Eminor3rd

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 21, 2014 -> 12:48 PM) I have zero interest in the MLB Draft but I am outnumbered on this board. Don't care. Could have fooled me.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Sep 20, 2014 -> 11:12 PM) Don't trip hommie. Just because one person can't seem to get through your posts doesn't mean others do not benefit from them. Even if the entire world overlooked your writing, it's still a moot point. This site is here as a forum for your expressions. If you enjoy having that outlet, then I'd encourage you to keep doing what improves the quality of your life. My choice here is to utilize the space to be light hearted, idiotic, witty, sincere and at times analytical. Most of the times thou, it's just idiocy. Which is absolutely needed in my life. Kids, wife, business, house payments, emotions, family, friends, clients, obligations... Yea. There's a definite need in my life, for a place like this, where I can poop on s***. Again, I'd encourage you to continue exploring your passions and may also suggest you lighten up a bit? Sorry you took my idiocy in a personal way. It was intended to make myself and others laugh. At the time I wrote it, I believe my wife had just snapped at me for feeding the baby and giving her a kiss on the cheek. Yes, postpartum is a challenge and Soxtalk just happens to be the small corner in my small universe where I can be the class clown. Bottom line: don't let an idiot discourage you. Poop.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 20, 2014 -> 10:00 AM) Sorry, I meant the last few weeks it seems he's not chasing pitches as much. When he returned from the injury, his timing was so off he was swinging at everything. Are there stats to show his swing percentage by month? Good question, I'm not aware of how to do it, but I'll dig around and try to find something.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 20, 2014 -> 08:15 AM) I still think Avi should be used as a trade chip if there is a team out there that projects him as a future star. I've watched all of his at bats closely this year, and it's amazing how much he struggles to square up any pitch over 90 mph. I'm not sure if it's due to the labrum injury, but he's going down the same path as other previous Sox youngsters like Josh Fields. I've been impressed by his ability to work the count, as he's not chasing a lot of pitches out of the zone. This is false, unfortunately. Both Pitch F/X and BIS show him with a substantially above average O-Swing% this year, which the the percentage of out-of-the-zone pitches he swings at.

