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Eminor3rd

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Everything posted by Eminor3rd

  1. QUOTE (LDF @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 01:18 PM) I like that, the only problem I have is to acquire Ethier with a trade off for Danks. nah, the only way is if dodgers will sweeten the deal with dodgers sending a prospect. ok but don't get me wrong, we all know that the dodgers will not include Pederson nor Seager. Ethier is more useful than Danks, and costs about $20m more. I'd ask the Dodgers to split the difference in cash and make the deal today. A platoon partner for Viciedo is way more valuable to us than 200 more innings of 5.00 - 5.50 ERA ball, IMO.
  2. QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 01:44 PM) Scott Downs had a positive WAR? QUOTE (Charlie Haeger's Knuckles @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 01:50 PM) ...enough said. All that means is he performed slightly better than a random minor league scrub would have been expected to perform. And when I say slightly, I mean effectively exactly the same. He had a 0.1 fWAR.
  3. QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 12:48 PM) Hawk and Stone mentioned Cabrera has been intentionally walked 10 times this season. Victor has been intentionally walked 27 coming into today's game. A case against the protection doesn't mean a thing crowd. And that is with JD Martinez putting up numbers probably close to equal to Miggy's. Reputations matter as well. How does the fact that the guy that leads the league in IBB bats in FRONT of a guy having an awesome season support the idea of protection? Doesn't that simply support the idea that the best hitters get mroe IBBs regardless of who hits behind them?
  4. QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 10:30 AM) I don't think we need the additional handicap of a NOW boycott of Sox games to go along with another "Hawkism." Lol, I know. It was a joke. No one should ever say something like that on the air.
  5. QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 08:34 AM) This is hysterical. If Rick Hahn traded Matt Davidson and he hit .199 with 164 strikeouts in AAA for Arizona and acquired Addison Reed, the people who still say they would rather have Davidson, would not be saying that. Matt Davidson sucks. He cannot make contact against AAA pitchers. Look at all the high k guys who are at least anywhere near mediocre at the major league level and look at their k rates in AAA. Not only can't he hit, he is bad defensively. I also love the "about to become expensive" line. What, expensive like Belisario or Downs or Lindstrom? Get off it, he isn't going to be expensive unless he is lights out, and if he was lights out, it sure would look good in the White Sox bullpen. A lot better than some guy flailing away in Charlotte. I think you're missing the point of the arguments that are being made. Or at least what I'm making. Based on what we knew when the trade was made, I'll make it every time. If you told me Davidson would have about as bad a season as we could imagine, I wouldn't want him. But the idea of trading Addison Reed for a top-100 caliber 3B prospect in AAA is fantastic no matter which way you turn it. Now, if you want to say the White Sox missed the boat on the scouting and maybe even argue that the only reason we could make the deal is that AZ knew he was overrated, then I think that's legit. But it's separate from the idea of making the deal based on what we knew at the time.
  6. QUOTE (iamshack @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 10:10 AM) I wouldn't be able to watch Hardy and his girly throwing motion I would love it if Hahn just went out and said something like that at a press conference. Reporter: "Now that you've traded franchise cornerstone Alexei Ramirez, how do you plan to address the SS issue? There are obviously internal options, but some have speculated that free agent JJ Hardy might be a good fit." Hahn: "Free agency is an avenue we'll explore, but JJ Hardy isn't really on our radar. Collectively, we simply wouldn't be able to watch his girly throwing motion all year."
  7. QUOTE (Pants Rowland @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 09:58 AM) I'd prefer to beat Detroit and then let KC walk all over us. Make Detroit play the one-game WC rather than KC. I don't know why, but for some reason I clearly hate KC more than Detroit this year. I'd rather see KC fail. No matter how much I think about it, though, I don't have a justifiable reason to feel that way.
  8. QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 09:32 PM) How on earth can you say he looks like he's guessing ? And is that a bad thing ? Most hitters guess at pitches . No one can hit a +FB with just reaction time alone . You have to be looking for it. Educated guessing is what separate's the good hitters from the mediocre. Know the game situation ,work the count , see ass many pitches as possible, know pitcher's tendencies by studying film and you can guess pretty damn good a lot of the time. It's being a smart hitter but it's still guessing. More specifically, then: "Guessing and being unable to properly react to guessing incorrectly." All guys guess, yes, but good hitters respond as well. Mediocre and bad hitters have to guess right or intentionally sit on a specific pitch to be successful. If Avi never learns to sit on pitch X but have an approach to react to pitches Y or Z, even if it's just fouling those ones off, he will only be a mediocre hitter.
