Eminor3rd

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 3, 2014 -> 09:34 AM) Now we're pushing it with Quintana. Solid, underrated pitcher, sure. Star, no way. Adam Eaton's got more star quality than Quintana, so does Avisail. Heck, so do Anderson and Hawkins, for that matter. Rodon as well. Stanton's an elite player, a superstar, one of the top 10 talents in the game today and still young. If that's true, than "star quality" doesn't correlate heavily with doing what it takes to win ballgames. Call him what you want, Quintana is a top 25 starting pitcher in MLB today whether most people recognize it or not. Lack of an elite tool doesn't change the fact that the total package is highly effective at preventing runs.

I don't see any reason why we should expect Peavy and Danks' rehab paths to be related.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Sep 3, 2014 -> 08:35 AM) His decision to cut back on road games started last night. In the 9th inning he said "F*** THIS SH**" and left lol seriously. I was hoping he didn't have a heart attack or something.

QUOTE (The Wiz @ Aug 22, 2014 -> 12:40 PM) The only thing Flowers has shown me this year is that he looks like a solid candidate to be a backup C who plays vs. lefties. I'm impressed by his adjustments at the plate and his work ethic, but when it comes down to it, Flowers work ethic does not make up for a lack of physical talent to be a good everyday player, in my opinion. This.

I think it's the by-product of optimization. Any time you push the human body to its limits, you are increasing injury risk. I think that teams have shown they would much rather carry more pitchers and squeeze every ounce from them than to sacrifice any level of performance for the sake of longevity. It's the nature of the beast in an environment where supply is unlimited -- you're never going to run out of guys who are willing to do what it takes for a shot at the show.

Stanton is unquestionably substantially better than Garcia. However, is the upgrade worth losing Quintana? I don't think so, and I am and always have been low on Garcia.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 2, 2014 -> 09:02 AM) There were a lot of outliers before pitch counts came into vogue. Not like Nolan Ryan, though. I think he might be a robot. I mean seriously, Nolan Ryan pitched in the MLB during mid-60's and also pitched in the MLB during the mid-90's. And he threw HARD. I think it's a pretty common consensus that pitchers of old simply did not throw as hard as the guys do today, partially due to strength and conditioning but just as much (if not more) to do with the fact that they simply held more back because they (1) knew they were expected to go the whole game and (2) they weren't expected to strike everyone out. Ryan was an exception to all of that. He pitched longer than almost anyone, more frequently than almost anyone, threw harder than anyone, and struck more guys out than anyone. He is made of carbon steel and can be repaired in a machine shop, so he cannot be used as an example of what can be expected from other pitchers.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 2, 2014 -> 08:18 AM) Nolan Ryan in his 40s was throwing a ton of pitches in games. Supposedly earlier in his career, he went over 200 a few times. Pitch counts didn't used to be a big deal. Now when guys get to 100, everyone starts freaking out. That can be changed. One thing that is a lot different today, is guys are throwing harder. 90 is mediocre. Almost everyone throws 90. The other thing is, your harder throwers are also throwing a lot of sliders. Most power guys, used to throw curveballs. Guys are also trying to get a lot more out of sliders than they used to as well. Nolan Ryan is an outlier

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Sep 1, 2014 -> 02:47 PM) It's not a claim that having two dangerous hitters in the heart of your order is better than 1. Or like somebody else said, watch an NL game. Having two dangerous hitters in your lineup is better than one, because you've increased your lineup's ability to hit. Not because of protection. Like I said a couple posts ago: if you want Victor Martinez, want him because he's a better hitter than Dayan Viciedo, not because you think he's going to make Jose Abreu get better pitches. There's no evidence for the latter despite dozens of attempts to find it.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 1, 2014 -> 02:36 PM) I don't know how you could accurately study this. It seems to me it would have to be over a several year period, and numbers can be affected by other reasons over that time. I would think asking pitchers if they pitch hitters differently if they have "protection" would probably give you an answer. But that might be too simple. There are a few methods that people have used, some of them are choosing individual instances where exceptional hitters have had good and bad protection and trying to find differences. Among those, some studies have looked specifically at how the batters are pitched to rather than just at whether or not they hit better. Here's one: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/...ection-myth-mlb Here's one regarding pitch type rather than in-zone pitches: http://crashburnalley.com/2011/09/20/the-m...ces-protection/

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Sep 1, 2014 -> 12:35 PM) I'd say absolutely. It's trendy to bash lineup protection right now; it's been popping up the last few years. Some new insight, but it mostly seems just to be trendy bashing. Very much like BA and pitcher wins a few years back, getting slammed to hell. These people seem to forget that all stats are doing is measuring things accurately. They aren't trying to convince you or twist your arm, they're just sitting there quietly being stats. Again, there's no effect for it in any study. If you believe in lineup protection, show evidence that it makes a difference. People shouldn't trust claims made without any supporting evidence. I'm open to the idea of it making a difference, but no one's been able to find one.

#BattleForBickford

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Sep 1, 2014 -> 01:06 PM) I mean, lineup protection HAS to mean fewer IBB's to your best hitter, right? That's definitely how it works when you have piss-poor protection from the 9-hole in the NL. And presumably you'd rather have your best hitter swing the bat than get an IBB...or else it wouldn't make sense for any manager to intentionally walk the other team's best hitter. So there has to be some effect on overall production, just from IBB rates, right? If I remember correctly, it ends up being just a handful and so doesn't really move the needle. There would be more in an instance of ULTIMATE non-protection (like if the best hitter hit before the pitcher), but since the hitters that you want protected are always hitting next to whoever the other best hitters on the team are, the difference is rarely big enough. I think Tango or someone did a study that showed the only time lineup protection ever had a measurable effect on stuff like that was Barry Bonds during the Barry Bonds-show years when he was the best hitter ever and SFG was terrible offensively otherwise. But like I said, Google around. It's one of those things that intuitively makes sense but just hasn't ever shown up in the numbers. It's possible that there ARE effects but they are positive and negative and cancel each other out, but either way, it's not something we should stress out about. It's not going to be the difference between a winning season or not; good hitters help because they hit well, not because they change the lineup.

