Eminor3rd

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 06:08 PM) Some times I really hate advanced stats, because there is no way those two are in the same stratosphere offensively or defensively. Though those numbers are distorted by going two years instead of one. I don't know about defense, but Markakis is projected to be worse by advanced defense at least. I think it's at least worth considering that because of the nature of De Aza's mistakes, we all have the perception that he's much worse than he really is. Offensively though,VL has a great point. Steamer has Markakis projected for 109 wRC+ and De Aza projected for 106 wRC+. Going to a three year sample (because 2012 was ADA's first full season with us), you have this: Markakis 2012: 126 2013: 88 2014: 106 De Aza 2012: 106 2013: 98 2014: 94 I don't think that anyone disagrees that Markakis is better, but it isn't by nearly as much as you'd think, at least from an overall production standpoint. All of that said, the minor difference probably says much more about us underrating De Aza than it does about us overrating Markakis. To me, Markakis is a good play if and only if you think his defense is at least average. Steamer has him projected as a slilghtly below average player next year because it has him projected at 10 runs below average on defense. If you assume he plays scratch defense, all of a sudden you're in the realm of 2.5 - 3 fWAR, which is a nice, above-average player. Which, consequently, is what De Aza was most of his time with us.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 05:23 PM) You know, if you are going to insult SoxPride and his ideas, the least thing you could do is come up with something better than this when asked to show off your own foolproof plan. +1

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 03:10 PM) Thank God you are not the GM, and you don't want Cargo the millionth f***ing time, he makes no sense for the Sox and he is the definition of a bad contract. He's not even a guy you could buy low on and take a risk since the contract is so big. Lol, I'm not sure I agree with all of it, but I thought it was a pretty reasonable set of ideas at fairly realistic costs. Assuming rational cost, what is your plan that is so drastically different than this?

Thing about Markakis: I legitimately don't think we know if his defense is elite or noticeably below average. There's a MAJOR disconnect between his reputation and the advanced stats. He's been CONSISTENTLY below average by 5 or more runs for five of the last six years by UZR, which is more than enough of a sample. I tend to feel like reputations die slowly, so I think I side with the defensive metrics in this case. Having obviously not seen nearly enough of him to have an opinion of my own.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 04:03 PM) Jay Bruce would be a nice piece to buy low on. He's a 30 HR left-handed bat that owns a 9.4 BB%. His defense is all over the place, sometimes good, sometimes bad. He strikes out more than you'd like, but he also won't clog the bases. He is owed $12M, $12.5, and then has an option for $13M in 2017. He was worth -1.1 WAR last year, 4.0 WAR the year before, had a career high of 4.9 WAR at age 23, and will turn 28 right after the season starts next year. Like I said, the Reds MAY be willing to sell low on him and want to move that money. The only problem is that their OF is already pretty weak with Billy Hamilton being the only longterm piece there. Their other OFers include Ryan Ludwick and Skip Schumaker. However, 2 of the Reds 3 top prospects are OFers, so they may be willing to let one of those guys replace Bruce next season. Yeah I threw his name out there in another thread, so I'm on board with the thought. His deal is backloaded and the Reds may be looking to rebuild. The only issue is I realyl have NO idea how to gauge his value. Idk if it's a buy low or not. But yeah, he's a guy whose tires must be kicked! Upon. Or whatever.

