Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Wickel @ Sep 1, 2014 -> 09:10 AM) Turmoil where? How about starting with the pitching staff? How about the lame bullpen? And both are the result of a non-responsive GM (although he was a major improvement over the beleaguered Kenny W). I, for one, thought we missed a golden opportunity in July to bolster the staff before the trade deadline. Our offense was more than holding its own--although Hahn is slowly dismantling it--and a few strategic moves in the pen and maybe adding a viable No. 4 or No. 5 starter would've worked miracles. Hell, getting a strong No. 3 would have sufficed. We were only six or seven games back at the time, with Abreu burning a a path on the diamond. But this happens every year, probably thanks to the big boss Mr. Reinsdork! You, my friend, are not well informed on this team's strategic plan. Although I think your post is completely nonsensical, I think this board could be a great place for you. You'll find that we tend to dig a little deeper into the long-term plan than the average fan. Welcome, and I hope we can help you enjoy the Sox on a deeper level.

This is one of those examples where the contract is important. Those of us that caution against these deals sometimes get lambasted for "being concerned over Jerry's wallet," but there's a good chance we're going to be able to see the worst case play out right in front of us. Great player, bad contract, and the Yankees may get nailed gambling on him opting out. Or maybe he misses a year and comes back and is the best pitcher they've had since CC. Who knows.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 31, 2014 -> 04:00 PM) The Sox gave me a couple of free tickets and a free patio party to the Sept. 9th game. It will be interesting to see if the foam stops falling out of the people's mouths who b****ed at him every single time he made an out. I kinda hope he goes yard, just so the foam comes back one more time.

Adam Dunn has announced he will retire after this season. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/08/adam...ter-season.html

Here's the standard FA list: Starting Pitchers Brett Anderson (27) – $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout Josh Beckett (35) Chad Billingsley (30) – $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout Joe Blanton (34) A.J. Burnett (38) – mutual option Chris Capuano (36) Bruce Chen (38) – $5.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout Wei-Yin Chen (29) – $4.75MM club option with a $372K buyout Kevin Correia (34) Johnny Cueto (29) – $10MM club option with an $800K buyout Jorge De La Rosa (34) Ryan Dempster (38) Gavin Floyd (32) Yovani Gallardo (29) – $13MM club option with a $600K buyout Jason Hammel (32) J.A. Happ (32) – $6.7MM club option Aaron Harang (37) Dan Haren (34) – $10MM player option if 180 innings reached in 2014 Roberto Hernandez (34) Hisashi Iwakuma (34) – $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout Josh Johnson (31) – $4MM club option Kyle Kendrick (30) Hiroki Kuroda (40) Jon Lester (31) Colby Lewis (35) Francisco Liriano (31) Paul Maholm (33) Justin Masterson (30) Brandon McCarthy (31) Brandon Morrow (30) – $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout Felipe Paulino (31) – $4MM club option with a $250K buyout Jake Peavy (34) Wandy Rodriguez (36) Ervin Santana (32) Joe Saunders (34) Max Scherzer (30) James Shields (33) Misael Siverio (24) Carlos Villanueva (31) Ryan Vogelsong (37) Edinson Volquez (30) Jerome Williams (33) I don't think we need to worry about lefties/righties. I think we sign two of the above in the "reclamation project" range, and make a trade for a young starter with a mid-rotation ceiling.

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Aug 31, 2014 -> 03:43 AM) I really want Viciedo gone. Me too.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 10:46 PM) I can't believe I just read five pages of this with no posting by or mention of Feeky. I never hated De Aza as much as the rest but the change is a fresh breath of air. He was never meant to be anything and he played pretty damn well for us for a while. This is how I feel. I was really disappointed with how he started the season. I always felt like he was an underrated hitter. But it was time to go, would have been non-tendered.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 03:24 PM) $10/year?!?! I HIGHLY doubt that I think he will because of the sheer amount of teams that will be involved in the bidding. EVERYONE needs a strong lefty and the young one are easier to give the long deals to.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 11:04 AM) I would love to see Luke Gregerson and Andrew Miller brought in Big RP money NEVER works out. Miller is gonna bring a 3 to 4 year deal at $10m+ per season

As Jimmy and Balta pointed out elsewhere, Martinez will certainly get a QO. Bad idea for us, not realistic.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 02:50 PM) If Victor Martinez gets a Qualifying Offer he will not be a White Sox. QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 02:52 PM) Barring injury, the Tigers would be nuts to not give him a QO. Right, he DEFINITELY will. He's the perfect 1 year deal.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 11:58 AM) The other thing is Detroit will eventually become a cesspool of bad contracts to broken down players. The White Sox will hopefully be on an upswing. It may be next year. Unless Texas keeps bailing them out

I do not support this idea. He will not come for 2/20.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 05:44 PM) isn't his beer terrible? It doesn't stand up to craft beers, but it's a notch above the typical sports-beer stuff like Bud Light. As long as he markets it to sports fans, I think he'll be alright. Especially if he gets a strong early push riding his HOF wave.

Personally, I'd love to move Alexei this offseason because I think there will be a good market for him. With Beckham out of the picture, I give Semien the inside track to the 2B job, Micah time to get back to health in AAA, and let Leury and Sanchez duke it out for the full-time job at SS. Both of those guys deserve a long look, IMO, and in the worst case scenario that neither of them hit at all, we at least know that Leury can hold it down defensively for 2015. Unfortunately for Saladino, he's got to play his way into a spot in Spring Training or hope that some injuries/ineffectiveness combine to give him a shot during the season. Ideally, he's full-time SS in Charlotte with Sanchez up at the big league level, giving Micah plenty of reps at 2B. If Davidson continues to struggle, Gillaspie regresses, and Micah performs, Semien can shift to 3B and when Micah is ready to take a stab at 2B. I'm not worried about Rondon at the moment -- he has plenty of learning to do on the offensive side.