QUOTE (MAX @ Sep 1, 2014 -> 12:41 PM) Maybe it doesn't even help abreu see better pitches except rarely, but having a big bat after him definitely helps the sox score more runs. Right, the value of Victor Martinez would be Victor Martinez hitting. It would not have anything to do with Jose Abreu unless you mean driving him in/being on base to be driven in. Anyone skeptical about lineup protection should Google around a bit. There's been a TON of effort put into trying to find an effect for it, and nothing has ever shown up.

Loved the signing. LOVED it. It was exactly what we needed at the time. Unfortunately the worst-case played out. I give the front office credit for trying, and I'm pretty sure Adam Dunn has experienced enough jeering from the fans and media to ensure he's had plenty of mental anguish. No need to pile on. Thanks for making Jose Abreu feel welcome here, Adam. Good luck and I hope you get your ring.

QUOTE (Wickel @ Sep 1, 2014 -> 09:10 AM) Turmoil where? How about starting with the pitching staff? How about the lame bullpen? And both are the result of a non-responsive GM (although he was a major improvement over the beleaguered Kenny W). I, for one, thought we missed a golden opportunity in July to bolster the staff before the trade deadline. Our offense was more than holding its own--although Hahn is slowly dismantling it--and a few strategic moves in the pen and maybe adding a viable No. 4 or No. 5 starter would've worked miracles. Hell, getting a strong No. 3 would have sufficed. We were only six or seven games back at the time, with Abreu burning a a path on the diamond. But this happens every year, probably thanks to the big boss Mr. Reinsdork! You, my friend, are not well informed on this team's strategic plan. Although I think your post is completely nonsensical, I think this board could be a great place for you. You'll find that we tend to dig a little deeper into the long-term plan than the average fan. Welcome, and I hope we can help you enjoy the Sox on a deeper level.

This is one of those examples where the contract is important. Those of us that caution against these deals sometimes get lambasted for "being concerned over Jerry's wallet," but there's a good chance we're going to be able to see the worst case play out right in front of us. Great player, bad contract, and the Yankees may get nailed gambling on him opting out. Or maybe he misses a year and comes back and is the best pitcher they've had since CC. Who knows.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 31, 2014 -> 04:00 PM) The Sox gave me a couple of free tickets and a free patio party to the Sept. 9th game. It will be interesting to see if the foam stops falling out of the people's mouths who b****ed at him every single time he made an out. I kinda hope he goes yard, just so the foam comes back one more time.

Adam Dunn has announced he will retire after this season. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/08/adam...ter-season.html

Here's the standard FA list: Starting Pitchers Brett Anderson (27) – $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout Josh Beckett (35) Chad Billingsley (30) – $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout Joe Blanton (34) A.J. Burnett (38) – mutual option Chris Capuano (36) Bruce Chen (38) – $5.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout Wei-Yin Chen (29) – $4.75MM club option with a $372K buyout Kevin Correia (34) Johnny Cueto (29) – $10MM club option with an $800K buyout Jorge De La Rosa (34) Ryan Dempster (38) Gavin Floyd (32) Yovani Gallardo (29) – $13MM club option with a $600K buyout Jason Hammel (32) J.A. Happ (32) – $6.7MM club option Aaron Harang (37) Dan Haren (34) – $10MM player option if 180 innings reached in 2014 Roberto Hernandez (34) Hisashi Iwakuma (34) – $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout Josh Johnson (31) – $4MM club option Kyle Kendrick (30) Hiroki Kuroda (40) Jon Lester (31) Colby Lewis (35) Francisco Liriano (31) Paul Maholm (33) Justin Masterson (30) Brandon McCarthy (31) Brandon Morrow (30) – $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout Felipe Paulino (31) – $4MM club option with a $250K buyout Jake Peavy (34) Wandy Rodriguez (36) Ervin Santana (32) Joe Saunders (34) Max Scherzer (30) James Shields (33) Misael Siverio (24) Carlos Villanueva (31) Ryan Vogelsong (37) Edinson Volquez (30) Jerome Williams (33) I don't think we need to worry about lefties/righties. I think we sign two of the above in the "reclamation project" range, and make a trade for a young starter with a mid-rotation ceiling.

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Aug 31, 2014 -> 03:43 AM) I really want Viciedo gone. Me too.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 10:46 PM) I can't believe I just read five pages of this with no posting by or mention of Feeky. I never hated De Aza as much as the rest but the change is a fresh breath of air. He was never meant to be anything and he played pretty damn well for us for a while. This is how I feel. I was really disappointed with how he started the season. I always felt like he was an underrated hitter. But it was time to go, would have been non-tendered.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 03:24 PM) $10/year?!?! I HIGHLY doubt that I think he will because of the sheer amount of teams that will be involved in the bidding. EVERYONE needs a strong lefty and the young one are easier to give the long deals to.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 11:04 AM) I would love to see Luke Gregerson and Andrew Miller brought in Big RP money NEVER works out. Miller is gonna bring a 3 to 4 year deal at $10m+ per season

As Jimmy and Balta pointed out elsewhere, Martinez will certainly get a QO. Bad idea for us, not realistic.