Eminor3rd

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 05:26 PM) I have a hard time believing that Placido Polanco has a UZR/150 of 9.9 while Adrian Beltre is at 8.4 since 2010. Does anyone really believe that Polanco has been a better defensive 3B than Beltre over the last 4 years? For these reasons, I have a hard time putting defense at the same value as offense This cracks me up. How many innings have you watched of those guys over the past few years? So the measure of a good metric is "does it confirm what I already think"?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 12:11 PM) Who cares if it is MORE accurate if it isn't accurate? So should we stop treating people for cancer until we find a cure that works every time? No, you use all of the best info you can, Dick. Why wouldn't you? All the poster did was cite some low FIPs to try to find an indicator of what Hahn might have seen in these guys. Does finding guys with high strikeouts, low walks, and low homeruns sound like a bad starting point for building a bullpen?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 12:57 PM) I agree with reliever ERA's. One or two really bad outings can really effect them. But that doesn't mean FIP is accurate . But it is MORE accurate. As with anything, smaller sample data begets less reliable predictions, and relievers always have small sample data. So if you're saying something along the lines of "yeah, I'm not going to look much into results at all when projecting these guys, I'd rather go with scouting," I think that's a perfectly defensible claim. But if a guy IS going to try to use results to project, the fact that the guy is using FIP instead of something else is nothing to balk at because it is, in fact, among the most reliable indicators we have available to us.

No idea why they'd trade Turner for Danks

Great write-ups as always, even if people don't agree on the order. Thanks!

Yeah he won't get to us. Too bad. Hard to believe they couldn't have traded him before the deadline if they were five days from DFA'ing him.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 10:24 AM) People always say that FIP is "A better indicator of future success", so with that said here is look at the bullpen Hahn built...Kinda. ( Closer- Nate Jones- 2.64 Matt Lindstrom- 3.15 Scott Downs- 3.09 Ronald Belisario- 3.64 Daniel Webb- 2.34 Jake Petricka- 3.72 Now I'm not sure that the whole future success thing should really be used on a year to to year basis, but this shows you just how "good" the guys he brought together were last year. Those guys duplicate those numbers this year, which I'm sure Hahn was hoping for, then the bullpen is fine. Greg, VA, and whoever else who is arguing otherwise, please, explain how Rick Hahn is supposed to know these guys were gonna fail. Their regular ERA and FIP were good, so what else can he go off of? If you can't can't come up with a reason, then why blame Hahn? QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 10:28 AM) If FIP is an indicator of future success, it appears it needs a bit of fine tuning. QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 10:37 AM) FIP is one of the most overused and overrelied upon new stats out there. There are inherent flaws in the calculation and favoritism towards certain statistics. On an aggregate level, FIP is more accurate than ERA when predicting future ERA. That is an indisputable fact. You can run calculations and find it to be true. It is not magic, it is not perfect, but that does not make it useless. It is better than ERA at predicting ERA. That's how you should use it.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 09:08 AM) I would be shocked if all of them were claimed. And if they were, I would expect you'd see some of those guys go for nothing. I think like half of them have no-trade clauses and all of them that do have publicly shown reluctance to get moved. Otherwise, yeah.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 07:19 AM) You think they'll get claimed? Those guys? Yeah. Maybe not Papelbon. No Ryan Howards in that list, though.

Unless RAJ's asking prices changed, it looks like none of these guy will move. They'll all get claimed though.

I don't think we want to go for a full-time DH at this point, especially not in a guy we'd feel attached to. I think we need to try to acquire more outfielders and platoon/rest them in that spot. The A's are proving that carrying four above average, non-star outfielders creates a ton of flexibility in terms of optimizing matchups and covering injury contingency.

QUOTE (Lemon_44 @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 04:32 AM) If that is next year's starting rotation, Hahn should be looking to share an apartment with Kevin Towers because they should both be out of a job. They need to add a top 3 guy. There's been a lot of speculation on Shields but he's getting up there in age and there's not a lot on the FA market unless the Sox want to look at Masterson or Ervin Santana. I highly doubt they get into the market for Scherzer. It will be interesting to see who actually hits the market. There are some good options that have club/player options that we'll have to wait and see if they are exercised. Agreed that Carroll must NOT, at any point, be a part of the "plan" for a Major league pitching staff. Carroll is the type of thing that "happens" top a staff when a couple things go wrong. They won't and shouldn't outbid everyone on Scherzer or Shields. It's jsut not real good year to big on pitching in free agency. If we make a significant addition to the staff (as in not a reclamation project or flier), IMO it will come via trade.