There's no way way in hell we'd win the bidding for Cueto. Someone will pay more than we can pay. I know I'm a buzzkill but man it's true. It's not even plausible. I've spent a big portion of my life steeling myself from being let down, and maybe I've paid for it emotionally and I don't have as much fun as I could. Is it worth it to sacrifice the highs to avoid the lows? Sure doesn't sound like it when you put it THAT way.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Sep 19, 2014 -> 01:23 PM) IT'S NOT THE RESULT THAT MATTERS. IT'S THE PROCESS. Good god. If I drive my car 90mph through a red light and I don't hit anyone and I get to work on time can anyone in their right mind possibly say "it's the result that matters"? When I get pulled over I'll tell the cop "well I didn't hit anyone officer". QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Sep 19, 2014 -> 01:24 PM) If you are this results oriented in everything that you do, I would love to get in a big poker game with you sometime. This is the crux of the matter.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 19, 2014 -> 09:51 AM) If you fired a GM for a bad trade, it would be the job with the most turnover . Hahn stole Eaton . I just can't understand why people still say it was the right move when it clearly is apparent Davidson isn't what was advertised. He still has 30 HR potential but it is rather unlikely. If Hahn traded him for a closer making close to minimum now I doubt anyone still saying last year's trade was right would say trading him for a closer now would be wrong. He wasn't what he was supposed to be. That is obvious. He really wasn't a top 100 prospect. Because we're judging the move itself, not the result. Yeah, you can make the case that the scouts are to blame for missing on Davidson, but you can't make much of a case that a solid late inning releiver shouldn't be traded for a high-end 3B prospect on a team with no 3B solution.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 19, 2014 -> 10:10 AM) Do you think Rick will switch things up this year and try to trade a package including several young players to try to fill a big league role? EYE think that he'll be open to anything. I don't think he "strategy" will be based on where or how he acquires his talent, just that he know what type of talent he needs.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Sep 19, 2014 -> 09:26 AM) Yeah it would be a stat IMO you'd use more like WAR or something, as a starting point, and then you'd dig deeper from there. A lot of the major stats are really just starting points of the discussion IMO and then you would want to look at things situationally and so forth and get video on things. For us as fans we don't have time or access for all the really deep analysis and all that but for a Major League organization that, even when they make relatively "small" player personnel decisions such as bringing in a veteran bench bat or signing a middle reliever, are literally talking about margins of error that cost millions of dollars. Eric Surkamp is at least as capable if not more so than Scott Downs is right here in 2014, and the difference there is what almost $4M or $3.5M or something? You can't win 'em all but any time you'd want to make a major decision you'd want to look into it as much as possible & pay the right people to analyze everything. It's crazy to think that Scott Downs vs. Surkamp is a $4m decision that is kinda like "meh oh well," when there's probably a sales guy in the organization somewhere just BEGGING for a $5,000 increase on his base pay.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 10:53 PM) I was thinking earlier today while I was taking a s*** about how a good way to quantify a teams pitching performance might be to compare total batters faced to total outs recorded in the full season, and then just comparing that figure to the league averages. You need to face a minimum of batters anyway, but how many extra PA are we allowing beyond what is necessary and how does this compare to the league average? Then just go down the list, each pitcher gets a ratio of batters faced to outs recorded, each number is compared to league averages, and we base our decisions (i.e. the Danks decision) on this. Rather than money. Anyway stats are great in theory. But you want as many useful ones as possible and you want them to be as unique as possible so you can find different opportunities in them and so on. It would be an interesting stat. But you'd also have to control for quality of defense and quality of opposition somehow.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 10:46 PM) I agree, I even said that WAR has a lot of very practical uses. But it and others are also overused a lot, and used inappropriately a lot, and some of these other stats really aren't any better than the ones currently being shat upon (which themselves are actually useful, like BA). Ideally you want access to a lot of different and unique stats which are valuable because they tell a very small but specific part of the overall story. The more things you can try to quantify and define, the more possible puzzle pieces you have to work with. At the end of the day you want to piece together the big picture. That is how you make the best decisions. But focusing on one puzzle piece and trying to replicate it in as many places as possible doesn't add detail, and it doesn't make the larger picture even possible. This isn't even about WAR. It's not even related. My entire argument is about trying to use the right stat for the job depending upon the question that's being asked. This is what I'm talking about: sometimes everything that comes out of my mouth (fingers?) gets turned into "CHOOSE THE WS CHAMPION BY WAR WE HAVE EVERYTHING FIGURED OUT." The crux of my argument is you must choose the information that best answers the question you are asking. If you have the right tool for the job, that tool is NOT being "overused." Look. Here's the question: Is player X good at hitting? So, what does batting average tell you that OBP doesn't? It implies a factor of "extra damage" -- if a guy has more hits, he has more chances for extra base hits and to move runners around. But it's lacking there because it doesn't tell you anything about how many of those hits actually DO end up being extra base hits. It also doesn't tell how often those runners ARE going to move up. But we have something that does! SLG is measurement of total bases. When shown next to OBP, it paints a vivid picture! Here's how often this guy gets on base and then here's also how powerful those "times on base" are! OBP is better than BA at showing how often a guy does something positive, and SLG is better than BA at showing how much of an impact those positive things have. What is left for batting average? If you're trying to evaluate how much a guy is gonna help your team, what does it tell us that the others don't? Now, if the question is "is this dude a contact hitter," or "is he going to put a lot of balls in play" or "is his success going to be partially dependent on his speed," batting average would be a useful number to cite! Because it's a different question we're asking, and batting average would be the right tool. The problem, in general, with stats (not just in baseball) is their rampant MISUSE. People cite part of the story when they want to support a narrative they've already decided upon supporting at all costs. Like Dayan Viciedo. When the questions is "is Viciedo good and worth having on the team," the refrain will always be, "but he's only X years removed from hitting 25 homers!" This is dishonest because it intentionally warps context to make it sound like the guy had a good season. It was a terrible season! It was only "good" under the lens that it hopefully didn't represent his ceiling. He did EVERYTHING else poorly at the plate, on the basepaths, and in the field. If someone makes that argument, you have to come back with the information that tells the true story about how he performed that year. Part of being able to make a complete argument is selecting the information that is applicable to the argument. This means ignoring information that does not get you closer to the truth. Greg argues that, if you want to know if a hitter is making a positive contribution, batting average is always going to get you closer to the truth than OBP/SLG and his evidence is that he sees batting average more often on TV. Greg is flat-out wrong. And it has nothing to with WAR, it has to do with common sense.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 11:50 PM) The first 11 words of your post usurp the meat of your post and are kind of gross IMO. QUOTE (hi8is @ Sep 19, 2014 -> 06:38 AM) Poop. lol