  9. QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 03:58 AM) That's assuming they DON'T go after Hanley Ramirez or JJ Hardy, depending on whether his option is picked up by BALT. The Tigers will be trying to unload Iglesias or Suarez (likely Iglesias, so that will undercut Alexei's value a bit as well). There are a couple of other options in play as well, such as Jed Lowrie, trying to keep Stephen Drew, etc. The Mariners have another Brendan Ryan type in Brad Miller they'll attempt to trade, since they've found a better offensive SS who doesn't hit with a wet newspaper. Eduardo Escobar will be available too, as the Twins are likely to move Salazar back to SS when/if Buxton and Hicks come back healthy. I don't think Hardy has an option. If I'm right, he's the only comparable alternative to Alexei on the market. They won't want to pay Hanley to decline for them -- I think Cashman has learned his lesson the pasty couple years about fielding old, injury prone has-beens. The other guys you listed are very clearly worse than Hardy/Alexei, except Lowrie, who won't be available.
  10. QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 11:25 PM) How do you think one finds a replacement for a player? There are very few options for this. 1) The team rids itself of the player and acquires a similar or higher quality player externally, via trade or free agency. This seems to be the solution you advocate in practically every situation. This is also the solution that gives you a crapton of untenable payroll commitments eventually, if you go the free agent route, or leaves you with a barren farm system if you go the trade route. 2) The team rids itself of the player and finds a replacement internally. From your posts, I gather that you find this option unpalatable in practically all situations, as you seem to value minor league baseball players at roughly the same level the average person values toilet paper, virtually useless, save for the exact right situation. The problem with this line of thinking is that the only way to turn talented young baseball players into effective major league contributors is by allowing them to get the experience they need to develop into those roles. 3) The team keeps the player until the player's value is less than that of a league average or worse replacement, then replaces him either internally or externally with the best available option. You also seem to be okay with this strategy, but to me, it leaves a lot of value on the table, because this strategy precludes "selling high" on a player, which is when you will be able to maximize value. I also have to disagree with your assessment of the team's prospects of winning next year should they decide to start Semien at SS. There is a chance that he will be a terrible starter, but I think there is a higher chance that he'll cut down on his K rate, improve his BB total, keep his ISO in the .125-.150 range, and be a .700-.750 OPS SS. That's at least league average, and certainly not enough of a black hole to justify keeping Ramirez over maximizing his value. QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Sep 24, 2014 -> 12:54 AM) As for the thread premise, here goes: DO acquire at least two hitters, preferably OF, one of which should be LH and ideally both starter caliber. If I were doing the shopping, I would be looking at potential guys and reclamation projects here. A guy who the front office thinks could be a middle of the order bat is a must, but other than that I would look for good defense and low K rates. One of these holes may be able to be filled internally with Semien depending on how okay you are with he and Sanchez both playing major roles in 2015. DO acquire a solid, #2-3 type RHSP, and a couple of quality bullpen pieces. Doing this will place the Sox in the best position they can be in to contend next year, while also giving some flexibility at the trade deadline if things break poorly, as they did this year. Doing this will also give the Sox a starting 5 that can at least compete for the first half without having to force their hand on Rodon, assuming that you believe that two of Noesi, Danks, Carroll, and Bassitt can give you quality 4 and 5 guys. The other plus from that group is the two that don't make the rotation may be able to be used to improve the bullpen, which will need several upgrades from any and all sources possible for this team to compete next year. DO shop everyone on the ML team except for Sale, Q, Abreu, Eaton, A. Garcia, and anyone under the age of 25. To me, if the price is right on anyone else, you take the deal. The only players that would require a major return in my book would be Ramirez and Gillaspie, because I feel that the production of either would be particularly difficult to replace, and