There will likely be one or two free agents thrown into the mix, at least one (maybe both) of the Felipe Paulino/Rich Harden ilk. I'd be shocked if we go big this year on FA signings unless the team really finishes exceptionally strong.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 5, 2014 -> 06:33 AM) You know Eminor these people we're debating this with are not simpletons they understand the concept that rebuilding takes patience and time. Did I want more spent coming into the season ? I sure did. I wanted Ellsbury ,but when I saw what he signed for I wasn't upset the Sox didn't get him Did Hahn want more? He sure did, he wanted Tanaka. Had they got Tanaka would they have spent a bit more on the bullpen afterwards ? I don't know .We will never know. But Tanaka and Ellbury are both the kind of contracts you're speaking of that screw things up for teams. Unfortunately that's the price you have to pay now in the game. The agents and the deep pockets owners have made sure its the rich who will always get richer and to get a superstar and really even just good players you have to pay for their declining years .Teams that try and do it another way often have long dry spells of failure like you mention. The Cubs ,Astros, Royals . Tampa Bay has had some success with keeping costs down and so has Oakland recently. Marlins won 2 WS (1997 and 2003) then completely and utterly destroyed their teams. Pirates can never get anything accomplished because they just don't have the cash flow coming in. The Sox ? Well attendance could be better, they don't have a huge TV contract bringing in huge amounts of cash like the Yankees, Boston, Seattle or the Dodgers.They don't have an ownership group that will spend irresponsibly like the Phillies and Detroit. There are 2 teams in the city and of the 2 the Sox are the ugly stepchild. The fans just won't show up because we're the lovable losers . Our fans demand a winner , screw fiscal responsibility and the rest of those lame excuses about rebuilding. Screw the fact that bullpen pieces are rarely considered core pieces and their performances fluctuate greatly from year to year. or that sometimes things can blow up in your face like injuries and unexpected bad years . Screw the fact Hahn just got Sale and Q and now Abreu it seems under great to pretty good contracts. Screw his acquisitions of Eaton and getting Gillaspie for practically nothing. Yet ,as evidenced in this thread, they throw tantrums like whiny little brats when they can't have it all every year. Waaa it's all Hahn's fault for trading Addison Reed . My suggestion : go be Red Sox or Yankees, Dodger fans if you expect every last dime to be spent every damn year. Hahn can't say that but I can. I'm not calling them simpletons or anything similar, but when threads like these pop-up, I really DO question whether a lot of people here understand the plan. 10 months ago, at the end of the most excruciating Sox season I've ever experienced, 95% of our posters rightfully (IMO) wanted to clean house. Now halfway through the FIRST season of this, after some frankly incredible strides in the "cleaning house" plan having taken place, we're ripping baseball operations for not having enough bullpen depth to compete? You've got to be kidding me.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 11:28 PM) Some posters are saying the bullpen is the last to be fixed. My point is he did address the bullpen during this rebuild. It's like some are saying you should fix the everyday lineup first, then the bullpen. He did also try to fix the bullpen, but failed miserably. I'm just perplexed some people think he has yet to address the bullpen. He has ... he's just failed at it so far. Right greg, but he COULD have spent a lot more time, money, and trade chips on it to give it a better shot, but doing so would have been completely irresponsible because expensive bullpens are a waste of resources on bad teams. And what we had at the time was a BAD team with some new acquisitions that would hopefully work out. Now that most of those acquisitions have worked out, we have the core of a decent team, we have enough information to start pushing more chips into the middle. Those of you that are advocating a complete hail mary every year need to realize that that very rarely ever works out and that the cost of missing is that you end up like the Phillies, Cubs, or Astros. Hahn's plan is to be patient and do this right, and we're all going to be very happy about it pretty soon.

QUOTE (VAfan @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 07:59 PM) Why is building a solid core of young position players and starting pitchers, AND having a plan for a competent bullpen MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE?? I guarantee that's NOT how Rick Hahn sees it. If he did -- if he had your approach -- he SHOULD be fired. The simple fact is the Sox could have fielded a much better bullpen without spending a lot more money. Rick Hahn made some very bad investments, and took far too much risk hoping that Nate Jones could step into the closing role and everyone else would fall in behind him. For that, he deserves the fair criticism I've raised here. Are you enjoying the Sox 2014 season???? Dude this isn't Playstation. You can't just leave time paused until you complete all your deals. Of course he WISHES he had a great bullpen, too, but it was very rightfully NOT the top priority this offseason. You are being completely unreasonable expecting him to have fixed literally every part of this team. Marvel at the progress that was made, ALL of it theoretically sustainable, and look forward to more of it to come. I swear sometimes it feels like people follow sports JUST so they can have a scapegoat for something.

