Eminor3rd

QUOTE (rneums33 @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 08:29 AM) Why all the no's to VMart? The guy is a pure hitter and is exactly what this lineup needs. A left handed (or switch hitting) bat to protect Abreu. I know he is 36 but all he will do is DH and maybe play 1st once in a while. 3 years of VMart at 36 will payoff better than 4 years of Dunn. VMart will still be producing when he is 39. Some guys are just pure hitters and he is one of them. Plus, we will hurt Detroit by taking him and who else on the market is a better bat than him? Oh. Well, that kind of changes everything. Thanks for bringing that up. Now that we know he'll still be producing at 39, I'm actually kind of on board with it. I wonder if Hahn is privy to this information.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 11:39 PM) And who here is willing to give up Tim Anderson for Blackmon? Montas? Because that will be the asking price...not 2-3 "second tier" guys like Beck, Sanchez and Trayce Thompson cobbled together into a package. Did you mean Dickerson?

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 09:52 PM) I agree with what you're saying, I really don't get it either. He's not worth the 15.3M QO or losing a draft pick over. If he accepts the QO he will be untradeable without the Rockies sending money with him. I'm stumped like everyone else to be honest. Maybe they plan on trading Morneau and playing Cuddyer at 1B? Heck if I know... Yeah, someone has to go for sure, and you'd assume it ISN'T Dickerson or Stubbs because he's the only one that can really play CF. CarGo? Morneau?

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 06:38 PM) Just a guess but maybe the Rockies figure Cuddyer opts for FA in hopes of getting a 2 or 3 year deal so by extending him a QO they secure compensation. But if history is any indication, no one is going to give him that with the draft pick attached.

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 09:17 PM) What does Moustakas have to do with Gillaspie? And I'm not advocating signing Sandoval really. Don't get me wrong, I would want if the $ was right (which it won't be), but my post was more about the idea of not wanting to sing any player because of Conor Gillaspie being ridiculous. Sandoval was the example that someone else used. I'm with you on this one -- Conor is a nice stopgap, but he is not blocking anybody at all, inside or outside the organization. I think the argument that Balta et al. are making is simply that we have bigger holes to fill first, which is true also.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 07:54 PM) I would guess the Royals aren't willing to spend that kind of money, whether he fits their roster or not. Cot's only shows them with $50m in commitments next year though. Assuming Butler and Shields walk, you can bet they'll be spending SOMEwhere. And as an elite defensive team, upgrading at DH actually makes a ton of sense, as it doesn't replace any of the defenders.

We can't ignore the additional cost of forfeiting all international signings for two years as well. This smells like something that's going to be nuts to me. I highly doubt Hahn takes this kind of risk.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 05:33 PM) McEwing has some of the best post HR high fives around, Renteria can't match that. /thread. haha

Cuddyer is a head-scratcher. Gotta be a trade coming.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 05:54 PM) Victor Martinez, 3 years for $48 million, I'm okay with that. The problem is 2015's likely to be his best season of those three, and the timing's off by one year...where when we needed him in 2014 form, we'd be getting a predictably diminished return already in 2016. Royals are a MUCH better fit for Martinez. (Although I doubt they're willing to give him four years, either). Maybe they'll go 3 years/$54-56 million. Royals ARE an interesting fit, actually.

I mean, minor league deal, sure. I just can't believe he's healthy enough to be what he used to be.

At the very least, this guy is your "well nothing worked out this offseason" back-up plan platoon partner for Viciedo, right? Or was that Jordan Danks?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 03:24 PM) Maybe you shouldn't have referenced it to make a point. sigh

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 03:09 PM) It is just funny that you throw out Steamer in order to say something makes sense, but when I throw out the same, "theres something better than Steamer". The only reason I used it is because you did earlier. Just be consistent. Steamer isn't useless nor infallible, it's a point of reference. Especially in the instance of some uncommon statistical anomaly, such as Victor Martinez's random career year, it's best to use multiple points of reference. I'm not telling you you shouldn't use it, but rather pointing out that Steamer is not akin to some sort of "FanGraphs official stance" on a player's future performance like you seemed to be implying.