would create a ripple effect of platoon problems, unless you feel Semien can replace Gillaspie's production. Also, if you can sucker someone into taking Danks's contact, great, but unlikely. Viciedo would be a great guy to move as well, especially if you can get anything of value for him. DO NOT hand John Danks a 2015 rotation slot. To me, if the team goes out and signs a #2-3 caliber starter, then rotation slots 4 and 5 should be completely up for grabs. I have a feeling Noesi will pull down one of those slots because he has pitched fairly well for the White Sox this year, but I would like to see Bassitt, maybe Carroll, and hell even Erik Johnson get a shot at a starting slot. I hate the idea of making decisions on sunk costs, and to me, the only reason Danks would even be considered for the 2015 rotation is the sunk cost of his contract. If that's the case, then make him the long man and give a guy like Bassitt a shot to develop. That would be ideal to me, with the eventuality being that Rodon takes one of the 4 or 5 slots when he is ready. DO NOT spend big money in free agency on an old, "proven" bat. Signing a guy like Victor Martinez would set this team back in its goals as he is 36 and will get WAY too much on the open market. Paying a 36 year old $20 million per year for 3 years is obscenely stupid unless you feel that that player can put your team on a championship contending level. Without significant other spending, Victor Martinez would not do that for the White Sox. Nor would Russell Martin, nor any of the other 32-36 year olds available. DO NOT go into "Win Now" mode. This is a ~75 win team. To be a playoff team, it will take a ~15-20 win improvement. It would be nigh impossible to gain that ground this off-season, and it would be bad to do so for the overarching long term goal of building a consistent championship contender. Gaining another 5-10 games this off-season should be the goal, with the full force of "Win Now" mode coming into effect after the 2015 season. Obviously, that doesn't mean start trading away the farm at that point, but I feel as though 2016 is going to be the realistic beginning of the White Sox competitive window with this core. Where have you been all my life? Thoughtful post, I agree with all the premises. I still want Russell Martin because I think there are objective reasons to believe that he will age well, but am aware that the price may be too high. You're right -- you only pay for the career year if you think it will happen again, and I don't. I need to spend time in other forums.
  11. QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 02:16 PM) Sure, as long as he has the right platoon partner. Precisely.
  12. QUOTE (Butter Parque @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 12:12 PM) I'd sign Denorfia to a 1 or 2 year deal to hit lefties. You could also sign Rasmus or trade for another lefty outfield bat and platoon the two. Definitely will help our OF defense. I think Denorfia would be a great under-the-radar FA signing for our OF.
  13. QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 12:07 PM) So a 33 year old SS won't be part of the next White Sox contender but the Sox should open the check book for a 32 year old catcher and be willing to go 4 years and $60 million. You have been saying Alexei will slip for at least 2 year. Why wouldn't that apply to Martin? I thought I expounded on it a bit in my post, but I'll summarize again: unlike SS, the parts of catcher defense that I consider most critical (game-calling, pitch-framing) are shown to improve with experience, presumably because they are more related to knowledge of the game and muscle memory. His arm may get worse and his bat may get worse, but he'll still be an excellent asset to our pitching staff, and he's got a pretty long way to fall with the arm/bat anyhow. Also, to clarify again: I have been saying Alexei WILL slip for at least two years, but in every instance, I am referring to him slipping within the next few years, NOT the very next season. If you are implying that I have been calling for Alexei's demise over the past couple years, you are incorrect. I think Alexei is good now and will be pretty good in 2015, but I think there's a good chance he's not real good in 2016 and an even better chance in 2017, and those are the years I think we might have a real chance at a championship. Make no mistake -- Alexei's value is propped up by his defense. despite his hot start to this year at the plate, he's been roughly league average overall, and that makes this year substantially better than the last few. If he loses a step on the field and puts up an 85 wRC+, he's suddenly not too special. If Martin loses a tick on the arm and drops down to 100 wRC+, he's still pretty special.