I have an irrational love for Tabata, so I would totally be down with that. Having said that, losing both Tabata AND Snider depletes their depth quite a bit, so I'd expect them to be happy to move one, but probably not both.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 02:59 PM) I knew someone would catch that as soon as I posted it. Nah, one decade is fair for "the model." They failed for longer than that, but this current GMDM attempt is closer to a decade.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 03:35 PM) Im saying no to giving up that type of package and taking all that money on top of it. As others have pointed out, CarGo is injury plagued and that is a lot for a guy that cant play 150-162 games. I'm just saying it would get it done. I'm on the fence as to whether or not it's good for the team. Our front office would have to have reason to feel good about his medicals, of course.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 02:15 PM) I don't think there is anyway the Rockies take that offer. None of those guys are blue chip prospects. To get CarGo, you may have to build a package around Tim Anderson, someone they may like when they want to trade Tulo eventually. I think it's a viable offer if you assume you're taking all the money off of their hands.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 02:17 PM) Fielding percentage is a horrendous metric to evaluate defense. Using advanced defensive metrics, the Sox this past year, ranked 28th in team defense (Astros / Indians were worse) with our defense costing us 48 runs. The Royals defense ranked 1st and saved 74.8 runs.

Yeah, our defense is GARBAGE in the corners. Abreu, Gillaspie, Garcia, Viciedo. Yikes.

IMO, the Royals are clouding our judgement, everyone. The reason they are winning is because they are currently doing EVERYTHING better than everyone. To me, we should think of our priorities in terms of the holes we need to fill, and we should fill the holes with guys that are good at as much stuff as we can afford. A run scored is a run saved. vice versa. Priority 1 = corner OF bat, preferably left-handed. Ideally, it replace Viciedo. If not, it platoons with Viciedo. Move Garcia from RF to LF if necessary. Priority 2 = acquire many pitchers, both starting and relieving. Reclamation projects with upside, young castoffs with upside, undervalued assets, etc. To me, we have only two guys locked in the rotation next year. Noesi, as much as we're impressed, ended up with a 4.75 ERA (4.83 FIP). Danks can be DFA'd for all I care. We'll find a place for Rodon when we're ready. For the reclamation model to work, you need to bring in four guys for two spots so that when you end up with Felipe Paulino, you have Jason Hammel to use instead. Same with RPs: the list of guys who are good relievers for more than a few years is extremely, saddeningly small. Get good, cheap arms with warts and expect 25% of them to stick under your tutelage. Priority 3 = acquire good catcher that is here for several years. Flowers will make a good backup. Prioritize defense/handling over offense. It can be a veteran or a young guy, whatever.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 10:00 AM) Well, Hawk the idiot, who the game has passed by, said KC had the best bullpen in the league in March. They have had a great bullpen for a few years now. But that was when it included Soria and when Tim Collins was a monster. Hawk didn't see Wade Davis coming.

KC also BARELY made the postseason. I think any time you come to a conclusion where you say any of pitching/hitting/defense/baserunning is any more important than the rest, you're overthinking it and you're not making a useful conclusion. A good team needs to be able to do all of those things, and if they don't they're going to struggle to overcome it. KC's weakness is offense, and because of that they snuck in with the wild card. Now, during the postseason, they have more homeruns than EVERY other team. The pitching in defense isn't trumping offense in the postseason -- it's being tacked onto a monster offense that didn't exist before. KC is a solid team that is playing hot at the right time.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 07:32 AM) Melky has a ton of warts. It is very understandable why some wouldn't want the White Sox to sign him. That's not why it would ruin greg's offseason though. I'm not real high on him either, honestly. But it's because I'm not sure how good he is.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Oct 16, 2014 -> 06:34 AM) Why would that ruin your offseason? Because greg is more concerned about our players being likeable than he is about our team winning games.