The search for a left-handed bat is OVAAA

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 01:51 PM) Funny, you mentioned Steamer the other day when someone mentioned a player. You have amazingly interpretted my post as "Steamer is useless." You are incredible.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 01:54 PM) Another laugher considering you were the one mentioning a lack of comprehension. Go back to my posts when Balta asked me what I considered crazy when talking about his next contract. You will see $60-70 million guaranteed would have fit in my definition. Then what the hell are you arguing about? We'd all love him at some absurdly low contract figure that isn't realistic at all. Lol

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 11:23 AM) As I stated but you just ignored, if he put up his career average, we all would be happy. Just pointed out, since fangraphs WAR was so important to you, that their page is projecting a pretty nice season next year. So if you are going to use Fangraphs, you really shouldn't pick and choose which numbers to use. For his career his wRC+ is 125. I don't know if I'd be happy with a 125 wRC+ if we pay him $60-70m over four years or so. Maybe that's where we disagree. To me, his career average isn't enough to justify that price out of a DH, and it comes with more risk than average.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 11:23 AM) As I stated but you just ignored, if he put up his career average, we all would be happy. Just pointed out, since fangraphs WAR was so important to you, that their page is projecting a pretty nice season next year. So if you are going to use Fangraphs, you really shouldn't pick and choose which numbers to use. For his career his wRC+ is 125. Steamer is just the first system to come out for the coming year -- ZiPS is almost universally considered better, and Marcel is usually factored in as well, heavy-handed as that system is. Anyone at FanGraphs would recommend using several systems for context, so it isn't necessarily true to cite Steamer and say "See! FanGraphs says he's good!"

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 09:49 AM) Yet you do the same thing you are ripping me of when you clamour for Russell Martin. GMAB. Adding mediocre players to a roster is not the way to win. Nothing suggests Victor Martinez is a mediocre player. I don't understand. Russell Martin is four years younger than Victor Martinez, and he derives most of his value from defense. How is that similar at all?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 09:33 AM) A lot of people around here were very happy with the 2012 Adam Dunn. Martinez is a far better hitter than Dunn was with the White Sox, and 120 is probably the bottom of what he will put up if he is healthy the next couple of years. IMO it is far riskier spending money on guys like Keppinger and Belisario and Downs and Paulino than guys who can actually help like Martinez. I understand some here either think they are heirs to JR's fortune or want to be the poster that pointed out a bargain that worked out spectacularly, but sometimes the answers are obvious. I enjoy looking at most of those, but think the end result would usually be dissappointment. There were a couple of posts about Torii Hunter. If Martinez gets a 3 year deal, at the end of the 3 years he will be younger than Hunter is now. He didn't fall off a cliff offensively. I pointed out several in another thread who hit well when they were 38 years old. Eventually, if the White Sox want to win, they are going to have to look for something other than bargains. And I pointed out I wouldn't pay Martinez thinking he will repeat his 2014 for 4 seasons. If someone does, and I suspect they might, then I understand, but thinking this guy is going to fall off a cliff because......Paul Konerko, is pretty short-sided. They are different people, different hitters, with different skills and approaches, and different bodies. I think the Sox should examine the medicals and give more than a grab and a cough physical as well. But if those check out, there is no reason not to give him basically what you gave Adam Dunn except maybe for 3 years other than 4 with incentives that make it 4. Were YOU happy with 2012 Adam Dunn? Do you recommend we should try to buy 2012 Adam Dunn at $15m per year for four years? Also, it's NOT riskier trying to buy low on short term guys (excluding Keppinger from your example because he does not fit the mold in any way) because if the worst happens, you can see how easy it was to get those guys off the books. We tried with them, they failed, and they're gone. Our commitments to them have not prevented us from doing anything else. It is, by definition, LESS risky. But it's a strawman to compare the two anyway -- you're not arguing with people who don't want to spend money, you're arguing with people who don;t want to spend money on Victor Martinez. The choice is not "VMart or Felipe Paulino" like you're suggesting. You are correct in saying that eventually the Sox will need to step up and take some risk, but that does NOT mean that we should act like money is burning a hole in our pockets. No one gives a s*** how rich JR is, but we ALL KNOW that there is a cap on the total amount of money the team is going to spend, like it or not, and so we want them to spend it wisely. RE: this line: "but thinking this guy is going to fall off a cliff because......Paul Konerko, is pretty short-sided." Give me a break. Are you going to suggest that Paul Konerko is the only example of late 30's age-related decline?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 06:24 AM) Amazing how you try to spin this. His 86 was when he was injured in 2008. Other than that year and 2013 when he was coming back from missing a season due to an offseason injury and struggled to start but hit .361/.413./500 the second half, his wRC+ has been over 120 every year since 2004 when it was 119. A consistently good hitter who Steamer is projectimg to put up a 139 next year. I am getting this stuff for Fangraphs. I thought you would be impressed, you aren't going to tell me they are full of s*** are you? Dick Allen, please try to read and comprehend my entire argument instead of picking one word out of the first sentence and going on a tangent. The 86 was just factually his lowest, it had almost NOTHING to do with my argument. I did not make an argument that the guy might put up an 86 wRC+ any time soon. I have accepted that the guy has been around 120 his entire career and stated it plainly. He IS a consistently good hitter. But according to everything on the internet so far, he's not commanding a contract in line with a 120 wRC+ DH. That's that's the issue. I don't hate the guy, I just don't want to pay him like he's going to put up a 166 wRC+ for four years when he isn't even likely to do it once.