  14. QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 11:33 AM) I like the trade Alexei part , though if you rid the Sox of Viciedo and Alexei . Abreu has no countrymen except Nieto who is most likely in the minors next year. Probably won't matter much to a hitter like Abreu but it's something to discuss. Alexei's coming off a good season and the time to trade him is now. Leury at SS though, yuckie ! Remember Jose Inglesias is coming back from injury next year ( http://www.sportsoverdose.com/mlb-players/jose-iglesias ) and that Suarez kid has looked pretty damn good at SS for the Tigers. Too bad its inter-division but Tigers might be willing to move one or the other now that Suarez has held his own. Not sure about the Russell Martin thing meaning highly doubtful we get him since so many other teams have deeper pockets and catching is at such a premium. Is this a career year for Flowers or has all the studying he's done of great hitters paid off into a league average catcher , which frankly, would be fine with me because... We need more a few more good relief pitchers. Is that altering the pitching plan ? Bottom feeding for pitchers isn't what I'd call a plan if you want to compete. Maybe Erik Johnson can rebound as a starter or try him in the pen. But Sox do have some great arms in the system but arrival time is so crucial when you have guys like Sale and Abreu . Can't wait too long . I was wondering what teams have benefited from that approach ? Maybe the Cubs come to mind but I'd like some from the AL because ,frankly , it's a different game in the NL . I'm always leery of getting NL pitchers. I wanted Ellsbury last year but I do like Sierra. The guy is a tool shed. Seems great ( or annoying depending how you respond to his love) in the dugout and has played well for the Sox . Sort of suffered since trying to build Viciedo's value. The Sox rebuild really suffered a big blow this year despite several guys like Abreu, Eaton and, Gillaspie all emerging but about 8 guys you wanted to see emerge sucking or getting injured. I'd like Saunders from the Mariners and hopefully they are willing to move him if they still want Viciedo ( ha right) . If the Sox do want to compete next year then a bat like VMart is a must. Again will probably be outbid but his numbers are astounding. How fast could he really fall off ? I think Abreu could deal with losing his Cuban countrymen if he had VMART next to him in the lineup. Try pitching around Abreu now suckers ! You get to face VMArt instead of Conor or Avi. If no VMart then the Sox seem to be putting a lot of weight that your favorite ( ) Avi Garcia will produce and/ or improve the defense and relief pitching a lot , which then might preclude trading Alexei. Of course we would need another quality starter then also. A lot of directions this can go. The 1st major trade or signing will point us to what Hahn has in mind . All good food for thought.
  15. QUOTE (LDF @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 11:20 AM) for my part that will be a bad trade. what are the sox going for Crawford or Ethier? their contract is what in yrs and salary. there is no way that will be cost effective, even if the dodger help with the salary. the sox will be not to swift if that is all they want, they could be asking for a prospects as well. The idea is it would be mostly a wash. The reality is that we need a LF, so it would make sense for us if the money was close to even. But why would the Dodgers do it? Maybe if they think they can turn Danks into an effective reliever?
  16. QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 11:29 AM) This is why I'm not that down on Flowers. Even with the highest career strikeout rate of all time, I think he provides enough to justify 400 or so plate appearances a year, the staff is comfortable with him, and he has turned into a really solid catcher. I think he's a really solid BACKUP -- maybe even an awesome backup. And, in general, an awesome backup is a guy you can live with as a starter if you absolutely have to. I'm with you there. But I also think it's the easiest and most substantial upgrade we can make on the roster. Except maybe LF.
  17. QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 10:26 AM) I'll go with more general guidelines as opposed to more confined and restrictive moves you've made. QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 10:26 AM) YEPS 1) Do attempt to buy low on talented players. These are players who will be discounted somewhat who won't require long-term deals and can provide some insane value both for the Sox and on the trade market. The optimal guy on the free agent market is Colby Rasmus as he fits the Sox needs for another outfielder while offering insane upside to the Sox. He's very much a TTO player, which will turn a lot of guys off, but the upside is high enough to warrant a gamble. 2) Do whatever you can to trade John Danks. He's been discussed quite often, and at the deadline I was on the side of keeping him as it didn't make sense to eat money and get rid of him, but I think this team is a lot closer to competing than even I realized. They're likely going to end up eating most of his contract, but there are ways around that, primarily eating another bad contract that the Sox can find some value in. When looking at possible returns, I look at the Sox needs - outfielder, rotation arm, and bullpen arms - and figure out which is most a trade that can be made. I don't know the exact team, but someone with bad contracts and a need for starting pitching. My gut right now tells me Philadelphia is a possible place to trade with a guy like Domonic Brown coming back, but who knows. 