additionally, I think our team is one that needs to invest in some good defense. The Royals are NOT, and thus can actually really benefit from a bat that doesn't take any of their good defenders off the field.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 10:10 AM) He needs to be Batman meme slapped if he doesn't.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 08:28 AM) Nope. Blackmon. I don't think they're going to make Dickerson available. Ahh. I guess I just didn't think Blackmon was worth that much.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 11:07 AM) Rodon was the 3rd pick. Finnegan the 17th. Rodon is by far the more decorated prospect. Finnegan has 34 innings as a pro. Banking on him being a big part of a playoff rotation is a bit crazy. Also, starting is SO different than throwing as hard as you can for a couple innings at a time against guys who have never seen video on you. Also, caulfield is WAY too high on Duffy, IMO. Good prospect, but calling him a "co-number one" is nuts at this point.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 10:31 AM) They can be, it's just less likely. I continue to think that Victor's production will not match his contract, but if I had to pick one year of the next four where it will, it's 2015. That's the most important year for the Royals. The most important year for the Sox is 2016, or maybe later. "Bad contract for Sox = bad contract for Royals" makes sense in a vacuum, but all 30 teams are in a different situation, and I'll just say that Victor wouldn't be as bad a deal for KC. And just for the record, I do not want Butler, and I do not think the Royals will sign Martinez This is it precisely.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 09:49 AM) Why is Victor Martinez perfect for the Royals, but for the White Sox he would be nothing but a bad contract? Because the Royals are substantially better than the White Sox and are very obviously ready to contend next year.