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 04:39 PM) Also as far as the people who care about draft picks, I told some huge baseball fans about people on this message board wanting the Sox to lose to improve draft stock and ALL OF THEM said, "In baseball? They care about the draft?" They laughed heartily. Then go back and hang out with your meatball friends. Baseball is more to us than an excuse to drink beer. We actually want to follow the team's quest to contention.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 11:48 PM) Then why were the stats used in the article? The reporter used them with confidence. But Zona willingly made the trade. Hmmm... do they know more than Buddy Bell? You like this trade? This is a results business. We gave up a strong closer candidate (he figured to be mighty comfortable in the role again this year on the South Side) for a guy who does not look like a prime prospect anymore. Maybe he'll be great. Did the Dbacks figure he was a strong candidate to be a bust? I happen to think a GM, if he is doing his job, at least has a closer in waiting if he trades a decent closer. I know, I know ... Nate Jones. You continue to operate from the perspective that it is KNOWABLE how players will pan out, and if a GM is successful, it's because they have a crystal ball. This is completely delusional.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 03:52 PM) A LITTLE BIT OF LEURY IN MY LIFE A LITTLE BIT OF EURY BY MY SIDE A LITTLE BIT OF MOISES IS ALL I NEED A LITTLE BIT OF AVISAIL IS WHAT I SEE A LITTLE BIT OF ADRIAN IN THE SUN A LITTLE BIT OF ALEXEI ALL NIGHT LONG A LITTLE BIT OF DAYAN HERE I AM A LITTLE BIT OF THEM MAKES ME THEIR MAN

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 09:24 PM) Okay anybody who has seen any of my posts know I feel the loss of Reed had a horrific effect on this team. He couldn't close so we trotted out a number of closers who basically all failed. Some had a run of a couple good saves, then failed. Davidson at this point is a prospect who appears to be a non-prospect. He has his work cut out. I give the trade a D to D- on Hahn's resume. Why? This line from the above-mentioned article ... " As of today, 9/18/14, Reed holds a 4.13 ERA with 31 saves and an 86.1% save conversion rate." That, folks is a damn fine conversion rate and damn fine number of saves. I'd have preferred him closing for the Sox and finding two decent set up men from the number of lousy pitchers in our organization. Go ahead and fry me now. p.s. You all may hate me and/or my posts but at least you must admit I am consistent in my opinions. Addison Reed is 23 out of 32 in SV%, lol: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/closers

It was absolutely the right move at the time, but it unfortunately hasn't panned out well for us so far.