3) In coordination with 2, do bring in a good starting pitcher. Again, this is not shedding all the prospects and bringing in a guy like Cueto or signing James Shields to a mega contract, but acquire a solid 3 WAR starting pitcher, essentially a quality #3. Even if you have to spend a bit of money, this will be worth it as the additions of Rodon and said guy can add a total of perhaps 6 WAR to the rotation. That is a team that is competing. NOPES 1) Do not spend a lot of money on part-time players. This includes relievers. With the amount of decent depth the club as well as the number of options the Sox should be able to acquire for cheap, there is no reason to give a Keppinger or Linebrink type of contract out this offseason. Just continue looking for talented non-tenders and waiver claims and keep moving forward. This does not mean don't show interest - there are guys out there who would be worth multi-year deals at the right price (such as Andrew Miller) - but be cautious. 2) Similar to 1 in the yeps, do not buy players at their highest value. This kind of works against Russell Martin, who I think is a special case, but in general, this will only result in negative cost-value. The Sox, currently, are not at a point where they need a guys such as that. Perhaps following the 2015 or 2016 season they can look towards those moves. 3) Do not "blow the load" this offseason. There is no need to spend a huge sum of money on a free agent, nor is there any reason to trade a huge package of minor leaguers for a major leaguer. Keep the ship steady, make incremental upgrades, and put forth the most talented roster you can without making brash or irrational moves. The Sox are not ready for that yet. Regarding Danks, I jsut don't see any situation where anyone would give up ANYTHING for him. He's damaged goods. Without his contract, he simply wouldn't be in the Majors right now. I can't come up with a scneario where some other team would want to invest to give him a shot, even if the money was covered. Like The Dodgers are better off using Ethier purely as a pinch hitter than having Danks in the mix. The Phillies might have an argument to give up Howard, but why the hell would we want Howard, and I'm not sure Danks would bring enough value to justify Amaro admitting his mistake like that.
  18. QUOTE (Jake @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 10:27 AM) I'm very conflicted about what to do about catcher. If not Martin, who I think will ultimately be overpaid, then you're faced with guys who are probably not clearly better options than Flowers. While I can get behind investing in Martin, the main alternative I'd endorse pursuing is getting a younger guy in here. This might be a stipulation for trading Alexei. On the lower end, a guy like Wilin Rosario would be interesting to have in here - could be a Tank-Rosario swap? I agree with that -- I think the first thing you do the second the WS ends is get on the phone and try to get a good, controllable catcher. Russell Martin would be a back-up plan to that that I'd be very happy with if I was Hahn. And if he isn't going to cost me $100m or something insane. However, while I'd absolutely trade Viciedo for ANYTHING, I don't think Rosario should be our target. I'm of the belief that catcher defense is mroe important than we can quantify, and Rosario is barely a catcher. But yeah, if they'd take Viciedo for some reason...
  19. QUOTE (glangon @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 11:02 AM) Yeps 1) Bring in a proven closer - A proven closer will set up the guys we already have to roles in the pen. We don't need to do a lot to the pen, but bringing in a closer would put the likes of Putnam, Petricka and Guerra in proper roles in the pen rather than being shuffled about to fill in. 2) Sign 1 big name starter - The rotation next year looks to be Sale, Q, Danks and Noesi. Bringing in one big name righty starter would put Q to 3, Noesi to 4 and Danks to 5. We're stuck with Danks contract, we may as well make the best of it 3) Sign a Left Handed Left Fielder - More than likely, Tank will play DH next season with Jordan Danks / Moises Sierra likely to be the back up outfielder, one outfielder should be enough with Eaton and Avi in the outfield already Nopes 1) Don't bring in a proven catcher. Flowers has done the job this year and seems to handle the pitching staff well and with Nieto / Phegley as back up, we aren't too bad going forward. If we are trading pieced away, then I'd rather see us bringing in young talented catchers to come through the system. 2) Don't put Rodon in the rotation. I'd like to see him as either a leftie in the pen or another year in Charlotte before he comes up to give him some more experience. 3) Don't trade away Alexei. His defense has been great this year and with Carlos Sanchez at 2nd base and Marcus Semien as the utility guy, our infield looks and can hit better than when we had Beckham. Plus. I would like to see Micah spend some more time in AAA Lol, this one is funny to me because it's almost literally the exact opposite of mine. It's almost as if you took direct counterpoint to everything in my post. Not saying your ideas are bad, maybe you have the right plan. But I must say: with all due respect, I could not possibly disagree more with the plan you laid out. Also, did you vote YES on independence?!