QUOTE (LDF @ Oct 15, 2014 -> 01:14 PM) and I will still continue to say, he may surprise many next yr. I still think he will rebound. I am done with danks discussion. I am really battling an uphill battle. keep up the good discussion. I hope you're right, I just don't see any reason to believe. Danks is a command-based pitcher, and from what is now a pretty generous amount of "rebound time," he can only touch his old velocity of low 90's by sacrificing his command. He's comfortably in the mid to upper 80's. When he's on, it'll play, but the margin for error is SO slim there that if he's having even a slightly mediocre night, he's going to give up BOMBS. I predict 4-5 good starts out of him next year that make you drool a bit, but also 4-5 total meltdowns and 15-20 starts of 4.50-5.00 ERA. To be effective he really needs to be near his best every night, and that's just too much to ask of anyone.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Oct 15, 2014 -> 01:02 PM) I did not know that about Gillaspie, there goes that... Let's put it this way. Since Belt is likely to fill the LF void left by Morse, the Sox will likely have to over pay to get Belt and that's not likely to happen either. I would love to have Belt but the idea is just not very reasonable. Montas could be used as part of a package for Travis Snyder tho. Belt: You're right, prob not available. Just saying that's the TYPE of guy to target with a guy like Montas. Snider: Holy god Hahn would be instantly fired if he traded Montas for Snider.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Oct 15, 2014 -> 11:25 AM) Those are 3rd tier guys. We have one of our own - Danks. Danks is not even close to a third-tier SP today. He is replacement level at $14m per annum.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Oct 15, 2014 -> 12:23 PM) Trading the little bit of young pitching we have is not advisable. That's how we got into this mess. Sox couldnt' even cobble together a decent starting 5 last year, not to mention a bullpen. Sure as heck don't need another Swisher trade. We're not talking about trading our guys for like Matt Kemp or anything, we're talking about cost-controlled, mid-to-late twenties guys that fill long-term holes, like Brandon Belt. Building around pitching prospects is incredibly risky business -- or at least riskier than building around positional guys. To me, we have enough holes to fill on the roster that I'll gladly trade some risky upside for a bird in the hand, so long as said bird is controllable with upside.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Oct 15, 2014 -> 09:55 AM) Sub .400 SLG the past two years. If you hit him second, that's fine, but that doesn't cut it for a guy who might hit 3rd, 5th, or 6th on this team. Steamer projects a 109 wRC+. You wouldn't take something like that batting 5th or 6th?

QUOTE (LDF @ Oct 15, 2014 -> 07:48 AM) I truly believe in how the sox brass will identify the priority of their needs. I see the sox going internal with Phegley or thru a trade. if 1 of the other posters who is very good with the advance stats, maybe they can answer this. I believe Flowers had a better 2 half than he did in the first half. does anyone have a guess why if this is true? You are correct, and substantially: 1st half: 61 wRC+ 2nd half: 149 wRC+ Also, by month: Apr: 132 May: 75 Jun: 8 (lol) Jul: 103 Aug: 97 Sept: 174 http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?p...amp;season=2014

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Oct 14, 2014 -> 07:23 PM) As I said in another thread, with Morse heading to FA and leaving LF vacant it makes too much sense for the Giants to put Belt in LF. But for conversations sake, Lets say he can be had for the right price. I agree that Montas would raise an eye but what else do the Sox have to send with Montas that the Sox aren't trying to hold onto? I wonder if there's any chance they would have interest in Gillaspie since it looks like Panda is going to FA. I don't think Gillaspie/ Montas makes a trade but could be intriguing enough for trade discussions to continue/ get started. Didn't Gillaspie have a public falling out with SFG before they dumped him? I doubt they'd want him back. Also, I think it would take more. Like Montas/Semien/random flyer or two. Maybe even a stronger #2 piece than Semien, actually.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 15, 2014 -> 09:09 AM) A large part of his negative view is his low baseball IQ in the OF. If that wasn't there, it would change everything. To me it is rather like saying if Paul Konerko was fast, would you like him better. Well sure, but that ain't gonna happen. I was just responding to the post that said Rasmus has been essentially Viciedo at the plate 2 of the last 3 years. I was making the point that you can take that level of offense if it comes with high-end defense.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Oct 14, 2014 -> 09:34 PM) Rasmus' D would be nice, but offensively he's basically been Viceido 3 of the last 4 years. If he comes rather cheap( I'm talkin 7-8N) I guess it wouldn't be the worst signing though. But if Viciedo played high-end defense, would you dislike him so much? I know I wouldn't.