For me, the pursuit of understanding is fun when it applies to something I'm interested in. The fact that I'll never know everything doesn't ruin the joy of letting me know something. We can't cure cancer with anything like 100% success, but we can get it right part of the time. That doesn't mean we should stop trying or continue to learn more. The point is that the fact that you don't have 100% of the answer doesn't make something useless and a waste of time.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 03:48 PM) Oh s***, Mouton with the push. Lol, wtf. This morning it was FIVE. Who hacked Soxtalk?! Whoever it is, your point is taken: I need a Mouton shirsey at least much as I need a Quintana shirsey. I cannot disagree. I owe it to you to rectify this.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 01:43 PM) There's a whole lot here in these few words that I would disagree with but I'm picking one sentence and bolding out the worst parts. Baseball is an extremely complex game. Go ahead and name another sport with more variables and that is more finite. Go ahead because I can't think of one. As far as I know, among the major sports, baseball is the most complex, finite, and interdependent game out there. Everyone wants brevity? No, just people who want the game to be simpler want brevity. The stuff about batting average adding little and SLG contextualizing OBP.... sure if all you want to do is make lists and hand out awards you can operate that way. If you want to understand and appreciate the game of baseball you need a whole s***load more than a couple of stats. And you definitely DO need batting average anyway, if you need OBP and SLG. What ultimately contextualizes BA, OBP and SLG is team makeup, situation as a whole including inning, outs and men on base, as well as player capabilities like speed. Sometimes a hit is as good as a walk, other times a hit is better, sometimes a HR or bases-clearing double wins you the game, other times it doesn't really affect the score. At the end of the day you want stats to help you make difficult decisions. If I trade my #6 hitting RH SS putting up the following numbers and replace him with a lesser defensive but still quality option who hits for more power and is LH but doesn't have the speed, contact ability or arm strength am I going to be a better team? Can I still hit him sixth in MY batting order? That's what you need to know. None of those stats in isolation tell you anything, in this case they just make you dumber. I'm bolding all the same old strawman claims always hear that don't have anything to do with what I'm talking about and that imply that I represent some sort of soulless group of computer nerds trying to ruin baseball with robots. If you actually want to know or learn something, you need to draw a conclusion of some kind. You need brevity for that because a conclusion IS brevity. If you ask a question, you want an accurate answer. If that question is "what percentage of times does a guy come up to bat and get a hit," then AVG is it. If it's anything closer to "how valuable is this guy at the plate", AVG is an afterthrought when compared to OBP and SLG. If you don't want to know anything and enjoy the mysticism of the game being as unpredictable as possible, then why look at any results at all? I'm tired of this false narrative that anyone who wants to use data to understand what is happening on the field is some sort of tasteless socialist nerd. If you don't give a s***, just ignore it all. We're talking about the utility of the most general and freely cited offensive stats as the refer to the ability to hit, there's no threat of someone making some bulls*** claim that team makeup and situational hitting are useless. No one ever argues that. The people that are arguing that are imaginary people you made up in your head. Why can't we talk about ways to measure hitting without devolving into another "us vs. them" argument about how it's impossible to measure the total value of a player?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 12:03 PM) I think OBP is a bit hollow as well. It really doesn't account for what is sacrificed to get on base. Take a guy like Abreu. If he laid off of the pitch off of the corner, he'd have an insane OBP. But he'd also sacrifice some batting average, as he hits the hell out of that pitch, and a ton of RBI's. Is that worth it? Just because a pitch is in the strike zone, doesn't mean that a batter can hit it, and just because a pitch is out of the zone, doesn't mean the hitter doesn't have a better swing for it. Another one that comes to mind it Thomas. I really feel like in his first 6-8 years, if he would have expanded his zone a bit more, he could have really added to his average and RBI numbers, as crazy as that sounds. He had a great swing the other way, and could probably have hit that same pitch that Abreu does six inches off of the corner, very effectively. The thing to consider here, though, is that people that want to replace AVG with OBP universally agree that they also need SLG to contextualize it. The argument is less about walks and hits as it is about the stats themselves; that if you have OBP and SLG, AVG doesn't really add anything to the conversation, yet it remains the first one cited. All of those figures, alone, fail at telling how good a hitter you have, and when you consider them all together, AVG has the least to contribute to the conversation. So it's not that OBP replaces AVG, it's just that it's a more useful overall stat in a world where you need more than one stat anyway -- but that you also want to be able to cite as few as possible. Everyone craves brevity, and you just don't NEED AVG, so a lot of people don't want to get caught up with it.

OBP is more valuable during periods of high-offensive output, because anyone who reaches base is more likely to eventually score. SLG is more valuable during periods of low-offensive output, because high SLG events are more likely to score runs immediately instead of having to rely on subsequent hitters to continue to move the line.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 07:36 AM) I have always wondered why reaching on an error does not count as a time reaching base in regards to a player's OBP. He didn't make an out. He did reach base. Obviously, there isn't going to be much difference, but it doesn't make much sense. It's because the fact that he reached base is credited to the fielder. The batter didn't "earn" the base.

Also, guys, don't look now, but you can get a size XL Kevin Youkilis shirsey for just ten bucks! http://shop.mlb.com/product/index.jsp?prod...1452703.2455371 Lol

QUOTE (black jack @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 07:37 PM) Never wear another man's name on your back. That seems like a Jack McDowell thing to say