  20. QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 10:58 AM) Agreed with everything except for Martin. If Martin would cost 15M per year then I would have to say no. I would rather stick with Flowers and use spend that 15M per year on a couple of nice relievers for the pen. I guess my thinking is Flowers plus two solid relievers makes the team better than one Martin. I'm not sure who replaces Alexei. Could try to sign Steven Drew on the cheap and use him to bridge the gap to Anderson while Drew uses the Sox to rebuild his value. Drew would give the Sox another lefty bat in the lineup while providing some decent defense. Otherwise I like where you're coming from on this upcoming off season. I love the idea of 4 OF's to rotate with the DH. Should the Sox decide to put Semien at 3rd, Gillaspie could become apart of that 4 man rotation and allow Ventura to use Gillaspie mostly against RHP. Assuming Tank would be traded, there would still be room to bring in a higher salary player via trade to fit into that 4 man OF rotation of Gillaspie, Eaton, Avi and whomever. I actually kind of love the idea of throwing Stephen Drew in the mix in the event of an Alexei trade. Drew has been so abjectly bad that (1) there's no way he'll get paid anything significant and (2) there's no way he won't accidentally be better. That would be the type of signing where if one of the kids comes up and grabs the ML SS job by the nuts in the spring, you're fine just DFA'ing Drew.
  21. QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 09:25 AM) 1) I think we're going to get priced out of the Russell Martin sweepstakes by a team like the Dodgers. We very well may get outbid on Martin, I agree. If it gets into the $80m range, we should bow out. And it may. Also, I think what you seem to be implying about 2015 is it may be a "domino issue," in that if you decide to do one move, a bunch of others need to follow. I think that makes sense. LIke if you sign Shield or VMart, you should also try to sign the other, and you should also not trade Alexei, etc. QUOTE (iamshack @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 09:30 AM) Bravo, bravo! Thanks, friend! QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 09:32 AM) I've been high on VMart and if they can get him for 2 year with an option for a 3rd I'd do it all day. I can really care less about the inability to have a rotating DH. You have a rotating DH when you don't have a good DH. I think VMart has at least 2 good years in em. There's just no way he's going to come at 2 years. QUOTE (bmags @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 09:39 AM) I don't see a SS in the minors until Tim Anderson that I think can match 80% of Alexei. I still think we should hold on until then and "get nothing". I just don't think Leury's bat out of SS is going to ruin this team the next year or two if you're right and no one in the minors can stick at SS. A good bat at SS is a luxury but not a requirement. The DEFENSE is a requirement, and I think Leury has it. I'm okay with that floor in the worst case.
  22. A different take on an offseason thread that I hope will invite some thoughtful responses. The rules: First name three moves the Sox absolutely need to MAKE this offseason, then name three moves the Sox absolutely need to AVOID this offseason. To wit: Three YEPS: 1. Sign Russell Martin at anything up to 4yr/$60m -- He will NOT ever be as good at the plate as he was this year, but that's okay because he was a MONSTER this year and doesn't need to be to make the deal worth it. He has a career high 145 wRC+ this season, but all we need from him is about 100, and his career line is 106. THat would make him an elite defender with a league average bat who also happens to bring Veteran Leadership™ to the table. Even if his bat begins to decline immediately, game-calling and pitch-framing tend to improve with experience, and having that kind of glove back there witha bat that doesn't kill you is worth its weight in blood diamonds. Admittedly, this was a much more attractive option when I first started clamoring for it midseason before the national media caught the scent, and he's going to be expensive as a result, but when you take a look around at the free agent classes of the next couple years and try to find ones that are going to pay dividends both immediately AND going forward, this is one of the few that jump out. And if paying Martin $14m a year is your big money acquisition, you're not really risking much, especially with our current payroll commitments being so low. 2. Trade Alexei Ramirez, probably to the Yankees -- I love Alexei. I really do. I have bragged about Alexei being the most underrated player in the game to all my friends for about four years now. But there are two reasons that it's time to move on: (1) he will be 33 years old, meaning that his defense will most likely decline as soon as next season, meaning that he will NOT be the player he is today when we need him the most a couple years down the line, and (2) we have a glut of MI prospects in the advanced levels of our minors, all of whom need a shot to stick