I chose the position player, but it hurt to do it. Bottom line is that Sale is a pitcher and because he is a pitcher he could blow up at literally any minute. That's the only reason to choose Abreu.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 02:07 PM) When should the Sox get the go ahead to build a good bullpen? Maybe as soon as next year. Last year, he rightfully spent the whole offseason upgrading the offense first, and did a goddamn good job of it. If he hadn't, we wouldn't be in pseudo-contention in the first place and this would be a moot point. You guys are taking a season that went WAY better than expected and turning it into a BAD thing somehow. I'm not going to pissed at Hahn because he managed to turn the team around so quickly but fell short of a damn world championship, lol.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 01:55 PM) Hahn knew there was trouble in spring training, when he started claiming waived guys and signing released guys to minor league deals. There has been so much crap in the White Sox bullpen this season we won't remember half of their names in a couple of years. Again, 63-99 doesn't get fixed in one fell swoop. Relief pitchers are notoriously volatile from year to year; it's stupid to build a bullpen that you hope to stay together for several years. This was simply not the year to invest in the bullpen, and it shouldn't have been.

If anyone expected our front office to invest substantial resources in assuring that we had a contender-level bullpen, you haven't been paying much attention to this team over the past 12 months. Sometimes when you take a bunch of shots in the dark, they all miss. This shouldn't be surprising anyone. I don't like it any more than anyone else does, but they FO had a plan that made sense, ownership approved it, and they're following through. You can choose to feel bad about the fact that the offense was better than expected, but I choose to see it as a good thing. This team has stepped up to the point where we may be able to consider ourselves in contention as early as next season. That's fantastic news for a team that went 63-99 just last year.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 4, 2014 -> 07:36 AM) Plan on what exactly ? I'm only saying he has the tools to be great like a lot of guys do but so few actually ever realize. I know he has more upside at this point than either De Aza or Tank but isn't getting the same chance . Get the guy some AB's . He's more important to the future of the Sox at this point than is De Aza . I know Robin want's to win games and put what he thinks is the best lineup out there nearly every day but the guy can run, throw, defend, hit and potentially hit for power. That's more potential and tools than either De Aza or Tank has and his AB's should reflect that because I fear when Avi comes back he will be riding the pine even more than he does now. And De Aza will be gone next year, and he'll get his shot. EDIT: Hopefully Viciedo is gone too.

QUOTE (sin city sox fan @ Aug 3, 2014 -> 04:14 PM) This man has got to go. He's absolutely destroyed the confidence of every member of our bullpen. lol what?

I don't think we should plan on it. Regardless, he could be a good 4th OF piece for us for the next couple years, and that's not insignificant.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Jul 31, 2014 -> 10:55 PM) Today, Rodon took a massive poop. Word is that it included white corn kernels. BUST

From the standpoint of roster construction: when you acquire players, you are acquiring probabilities. That is, each player comes with a range of potential outcomes for each appearance and, by extension, each season. A GM has to make an assessment about what the most likely outcome is for each player he has, weigh the chances of a substantially better or worse outcome, and decide whether or not he is comfortable with said probability holding down the role he has in mind. What we're witnessing is close to the worst possible outcome of this bullpen. Just one pitcher is pitching near what was probably projected as an expected performance. The top two pieces were injured for nearly the entire season, two more pieces pitching close to as poorly as they could realistically be expected to pitch, and the rest pitching below expectations to the point that should have been realistically expected. To me, it doesn't look like there were any surefire signs that these guys were to going to pitch worse than normally (injury, decline), so I chalk this up to bad luck from Hahn's point of view. I don't think there's anything wrong with the process, I think it was just a rough year. I'd expect him to approach building next year's bullpen in a similar fashion, and I'd be pretty happy with him doing so. I certainly wouldn't want him to panic and start paying steeply for Proven Closers™ who have shown to be, at best, BARELY more reliable than a random live arm in terms of sustained effectiveness over several years.