Great content, as usual.

QUOTE (LDF @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 03:19 PM) a great post, hard to argue with, however I will go for my piece of mind. Ramirez and Gillaspie switch. Ramirez is and may be the better hitter with power being the value point. with that, that is my only point. I can argue with the right left and your opinion. Yeah, for sure, makes sense. I am personally just really, really into alternating handedness because of how good specialist relievers are these days. But that's just my opinion and I don't have a ton of evidence to suggest it's as important as I feel it is. Also, if we had a righty leadoff guy, I'd totally be on board with Gillaspie at #2.

QUOTE (LDF @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 03:01 PM) I am with Balta on his assessment. Conor does not have power and he can work the count, hence the perfect #2 hitter. Alexia should be a 4 or 5 hitter. question for you stat guys, does his "slash line" say so. if slash line is the right stat to use. There's evidence that the #5 hole is a great place for a high contact hitter with some propensity for doubles. I think that Alexei, at his best, is a great candidate for #5. From #4 though, I want more dingers. Most studies point to #4 being an even more important position for an all-around offensive threat than people think -- most people's idea of a perfect #3 hitter is usually a better #4 hitter. IMO, this lineup is best with Abreu at #4 and a lefty at #3. Assuming Eaton (L) at leadoff, that works out perfectly as Adam Dunn, with Conor at #5, thus sandwiching Abreu with Lefties and use Connor's "high contact and doubles" really well. In this scenario, I like Ramirez at #2 because of his right handed bat, though ideally we'd like a guy that gets on base more. L Eaton R Ramirez L Dunn R Abreu L Gillaspie ? ? ? ?

QUOTE (LDF @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 03:45 PM) If today what draft day and all being equal, who would be the first player taken, Matuella or Aiken? I think maybe Bickford, honestly.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 02:54 PM) Nice write-up, and all good points. But I do think it is important to seperate the two concepts - ceiling and polish. They are a matrix. One can be high or low on either scale. If you don't allow for that, you box yourself in. For sure, let me clarify: I meant that "polish" and "low ceiling" tend to go hand in hand with prospects, not necessarily Major Leaguers. When high ceiling guys gain polish, they are ML stars, but when prospects get drafted already having polish, they tend to have lower ceilings.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 12:02 PM) Cameron was pretty down on another 2B named Robbie Cano and he turned out OK. Cameron famously said that Cano would be a "270/300/380 type with a butcher's glove at 2B". To be fair, almost no one thought Cano would be good.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 11:56 AM) Listened to a Fangraphs Audio podcast, and Carson Cistulli brought up Marcus Semien as being "one of his guys", and Dave Cameron immediately shot him down saying he's terrible. Just thought I'd leave that here. Cistulli has been on Semien almost as soon as we all were. He always digs for guys with good plate discipline and tries to blow him up. I posted a bunch of Cistulli's stuff in Semien's AAP last year.

QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 10:05 AM) That's the point. It's not that people didn't like Hawk before, but the time has come to move forward.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 12:40 PM) Cost of doing business these days. It's not like they can't just dump De Aza if Semien is raking or they bring in someone better. I don't think it should be plan A (plan A would be getting another stud young OF similar in upside to Avi) but as a backup plan it's not bad. Why don't you want Semien at 2B? If one of them has to move, Micah profiles much better in the OF because of his superior speed and inferior glovework.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 29, 2014 -> 06:52 AM) If DJ Stewart is that much more polished, that isn't a bad thing, it is a good thing. It only becomes a bad thing if his ceiling is notably lower than others they could draft. The issue is that "polish" and "low ceiling" tend to go hand-in-hand. Pray, indulge the following generalization: Player P and Player R have similar numbers, but they produce them in different ways. P has an advanced, polished approach to the game -- he works counts, he plays fundamental defense, etc. R, on the other hand, is extremely raw -- he's a free swinger who makes flashy plays but botches the routine from time to time. P succeeds through optimization, R succeeds through raw talent. Though they've been successful so far, they both hit a wall at AA and begin to struggle. Both being similarly humble, they each turn to their coaches for answers. R, now forced to learn the skills that were never necessary before, finds success after figuring out how to be more selective at the plate and committing himself to a healthy amount of extra reps on defense. P, however, has little left to learn. His coaches desperately try to tweak his swing mechanics and send him to a sports psychologist to teach him to meditate before games, but the only result is frustration and streakiness. Because there's simply nothing left for P to improve, he has reached his peak; P has risen as far as his talent can take him. Typically, "ceiling" is what happens if a player is able to put it all together; to become a master at all the skills required to play baseball. The trouble, of course, is that mastering those skills is far from automatic, hence high bust rates on intriguing athletes that are "risky." While the "safe" ones have little to figure out, they are also risky in the sense that it is incredibly difficult to predict how far their talent can take them. Since they have less to learn, they have a much smaller margin for error. Unless they are drafted as near ML ready, they necessarily have a lower ceiling. I think that the only guys that are both "safe" and have similar ceilings as the "risky" guys are the really obvious, really rare generational talent guys. Those are ones that have the game figured out but have tons of room to mature physically.