at the majors. It is the position we are best able to fill with AT LEAST a stopgap. The market will be ripe this offseason as several big names will be looking for a SS, most notably the Yankees (who not only want a SS, but also one that will be an immediate contributor but won't require a long-term commitment, which is EXACTLY what Alexei is), who just happen to have a bunch of extra decent catching prospects laying around, which just happens to be exactly what our system needs. Even if none of the guys in the minor can cut it at SS, we have Leury, who can hold the position down admirably on defense until Tim Anderson or whoever is ready. Alexei is great, but he's not likely to be a part of our next contender, so it's time to move him while he has value and we have the in-house candidates to replace him. 3. Acquire TWO corner outfielders -- It is time for Dayan Vicedo to go. I have always, ALWAYS been down on Viciedo and have always been willing to go down in flames if he broke out. Remember when I agreed you guys could stone me if he was good? Well he's not. He sucks. He has to go. "But Eminor, he hit a few homers the other day!" Yeah, look at his line this year: .231/.281/.405 with 21 HR (87 wRC+). "But Eminor, right-handed power is at a premium!" Yeah, but when you do everything else like a minor league utility player (except defense, which you do like Carlos Lee), you do more harm than good. Just for reference, 87 wRC+ is 13% below league average, and is exactly equal to the average MLB shortstop. We should give him to Seattle or something for anything in return. But he should be replaced with TWO OFs, at least one of which needs to be left-handed. What this does is make our team more like Oakland in that it will allow us to play match-ups like crazy. THIS is what the rotating DH should look like: four starting outfielders, and extra starting caliber corner infielder, mixed handedness, use DH to make sure the best/hottest guys are in the lineup every night, maximizing platoon advantage and ensuring good health. Giving Abreu some days off, too. I think we sign one (maybe a mid-tier guy, maybe a reclamation. Probably not Markakis even though he makes sense in every way except price) and trade for another. Another guy like Eaton would be ideal but let's not kid ourselves. If we spend more on the FA, maybe the trade is for the reclamation guy. Dominic Brown? I don't know, but we need two. Three NOPES: 1. Do NOT sign James Shields -- He has been a great pitcher, had a cool career, he's eaten us up, I get it. But he's going to be 33 and is already experiencing the effects of a natural decline. His velocity is down and he's now relying much more on contact than before, which has kept his K/BB rates good, but cannot go on forever. Also, it's risky because you rely more on BABIP luck and good defense to get by. Shileds would be good next year, but already worse than this year, and it'll keep going downhill as his velocity goes. Given what he's going to cost (I'm guessing roughly 5yr/$100m plus a draft pick), we just are not ready to mortgage our future for 2015. It's just the wrong time, both for us and him. 2. Do NOT sign Victor Martinez -- This dude is about to get PAID. He's also really old, really injury prone, and really REALLY unlikely ever to touch what he did this year again. I'm not saying he's going to be useless, but guys at his age are one knee injury from becoming bums (see Carlos Beltran), and even if he stays healthy, you're not going to get that value back to justify the cost of what this season si about to earn him. He may be in line for 3yr/$60m. Also, locking up the DH spot with a one-dimensional player takes away our ability to do my rotating DH/platoon OF thing. This is money that can go toward Russell Martin! 3. Do NOT alter the pitching plan -- It didn't work out this year. With the exception of Noesi, all of our bullpen and rotation upside plays busted. That is NOT likely to happen again. It's a process that has worked wonders for several franchises in our position. We need to do a better job of selecting them, but the plan is sound. Do not let Felipe Paulino cloud your judgement, Hahn. Continue to leverage your pitching development staff, continue to find assets that can be moved if necessary, continue to find assets that don't block anyone, and continue to fish for upside.
  23. QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 23, 2014 -> 08:23 AM) $9 million for Denard Span is a steal. He'd get $12-15 mill per year on the free agent market. Was about to post the exact same thing; remembered to scroll down and see if you already did this time. Good for me.
  24. He just looks like he's guessing on every pitch. IMO, if he is going to be a guess hitter, then we're probably seeing his ceiling right now. That said, he's still young and just missed a season. There's no reason to "give up" on him yet, but he's going to have to show substantial improvement in his pitch recognition and his approach to hitting next year if we're going to be able to depend on him as a future piece of the core.
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