QUOTE (LDF @ Nov 2, 2014 -> 05:30 PM) I am NOT saying that he took and special vitamins, but all he needed to do is take it last yr so he can max out his contract. after that is done, he doesn't take it again. "oh well his age took over for his lower offensive stats" I don't think it was drug-related at all, I think he just had a really awesome, non-repeatable year. He IS a really good hitter, but it's just impossible to rationally argue he's THIS good. And unfortunately, the level of his recent performance is going to drive his salary requirements, and his age make him a higher risk than normal anyway. I mean someone else around here said it perfectly a while back: Oh, he's a really good hitter though? So was Paul Konerko. Eventually, age catches up. If Victor had put up another 125 wRC+ and was looking for 2/24m without draft pick compensation, then I think he'd be a really reasonable risk to take. But if all these rumors are true, 4/65m or whatever is just such a huge gamble for a guy that has a lot of red flags and, to be honest, isn't likely to "put us over the top" at this point anyway.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 2, 2014 -> 01:58 PM) I don't want anything to do with him. Bad age, bad injury history, definite draft pick compensation, position limited, and coming off the best year of his long career in a time when there is certainly no reason to believe his skills have suddenly blossomed. No reason to believe he can repeat what he just did, but he'll get paid like he's expected to do just that. Let's let some other team make that mistake. QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 2, 2014 -> 03:38 PM) Considering he had his finest season at 35 I wouldn't put much into what typically happens. He was down the first half of 2013 after missing 2012 but has been on fire the last year and a half. Sure there is risk. But this gamble makes sense as long as it doesn't go crazy. And 35-year old 125 wRC+ DHs get like 2yr/$24m. If that's where we are, then it's a different discussion. Before last year, Victor Martinez's career, offensively, spanned from 86 wRC+ to 130 wRC+. Last year, he put up 166 wRC+. That's SO much better. Even if you ignore the possibility of age-related decline, you have got to be suspicious at a guy who suddenly hits 40% better after 12 years of remarkably consistent performance. So when you say it's "worth the risk," I really don't understand. I mean EVERY free agent presents a risk, I'd argue that if one was worth the risk, it wouldn't be one that DOESN'T have so many obvious signs that his performance was flukey. I'm not saying we all wouldn't like 2014 VMart in our lineup, but that's just not what is going to happen if we sign him. It's the same thing with Shields. They've been awesome, but we can't afford to push the chips in on guys that are obviously riskier than the others.

QUOTE (woods of ypres @ Nov 2, 2014 -> 12:00 AM) Just say no to Vmart. Amen